CogPsy - Chapter XII - DecisionMaking I Flashcards
fallacy
error in reasoning
Model of the homo economicus - 3 assumptions:
- HE is fully informed of all possible options and their outcomes
- HE is infinitely sensitive to subtle distinctions among options
- HE is fully rational
Subjective expected utility theory:
human seek pleasure and avoid pain.
2 calculations people do in the subjective expected utility theory:
calculating:
- subjective utility
- subjective probability
Satisficing:
Stopping as soon as a satisfying solution is found.
We are rational but within limits:
bounded rationality
Tversky (1972): Elimination of Aspects
We eliminate alternatives by focusing on aspects, one at a time.
In representativeness we judge the probability of an uncertain event according to:
- how obviously similar it is to the population from which it is drawn
- does it reflect salient features of the process by which it is generated?
Example for representativeness:
H T H H T H T looks more random than H H H H H T H .
Base rate refers to …
… prevalance of an event within its population.
Base rate of a heart attack with 60 is higher than with 10.
Availability heuristics
judgements on the basis of how easily we can call to mind instances of sth.
Anchoring
e.g. anchoring your estimate of a product of numbers on the first few items:
1 x 2 x 3 x 4 vs. 4 x 3 x 2 x 1
Framing
The way options are framed / presented influences your decision.
3 Biases:
- illusiory correlation (seeing correlations where there arent)
- overconfidence
- hindsight bias (looking back on a situation we believe to must have seen all the signs leading up to it -> you wont learn anything from this)
3 Fallacies:
- Gambler’s Fallacy / Hot Hand (having lost 5 times -> of course I must win now!)
- conjunction fallacy (Lisa, the bank teller)
- sunk-cost fallacy (I have already invested a lot in this car, let’s keep doing so)
1 example for a FFH (fast and frugal heuristic)
take-the-best heuristic (choose the single, most important criterion and use it)
Opportunity costs are the …
… prices paid for missed oportunities by choosing another.
Successfull decision groups are:
- small
- have open communication
- members share a common mind-set
- members identify with group
- members agree on acceptable group behavior
3 conditions that may lead to “groupthink”:
- an isolated, homogeneous group is empored to make a decision
- high levels of stress
- objective leadership is absent
6 symptoms of groupthink:
- closed-mindedness
- rationalization
- squelching of dissent
- formation of a “mindguard” (a group norm enforcer)
- feeling invulnerable
- feeling of total agreement among members
Decision making in the brain?
anterior cingulate cortex
Reasoning is the process of drawing conclusions …
… from principles and from evidence.
Deductive reasoning
reasoning from one or more general statements to reach a logically certain conclusion
conditional reasoning involves …
… if-then propositions
modus ponens
if p, then q.
p therefore q
modus tollens
if p, then q.
not q, therefore not p.
Two deductive fallacies:
denying the antecedent: not p -> not q
affirming the consequent q -> p
Rule to confirm in the Wason Selection Task:
“If a card has a consonant on one side, then it has an even number on the other side.”
Instead of formal inference rules it is said that people use …
… pragmatic reasoning schemas.
