CogPsy - Chapter XII - DecisionMaking I

Question 1

fallacy

Answer 1

error in reasoning

Question 2

Model of the homo economicus - 3 assumptions:

Answer 2

• HE is fully informed of all possible options and their outcomes
• HE is infinitely sensitive to subtle distinctions among options
• HE is fully rational

Question 3

Subjective expected utility theory:

Answer 3

human seek pleasure and avoid pain.

Question 4

2 calculations people do in the subjective expected utility theory:

Answer 4

calculating:

• subjective utility
• subjective probability

Question 5

Satisficing:

Answer 5

Stopping as soon as a satisfying solution is found.

Question 6

We are rational but within limits:

Answer 6

bounded rationality

Question 7

Tversky (1972): Elimination of Aspects

Answer 7

We eliminate alternatives by focusing on aspects, one at a time.

Question 8

In representativeness we judge the probability of an uncertain event according to:

Answer 8

• how obviously similar it is to the population from which it is drawn
• does it reflect salient features of the process by which it is generated?

Question 9

Example for representativeness:

Answer 9

H T H H T H T looks more random than H H H H H T H .

Question 10

Base rate refers to …

Answer 10

… prevalance of an event within its population.

Base rate of a heart attack with 60 is higher than with 10.

Question 11

Availability heuristics

Answer 11

judgements on the basis of how easily we can call to mind instances of sth.

Question 12

Anchoring

Answer 12

e.g. anchoring your estimate of a product of numbers on the first few items:
1 x 2 x 3 x 4 vs. 4 x 3 x 2 x 1

Question 13

Framing

Answer 13

The way options are framed / presented influences your decision.

Question 14

3 Biases:

Answer 14

• illusiory correlation (seeing correlations where there arent)
• overconfidence
• hindsight bias (looking back on a situation we believe to must have seen all the signs leading up to it -> you wont learn anything from this)

Question 15

3 Fallacies:

Answer 15

• Gambler’s Fallacy / Hot Hand (having lost 5 times -> of course I must win now!)
• conjunction fallacy (Lisa, the bank teller)
• sunk-cost fallacy (I have already invested a lot in this car, let’s keep doing so)

Question 16

1 example for a FFH (fast and frugal heuristic)

Answer 16

take-the-best heuristic (choose the single, most important criterion and use it)

Question 17

Opportunity costs are the …

Answer 17

… prices paid for missed oportunities by choosing another.

Question 18

Successfull decision groups are:

Answer 18

• small
• have open communication
• members share a common mind-set
• members identify with group
• members agree on acceptable group behavior

Question 19

3 conditions that may lead to “groupthink”:

Answer 19

• an isolated, homogeneous group is empored to make a decision
• high levels of stress
• objective leadership is absent

Question 20

6 symptoms of groupthink:

Answer 20

• closed-mindedness
• rationalization
• squelching of dissent
• formation of a “mindguard” (a group norm enforcer)
• feeling invulnerable
• feeling of total agreement among members

Question 21

Decision making in the brain?

Answer 21

anterior cingulate cortex

Question 22

Reasoning is the process of drawing conclusions …

Answer 22

… from principles and from evidence.

Question 23

Deductive reasoning

Answer 23

reasoning from one or more general statements to reach a logically certain conclusion

Question 24

conditional reasoning involves …

Answer 24

… if-then propositions

Question 25

modus ponens

Answer 25

if p, then q.

p therefore q

Question 26

modus tollens

Answer 26

if p, then q.

not q, therefore not p.

Question 27

Two deductive fallacies:

Answer 27

denying the antecedent: not p -> not q

affirming the consequent q -> p

Question 28

Rule to confirm in the Wason Selection Task:

Answer 28

“If a card has a consonant on one side, then it has an even number on the other side.”

Question 29

Instead of formal inference rules it is said that people use …

Answer 29

… pragmatic reasoning schemas.