Voting Behaviour And The Media- Opinion Polls Flashcards
Opinion polls
Opinion polls are carried out by research organisations using a sample of typical voters. They are mainly used to establish voting intention.
What can opinion polls be used for ?
Establish voting intention
Assess leaders’ popularity
Asses the salience of specific issues
The main debates surrounding opinion polls centre upon the following:
+ whether their use during a general election campaign may affect how
people eventually cast their ballot
+ whether the accuracy of opinion polls can be trusted
+ their role in affecting party policy
Opinion polls are influential:
Their results may shape the way people cast their vote.
Opinion polls seem to influence party policy.
Opinion polls are influential:
Their results may shape the way people cast their vote.
+ 1992: Most polls suggested that Labour would win the general election, which may have encouraged wavering, undecided voters to back the then Conservative government out of fear of a Labour administration led by Neil Kinnock.
+ 2015: The closeness of the polls led to Conservative efforts to warn about the possibility of a Labour-SNP coalition, which may have helped shift the electior in favour of a small Tory majority.
Opinion polls are influential:
Opinion polls seem to influence party policy.
+ Polls showed that immigration became an important issue to voters after 2010, hence successive Conservative pledges to limit net migration to the ‘tens of thousands’.
Limits of opinion poll influence
Opinion polls have proven to be inaccurate
Opinion polls may be affected by party policy rather than the other way around.
Limits of opinion poll influence
Opinion polls have proven to be inaccurate
Opinion polls may be affected by party policy rather than the other way around.
Limits of opinion poll influence
Opinion polls have proven to be inaccurate
+ 2017: Most polls predicted a
comfortable Conservative majority and didn’t pick up the ‘youthquake’, an increase in younger voters who were prepared to turn up at voting booths and vote for Labour candidates.
+ 2016 EU referendum: The polls indicated that the Remain side would win and yet it didn’t.
Limits of opinion poll influence
Opinion polls may be affected by party policy rather than the other way around.
+ Arguably, Labour’s manifesto in 2017 shifted and shaped opinion on public spending.
Should the publication of opinion polls be banned in the run-up to elections?
For banning them
They may influence the way people vote.If the polls are showing a clear outcome one way or another, that might discourage people from voting at all.
They have proved to be inaccurate, so they mislead the public. Some may have voted to leave the EU as a protest, as they expected the outcome would be ‘Remain’ and their vote would not matter.
Arguably politicians should not be slaves to changing public opinion as expressed in the polls, which may in any case be inaccurate.
Multiple countries ban the release of opinion polls, including countries such as Canada and France, which have similar political and democratic systems to the UK.
Should the publication of opinion polls be banned in the run-up to elections?
Against banning them
It would infringe the principle of freedom of expression.
If they are banned, they will still continue to be available privately for organisations that can afford to pay for them.
Polls give valuable information about people’s attitudes, which can help politicians respond to their concerns.
They would probably still be published abroad and people could access them through the internet.
Should the publication of opinion polls be banned in the run-up to elections?
Against banning them
It would infringe the principle of freedom of expression.
If they are banned, they will still continue to be available privately for organisations that can afford to pay for them.
Polls give valuable information about people’s attitudes, which can help politicians respond to their concerns.
They would probably still be published abroad and people could access them through the internet.
