S: 3.4 - 3.6 Flashcards
3.4 overall
Why is there ongoing conflict in Middle East
6 sources of instability:
- religion
- governance
- youth
- oil/gas
- resources
- history
Religion
- Sunni vs Shia
- Saudi Arabia vs Iraq
- Sunni dominance in Iraq overturned, leaving militant groups to join up with Syria Sunnis
Governance
• Post-colonial new countries
• Religion and ethnicity > national identity
• Returning to original groupings, e.g. Kurds in NW Iraq and SE Turkey
• Palestinians rep. by Hezbollah and Hamas
Youth
• High unemployment
• Relatively low educated, disaffected adults
• Huge frustration underpinned Arab Spring
Oil gas
• 65% of oil originated here
• Kuwait invaded by Iraq in 1990, leading to Gulf Wars 1 and 2 – and Saudi help from USA, (not OBL Resources)
• El-Nino in 2008 triggered food price rises, demonstrations and riots
Resources
• Lack of food / water
• El-Nino in 2008 triggered food price rises, demonstrations and riots
History
• Arbitrary borders left by colonialism, Post-WW2 Israeli settlements, Palestinian resettlement
Iraq:
• Multi ethnic country in Middle East - Arab majority and Kurds largest minority.
• Islam (95%) - Sunni (42%) & Shia (52%)
• 5th largest reserves of crude oil - production make up 95% of foreign export earnings.
• 17% unemployment rate, but higher (30%) amongst young
Middle East
Is all a big power play between Shia Iraq and Sunni Saudi, who fund proxy wars over religious identity and sectarian wars.
USA is involved as they have geopolitical ties with most of the countries involved, e.g. Pakistan. Also its 5th fleet based in Bahrain.
3.5 overall
- why isn’t running post industrial UK straightforward, economic restructuring continues to sap at our global authority
- existing superpowers face ongoing economic restructuring, which challenges their power
DEBT
• Increased after 2008 recession (budget deficit will probably increase)
• Eurozone debt is $9.7trillion (2016) - 90% of annual GDP.
• Unemployment at 10%… And not many innovative TNCs
Unemployment
• Competition, efficiency, and more creativity in emerging and developing countries.
• Old-fashioned supply chains, rather than outsourcing – companies collapse
• European TNCs are being taken over emerging world conglomerates, e.g. Tata
• Western selling is vulnerable to prices changes, and consumer spending in Asia
Economic restructuring
• Shift towards tertiary and quaternary
• UK education is falling behind (19/30th for low skills 24th for GCSE and A-level and 11th for high skills) – OECD 2014)
• Disadvantaged, unskilled communities can’t get jobs, don’t have trade unions, voices aren’t heard (e.g. Brexit)
Social costs
• Ageing population, workforce decline – social pension budget is unbalanced
• Deindustrialised decaying living environment, fewer maintained public spaces
• Limits children’s gross motor development and social skills
• Increasing political disaffection – e.g. USA affordable health care and race relations, Youth unemployment in Greece and Spain
But some big opportunities
• Some large innovative global TNCs, e.g. Apple, Google, Facebook
• Increased research in AI, Green Technology, Nano-Technology, Biotechnology
Why would u wanna spend money on military?
• Are you unmatched by another country?
• quite a few serious, recent conflicts, e.g. Iraq / Afghanistan / Georgia / Ukraine
• stimulates high-tech R&D, strategic thinking
• can’t solve all problems just talking
• Isn’t cultural influence a better way your ideology shared?
• Aren’t aircraft carriers huge floating missile targets?
• You need a large population to sustain a large military force
4 key areas of WMP
Navy
Nuclear deterrent
Air power
Intelligence
Navy
• Aircraft carriers are seen as vital, but are vulnerable to land based missile technology.
• Although the cost of defence is higher than attack, new laser based technology is vital for lowering costs.
• UK gov has reduced aircraft carriers to two ships, but fitting of military equipment will cost around £6 billion including the purchase of the aircraft
Nuclear deterrent
• A political and cultural debate. Corbyn rejected the need for air strikes against targets in Syria, and the need to maintain and deploy an expensive replacement for Trident.
• Arguably unnecessary as nuclear weapons were never deployed in the cold war, yet others argues that the deterrent worked and so the investment was worth it.
• Many other emerging superpowers have nuclear capability. In July 2016 80% of MPs voted to renew Trident
Air power
• Although fighter jets are being replaced, autonomous drones are cheaper in the long term. They are more agile and precise and can destroy targets in hostile environments.
• Larger bombers have been built but need to be done so in a way that they can be upgraded in the future rather than replaced. NATO are spending more on military air power
Intelligence
• AI, satellite technology and human spies are necessary.
• There is a strong possibility of cyber attack due to computerised global network and so there is debate about the personnel needed
EU + USA economic challenges
EU - debt in eurozone 9.7 trillion, 90% annual gdp, unemployment 10% in 2016
USA - debt 19 trillion but bare innovative TNCs
EU + USA demographic challenges
EU: by 2025, 20% EU over 65, workforce will drop by 14% by 2030, population projected to fall after 2035
USA - population still growing quickly, and not ageing rapidly
EU + USA political challenges
EU: tensions within EU as countries want deeper or less union - Brexit
USA: race relations, libs vs reps
EU + USA resource challenges
EU - over reliance on Russian oil and gas as seen recently
USA - increasingly energy secure as a result of oil and gas fracking, but water insecurity around southwest
3.6 overall
How will global power change in the future
Scenario set 1
• Worst case: protectionism / deglobalisation
• Best case: US/China collaboration (food / water etc)
• Inequalities – EU governance replaced by extremist / state governance
• Restructure – challenge to elite, using the internet, by middle- and emergingincome groups
Scenario set 2
• Unipolar – US dominance, China fails (demography)
• Multi-polar – EU/US decline, regional power influences (e.g. Saudi Arabia)
• Bi-polar (New Cold War) – China and US compete, and global ideological alignment
• Asian Century – EU/US decline replaced by Asian shift, led by China
how to judge impact of global power change?
- For stability – jostling for authority, many national views, individuals and the internet vs governance and structures (UN / EU / SOC)
• For military activity: military expansion, or cooperation, who allies with who? Power balance
• For resources: continued exploitation, or innovation into new more efficient technology (or will this require new rare earth minerals)
• For economics: growing wealth means more consumption, impact on supply / demand and global trade?
• For environment: global warming and pollution, or multi-government action (impact on water supply?)
• For inequality: increasing divide? Or cultural globalisation? Continued TNC exploitation?
• For governance: neo-Colonialism, and changed power balances or cooperation (e.g. Pacific Free Trade Zone)
Key evidence
• Waldorf Astoria – still managed by Hilton (US), but owned by Chinese
• US aircraft carriers, ecommerce and social media
• Hollywood
Key changes
• Individual / radical empowerment
• Urbanisation
• Ageing population
• Resource demand (resilience?)
