S: 3.4 - 3.6

Question 1

3.4 overall

Answer 1

Why is there ongoing conflict in Middle East

Question 2

6 sources of instability:

Answer 2

• religion
• governance
• youth
• oil/gas
• resources
• history

Question 3

Religion

Answer 3

• Sunni vs Shia
• Saudi Arabia vs Iraq
• Sunni dominance in Iraq overturned, leaving militant groups to join up with Syria Sunnis

Question 4

Governance

Answer 4

• Post-colonial new countries
• Religion and ethnicity > national identity
• Returning to original groupings, e.g. Kurds in NW Iraq and SE Turkey
• Palestinians rep. by Hezbollah and Hamas

Question 5

Youth

Answer 5

• High unemployment
• Relatively low educated, disaffected adults
• Huge frustration underpinned Arab Spring

Question 6

Oil gas

Answer 6

• 65% of oil originated here
• Kuwait invaded by Iraq in 1990, leading to Gulf Wars 1 and 2 – and Saudi help from USA, (not OBL Resources)
• El-Nino in 2008 triggered food price rises, demonstrations and riots

Question 7

Resources

Answer 7

• Lack of food / water
• El-Nino in 2008 triggered food price rises, demonstrations and riots

Question 8

History

Answer 8

• Arbitrary borders left by colonialism, Post-WW2 Israeli settlements, Palestinian resettlement

Question 9

Iraq:

Answer 9

• Multi ethnic country in Middle East - Arab majority and Kurds largest minority.
• Islam (95%) - Sunni (42%) & Shia (52%)
• 5th largest reserves of crude oil - production make up 95% of foreign export earnings.
• 17% unemployment rate, but higher (30%) amongst young

Question 10

Middle East

Answer 10

Is all a big power play between Shia Iraq and Sunni Saudi, who fund proxy wars over religious identity and sectarian wars.

USA is involved as they have geopolitical ties with most of the countries involved, e.g. Pakistan. Also its 5th fleet based in Bahrain.

Question 11

3.5 overall

Answer 11

• why isn’t running post industrial UK straightforward, economic restructuring continues to sap at our global authority
• existing superpowers face ongoing economic restructuring, which challenges their power

Question 12

DEBT

Answer 12

• Increased after 2008 recession (budget deficit will probably increase)
• Eurozone debt is $9.7trillion (2016) - 90% of annual GDP.
• Unemployment at 10%… And not many innovative TNCs

Question 13

Unemployment

Answer 13

• Competition, efficiency, and more creativity in emerging and developing countries.
• Old-fashioned supply chains, rather than outsourcing – companies collapse
• European TNCs are being taken over emerging world conglomerates, e.g. Tata
• Western selling is vulnerable to prices changes, and consumer spending in Asia

Question 14

Economic restructuring

Answer 14

• Shift towards tertiary and quaternary
• UK education is falling behind (19/30th for low skills 24th for GCSE and A-level and 11th for high skills) – OECD 2014)
• Disadvantaged, unskilled communities can’t get jobs, don’t have trade unions, voices aren’t heard (e.g. Brexit)

Question 15

Social costs

Answer 15

• Ageing population, workforce decline – social pension budget is unbalanced
• Deindustrialised decaying living environment, fewer maintained public spaces
• Limits children’s gross motor development and social skills
• Increasing political disaffection – e.g. USA affordable health care and race relations, Youth unemployment in Greece and Spain

Question 16

But some big opportunities

Answer 16

• Some large innovative global TNCs, e.g. Apple, Google, Facebook
• Increased research in AI, Green Technology, Nano-Technology, Biotechnology

Question 17

Why would u wanna spend money on military?

Answer 17

• Are you unmatched by another country?
• quite a few serious, recent conflicts, e.g. Iraq / Afghanistan / Georgia / Ukraine
• stimulates high-tech R&D, strategic thinking
• can’t solve all problems just talking
• Isn’t cultural influence a better way your ideology shared?
• Aren’t aircraft carriers huge floating missile targets?
• You need a large population to sustain a large military force

Question 18

4 key areas of WMP

Answer 18

Navy
Nuclear deterrent
Air power
Intelligence

Question 19

Navy

Answer 19

• Aircraft carriers are seen as vital, but are vulnerable to land based missile technology.
• Although the cost of defence is higher than attack, new laser based technology is vital for lowering costs.
• UK gov has reduced aircraft carriers to two ships, but fitting of military equipment will cost around £6 billion including the purchase of the aircraft

Question 20

Nuclear deterrent

Answer 20

• A political and cultural debate. Corbyn rejected the need for air strikes against targets in Syria, and the need to maintain and deploy an expensive replacement for Trident.
• Arguably unnecessary as nuclear weapons were never deployed in the cold war, yet others argues that the deterrent worked and so the investment was worth it.
• Many other emerging superpowers have nuclear capability. In July 2016 80% of MPs voted to renew Trident

Question 21

Air power

Answer 21

• Although fighter jets are being replaced, autonomous drones are cheaper in the long term. They are more agile and precise and can destroy targets in hostile environments.
• Larger bombers have been built but need to be done so in a way that they can be upgraded in the future rather than replaced. NATO are spending more on military air power

Question 22

Intelligence

Answer 22

• AI, satellite technology and human spies are necessary.
• There is a strong possibility of cyber attack due to computerised global network and so there is debate about the personnel needed

Question 23

EU + USA economic challenges

Answer 23

EU - debt in eurozone 9.7 trillion, 90% annual gdp, unemployment 10% in 2016

USA - debt 19 trillion but bare innovative TNCs

Question 24

EU + USA demographic challenges

Answer 24

EU: by 2025, 20% EU over 65, workforce will drop by 14% by 2030, population projected to fall after 2035
USA - population still growing quickly, and not ageing rapidly

Question 25

EU + USA political challenges

Answer 25

EU: tensions within EU as countries want deeper or less union - Brexit
USA: race relations, libs vs reps

Question 26

EU + USA resource challenges

Answer 26

EU - over reliance on Russian oil and gas as seen recently
USA - increasingly energy secure as a result of oil and gas fracking, but water insecurity around southwest

Question 27

3.6 overall

Answer 27

How will global power change in the future

Question 28

Scenario set 1

Answer 28

• Worst case: protectionism / deglobalisation
• Best case: US/China collaboration (food / water etc)
• Inequalities – EU governance replaced by extremist / state governance
• Restructure – challenge to elite, using the internet, by middle- and emergingincome groups

Question 29

Scenario set 2

Answer 29

• Unipolar – US dominance, China fails (demography)
• Multi-polar – EU/US decline, regional power influences (e.g. Saudi Arabia)
• Bi-polar (New Cold War) – China and US compete, and global ideological alignment
• Asian Century – EU/US decline replaced by Asian shift, led by China

Question 30

how to judge impact of global power change?

Answer 30

• For stability – jostling for authority, many national views, individuals and the internet vs governance and structures (UN / EU / SOC)
  • For military activity: military expansion, or cooperation, who allies with who? Power balance
  • For resources: continued exploitation, or innovation into new more efficient technology (or will this require new rare earth minerals)
  • For economics: growing wealth means more consumption, impact on supply / demand and global trade?
  • For environment: global warming and pollution, or multi-government action (impact on water supply?)
  • For inequality: increasing divide? Or cultural globalisation? Continued TNC exploitation?
  • For governance: neo-Colonialism, and changed power balances or cooperation (e.g. Pacific Free Trade Zone)

Question 31

Key evidence

Answer 31

• Waldorf Astoria – still managed by Hilton (US), but owned by Chinese
• US aircraft carriers, ecommerce and social media
• Hollywood

Question 32

Key changes

Answer 32

• Individual / radical empowerment
• Urbanisation
• Ageing population
• Resource demand (resilience?)