S: 3.1 - 3.3 Flashcards
3.1 overall
Global influence is contested in a number of different economic, environmental and political spheres.
How will superpowers exploit physical resources - look at the arctic
Contested Arctic:
- One of few remaining wilderness locations, with biomes significant globally.
- However, there is growing pressure to exploit natural resources as well as open region up to commercial shipping and tourism
- Rising oil and gas prices make difficult extraction financially viable.
- Climate change is opening up shipping lanes (NW passage)
- Ownership of the arctic is contested, as superpowers attempt to exert control over it
Gas prices + oil prices
Gas prices rising from 65p in march 2021, to 282p per therm in march 2022
Oil prices from 30 dollar in 2016, to 105 in 2022
Why even get resources?
- Consumption and production both require resources
- Competition drives production which drives economic growth.
- Governments need economic growth to avoid social unrest
Env impacts of getting impacts
- Pollution, habitat destruction, GHG emissions, land degradation
- This influences political legitimacy in local and domestic areas
How do u get resources?
- Hard and soft power allows countries to secure resources in other parts of the globe.
- TNCs extract raw materials
- Negotiation with foreign governments can ignore wishes of local people
Challenges of getting resources
- Geopolitics - some countries may have monopolies on certain resources (OPEC)
- Green politics - refusal to grant extraction rights
- Over reliance - Germany reliance on Russian gas
Why is the arctic in particular contested?
- Natural resources - fishing, mining, oil extraction.
- Climate change and higher prices make extraction easier (melting ice) and financially viable
- Contested for who has influence in these regions
- Resource exploitation vs environmental protection in rare wilderness region
- Competing claims of ownership - mostly frozen ocean with overlapping claims (20 miles EEZs)
Disputes over arctic land
- us and Canada about boundaries of Beaufort sea
- us and Russia with maritime border Between Bering sea and Arctic Ocean
Arctic losses
In 2010, loss of arctic canoe ice and over a estimated it cost world 61 billion - 731 in lost climate cooling services
- by 2050 cumulative global cost from 2.4 to 24.1 trillion
ARCTIC WARMING
Since 1951 arctic has warmed roughly twice as much as global average, a 2 oC increase in temp would mean 3-6 oC rise in arctic
3.2 overall
When does physical space create political tension - china and spratly islands
Chinese claims
- China claims islands within east and south, up to 9. Dash line
- Benefits are natural resources like oil and gas in Sendak islands, extending EEZ - 220 nautical miles into east and south china seas, control worlds busiest shipping lanes - 30% of global trade
- Puts china conflict with countries in the USA’s sphere of influence, since WW2, USA has had significant influence over this region.
- China is becoming more forceful in its claims - militarisation of islanders, building new lands
Spheres of
Influence
What are spheres of influence
- A reference from colonialism
- Areas of the world linked by the same culture - hard power and soft power
- It’s the spatial extent of your level of control
Who else is affected by sphere of influence
- Those on edge may become contested spaces
- Like the accession 8 countries
What might get u conflict within spheres of influence
- Changed balance of power - nuclear weapons
- Disputed territories are visited by high ranking officials
- Military sabre rattling - exaggerated military threats
- When new resources are found - like the falklands when Argentina and England both claimed land after the oil was discovered there
Spratly islands - who cares
- Worlds busiest shipping lanes (30% of global trade)
- 200 nautical miles influence control much of South China Sea
- very little natural resources - 2km natural land
- claimed by 6 countries
- China is building airstrips
- Philippines pays citizens to live on the islands
- Filipino Navy can’t compete with Chinese
Resolving spratly dispute
- JUL 16: international tribute - ruled in favour of the Philippines, saying china has no basis to claim historic rights in SCS
- But China is concerned about ocean control, 1st island chain, also the 9 dash policy is involved
Overall is china a threat
- Trade relationships might be more important, and USA still controls world trade, IMF voting power
- USA blue water navy is much stronger, and has allies in Asia
- China has rural poverty, pollution issues, lack of military power, limited cultural influence and issues over Human Rights - and also lacks home grown TNCs
Potential economic threat from china
• Major player in global manufacturing
- Key global leader in some sectors e.g. renewable energy
• Generates wealth and rising incomes, although a fraction of the USA on a per capita basis;
• Lacks global brands
• China’s economic power might be judged as its most significant source of power
Chine political power
• A lack of internal democracy and openness - viewed with suspicion by traditional Western powers,
• A lack of willingness to act globally unless its direct interests are threatened
• Could say that not getting involved is strength, allowing China to focus on its own development
China cultural threat
• Much less global influence – less than India
• But the Beijing Olympics in 2008 did give China a global stage;
• Lack of global brands means it’s cultural reach is relatively small though
China military threat
• Some way behind the USA; a large standing army and air force,
• Lacks the global naval military reach of USA, but is developing
• A nuclear armed power which gives it a seat at the ‘top table
Other considerations around chinas threat
• Sheer scale of China economically and demographically - means its influence is large and almost bound to grow over time, assuming its economic strength continues to increase.
• A number of wider weaknesses could be considered including a rapidly ageing population, major environmental issues and the possibility of regional conflict with its neighbours, these could all derail its progress as an emerging power
Superpowers create problems:
• Superpower governments need to legitimise their power, and energises their domestic support
• Consumption (e.g. cars) necessitates resource extraction – e.g. deep water oil drilling / or fracking
• LT climate change / pollution of waterways is a concern
Superpowers don’t create problems environ mainly
• Environmental problems are always 2ndto economic and social
• Some foreign governments are demanding things in return for resource extraction – e.g. Angola
• Potential Superpowers now have to compete for soft power influence
• Green Politics is increasingly influential, particularly as science becomes firmer and clearer
3.3 overall
Developing nations have changing relationships with superpowers with consequences for people and the physical environment.
- Will India’s demographics help it surpass china in the long term?
Senkaku islands
- Islands in East China Sea, controlled by japan since 19th century, china contesting their sovereignty since 1970s
- 2012 - Japan’s gov purchased the 3 largest islands from their private owner.
- Close to valuable offshore oil and gas fields that would fall into the EEZ of the country that controls the islands
Conflict at spratly
- China building military bases and enlarging islands it controls
- Philippines paying people to live on islands it controls and buying US navy equipment
- July 16 : international tribunal ruled in favour of Philippines, saying china has no basis to claim historic rights in county china sea
- UNCLOS - convention on law of the sea says you can’t build in contested areas
Conflict at senkaku
- Japan insists islands were surveyed and controlled since 1895, china disputes this.
- Militarisation of the army from both sides - china navy sailed pass in 2016 and japan deployed 12 offshore patrol vessels
- China declared airspace under their control - planes have to register with china
- Symbolic in china - Chinese nationalists held protests in 85 cities in 2012
Indias economy
• Quite stop-start, with fluctuating growth rates – this might deter investment
• Less hi-tech and more basic commodities, i.e. it depends a lot on imported oil (30%), so it’s vulnerable to price fluctuations.
• The number of world class companies has stalled, but it has some, e.g. Tata
• Performs poorly in ‘Doing Business’, because of bureaucracy and this limits potential FDI
Indias governance
• Companies are state-owned - , quite inefficient and subsidies, particularly for the poor, i.e. they could spend the money elsewhere
• There is still some protectionism – protecting domestic jobs. This deters FDI (not as cost effective as it could be)
India’s politics
• Still quite a lot of poverty, which drags on the economy, i.e. untapped potential
• India does not always meet basic needs – e.g. rural poverty, slums in Dharavi
• Govt is spending lots on subsidies to try and revolve this – e.g. toilets
• India’s education system is less well funded
• Slightly better environmental track record
Is India an emerging superpower?
o Demographics – large demographic dividend, i.e. a large working age population without a large ageing one to support
BUT: Caste system, general inequality and corruption, poor state governance
o Economically – India is poorer – low wage and poverty
o Military – budget capped, but it is a nuclear power, but probably would only use it regionally
Threats to potential superpower status for India
- can it feed and water everyone?
- where spend money to become global power?
India global competitiveness 2015
• 3rd largest national market after China and the US.
• Growth rate though (7.5%) was higher than China’s and population continues to grow.
• Democratic nation: it is easier to counter corruption.
• Reforms dismantled India’s state controlled economy by privatising parts of it.
• Golden Quadrilateral project, rural health care, national security and education have all seen invested
India political relations
• Improved diplomatic relations with Afghanistan - India is the largest aid donor.
• China is an important trade partner
• USA has supported development of nuclear reactors.
• BRIC country and a member of the commonwealth.
• Desire for permanent membership of the UN, but there are controversies, such as disputes with Pakistan and Bangladesh
Emerging market in India
• Graduates are highly entrepreneurial - technology start ups and a space programme.
• Majority of workers are under 25 and fluent in English.
• Bollywood sold 3.6 billion tickets in 2014/ (2.6 billion HW).
• Tourism contributes 6% of GDP.
• The Indian ocean remains a key sea trade route and there are natural harbours
Will India become a superpower? part 1
- 3rd highest total gdp in Asia
- closing gap on china in % econ growth
- high reliance on crude oil imports 30%
- exports 20% petroleum
- 11 -> 8 Fortune 500
Will India become a superpower? part 2
- low ranking to start a business - horror bureaucracy
- not increasing military spending
- due to be most populated in 2023
- very young population
- overpopulation + high inequality
