S: 3.1 - 3.3 Flashcards
1
Q
3.1 overall
A
Global influence is contested in a number of different economic, environmental and political spheres.
How will superpowers exploit physical resources - look at the arctic
2
Q
Contested Arctic:
A
- One of few remaining wilderness locations, with biomes significant globally.
- However, there is growing pressure to exploit natural resources as well as open region up to commercial shipping and tourism
- Rising oil and gas prices make difficult extraction financially viable.
- Climate change is opening up shipping lanes (NW passage)
- Ownership of the arctic is contested, as superpowers attempt to exert control over it
3
Q
Gas prices + oil prices
A
Gas prices rising from 65p in march 2021, to 282p per therm in march 2022
Oil prices from 30 dollar in 2016, to 105 in 2022
4
Q
Why even get resources?
A
- Consumption and production both require resources
- Competition drives production which drives economic growth.
- Governments need economic growth to avoid social unrest
5
Q
Env impacts of getting impacts
A
- Pollution, habitat destruction, GHG emissions, land degradation
- This influences political legitimacy in local and domestic areas
6
Q
How do u get resources?
A
- Hard and soft power allows countries to secure resources in other parts of the globe.
- TNCs extract raw materials
- Negotiation with foreign governments can ignore wishes of local people
7
Q
Challenges of getting resources
A
- Geopolitics - some countries may have monopolies on certain resources (OPEC)
- Green politics - refusal to grant extraction rights
- Over reliance - Germany reliance on Russian gas
8
Q
Why is the arctic in particular contested?
A
- Natural resources - fishing, mining, oil extraction.
- Climate change and higher prices make extraction easier (melting ice) and financially viable
- Contested for who has influence in these regions
- Resource exploitation vs environmental protection in rare wilderness region
- Competing claims of ownership - mostly frozen ocean with overlapping claims (20 miles EEZs)
9
Q
Disputes over arctic land
A
- us and Canada about boundaries of Beaufort sea
- us and Russia with maritime border Between Bering sea and Arctic Ocean
10
Q
Arctic losses
A
In 2010, loss of arctic canoe ice and over a estimated it cost world 61 billion - 731 in lost climate cooling services
- by 2050 cumulative global cost from 2.4 to 24.1 trillion
11
Q
ARCTIC WARMING
A
Since 1951 arctic has warmed roughly twice as much as global average, a 2 oC increase in temp would mean 3-6 oC rise in arctic
12
Q
3.2 overall
A
When does physical space create political tension - china and spratly islands
13
Q
Chinese claims
A
- China claims islands within east and south, up to 9. Dash line
- Benefits are natural resources like oil and gas in Sendak islands, extending EEZ - 220 nautical miles into east and south china seas, control worlds busiest shipping lanes - 30% of global trade
- Puts china conflict with countries in the USA’s sphere of influence, since WW2, USA has had significant influence over this region.
- China is becoming more forceful in its claims - militarisation of islanders, building new lands
14
Q
Spheres of
A
Influence
15
Q
What are spheres of influence
A
- A reference from colonialism
- Areas of the world linked by the same culture - hard power and soft power
- It’s the spatial extent of your level of control
16
Q
Who else is affected by sphere of influence
A
- Those on edge may become contested spaces
- Like the accession 8 countries
17
Q
What might get u conflict within spheres of influence
A
- Changed balance of power - nuclear weapons
- Disputed territories are visited by high ranking officials
- Military sabre rattling - exaggerated military threats
- When new resources are found - like the falklands when Argentina and England both claimed land after the oil was discovered there
18
Q
Spratly islands - who cares
A
- Worlds busiest shipping lanes (30% of global trade)
- 200 nautical miles influence control much of South China Sea
- very little natural resources - 2km natural land
- claimed by 6 countries
- China is building airstrips
- Philippines pays citizens to live on the islands
- Filipino Navy can’t compete with Chinese
19
Q
Resolving spratly dispute
A
- JUL 16: international tribute - ruled in favour of the Philippines, saying china has no basis to claim historic rights in SCS
- But China is concerned about ocean control, 1st island chain, also the 9 dash policy is involved
20
Q
Overall is china a threat
A
- Trade relationships might be more important, and USA still controls world trade, IMF voting power
- USA blue water navy is much stronger, and has allies in Asia
- China has rural poverty, pollution issues, lack of military power, limited cultural influence and issues over Human Rights - and also lacks home grown TNCs
21
Q
Potential economic threat from china
A
• Major player in global manufacturing
- Key global leader in some sectors e.g. renewable energy
• Generates wealth and rising incomes, although a fraction of the USA on a per capita basis;
• Lacks global brands
• China’s economic power might be judged as its most significant source of power
22
Q
Chine political power
A
• A lack of internal democracy and openness - viewed with suspicion by traditional Western powers,
• A lack of willingness to act globally unless its direct interests are threatened
• Could say that not getting involved is strength, allowing China to focus on its own development
23
Q
China cultural threat
A
• Much less global influence – less than India
• But the Beijing Olympics in 2008 did give China a global stage;
• Lack of global brands means it’s cultural reach is relatively small though
24
Q
China military threat
A
• Some way behind the USA; a large standing army and air force,
• Lacks the global naval military reach of USA, but is developing
• A nuclear armed power which gives it a seat at the ‘top table
25
Other considerations around chinas threat
• Sheer scale of China economically and demographically - means its influence is large and almost bound to grow over time, assuming its economic strength continues to increase.
• A number of wider weaknesses could be considered including a rapidly ageing population, major environmental issues and the possibility of regional conflict with its neighbours, these could all derail its progress as an emerging power
26
Superpowers create problems:
• Superpower governments need to legitimise their power, and energises their domestic support
• Consumption (e.g. cars) necessitates resource extraction – e.g. deep water oil drilling / or fracking
• LT climate change / pollution of waterways is a concern
27
Superpowers don’t create problems environ mainly
• Environmental problems are always 2ndto economic and social
• Some foreign governments are demanding things in return for resource extraction – e.g. Angola
• Potential Superpowers now have to compete for soft power influence
• Green Politics is increasingly influential, particularly as science becomes firmer and clearer
28
3.3 overall
Developing nations have changing relationships with superpowers with consequences for people and the physical environment.
- Will India’s demographics help it surpass china in the long term?
29
Senkaku islands
- Islands in East China Sea, controlled by japan since 19th century, china contesting their sovereignty since 1970s
- 2012 - Japan’s gov purchased the 3 largest islands from their private owner.
- Close to valuable offshore oil and gas fields that would fall into the EEZ of the country that controls the islands
30
Conflict at spratly
- China building military bases and enlarging islands it controls
- Philippines paying people to live on islands it controls and buying US navy equipment
- July 16 : international tribunal ruled in favour of Philippines, saying china has no basis to claim historic rights in county china sea
- UNCLOS - convention on law of the sea says you can’t build in contested areas
31
Conflict at senkaku
- Japan insists islands were surveyed and controlled since 1895, china disputes this.
- Militarisation of the army from both sides - china navy sailed pass in 2016 and japan deployed 12 offshore patrol vessels
- China declared airspace under their control - planes have to register with china
- Symbolic in china - Chinese nationalists held protests in 85 cities in 2012
32
Indias economy
• Quite stop-start, with fluctuating growth rates – this might deter investment
• Less hi-tech and more basic commodities, i.e. it depends a lot on imported oil (30%), so it’s vulnerable to price fluctuations.
• The number of world class companies has stalled, but it has some, e.g. Tata
• Performs poorly in ‘Doing Business’, because of bureaucracy and this limits potential FDI
33
Indias governance
• Companies are state-owned - , quite inefficient and subsidies, particularly for the poor, i.e. they could spend the money elsewhere
• There is still some protectionism – protecting domestic jobs. This deters FDI (not as cost effective as it could be)
34
India’s politics
• Still quite a lot of poverty, which drags on the economy, i.e. untapped potential
• India does not always meet basic needs – e.g. rural poverty, slums in Dharavi
• Govt is spending lots on subsidies to try and revolve this – e.g. toilets
• India’s education system is less well funded
• Slightly better environmental track record
35
Is India an emerging superpower?
o Demographics – large demographic dividend, i.e. a large working age population without a large ageing one to support
BUT: Caste system, general inequality and corruption, poor state governance
o Economically – India is poorer – low wage and poverty
o Military – budget capped, but it is a nuclear power, but probably would only use it regionally
36
Threats to potential superpower status for India
- can it feed and water everyone?
- where spend money to become global power?
37
India global competitiveness 2015
• 3rd largest national market after China and the US.
• Growth rate though (7.5%) was higher than China’s and population continues to grow.
• Democratic nation: it is easier to counter corruption.
• Reforms dismantled India’s state controlled economy by privatising parts of it.
• Golden Quadrilateral project, rural health care, national security and education have all seen invested
38
India political relations
• Improved diplomatic relations with Afghanistan - India is the largest aid donor.
• China is an important trade partner
• USA has supported development of nuclear reactors.
• BRIC country and a member of the commonwealth.
• Desire for permanent membership of the UN, but there are controversies, such as disputes with Pakistan and Bangladesh
39
Emerging market in India
• Graduates are highly entrepreneurial - technology start ups and a space programme.
• Majority of workers are under 25 and fluent in English.
• Bollywood sold 3.6 billion tickets in 2014/ (2.6 billion HW).
• Tourism contributes 6% of GDP.
• The Indian ocean remains a key sea trade route and there are natural harbours
40
Will India become a superpower? part 1
- 3rd highest total gdp in Asia
- closing gap on china in % econ growth
- high reliance on crude oil imports 30%
- exports 20% petroleum
- 11 -> 8 Fortune 500
41
Will India become a superpower? part 2
- low ranking to start a business - horror bureaucracy
- not increasing military spending
- due to be most populated in 2023
- very young population
- overpopulation + high inequality
