Carbon : 2.1 - 2.4 Flashcards
What is energy security?
The uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price.
What is an energy mix?
Every country has its own energy mix – its the proportion of each type of primary energy resource it utilises within a year
Ukraine energy security risk
International Energy Security Risk Index
- Ukraine has worst score of any European country in large energy group!
• Over 175% higher risk (8 metrics ranked in the bottom five)
• But has worlds 7th largest coal reserves
• Recent events:
• Russian Annexation of Crimea 2014
• Anti-Government Rebels in Eastern Ukraine
• EuroMaidan revolution 2014
• Economic recession
Energy mix (transition)
• Pre-industrial: initially it’s a mix of biomass and waste
• Industrialisation: fossil fuels for power stations, oil for transport - domestic sources.
• shift into gas and nuclear
• There might be more reliance on foreign sources of energy
Eventually:
• you get a decrease…
• Growing environmental concerns
• Increased efficiency of appliances
• Lighting technology improveS
Eventually (post industrial):
• Nuclear and renewables (but cost is a limit)
• Sophisticated technology (R&D can be a limit)
• Clean energy sources (is anything clean?
• (Global) environmental / emissions targets (will everyone agree)
• Cost-sensitivity (can’t everyone afford it)
BUT: the use of oil will probably remains high for transport
Why is Ukraine’s energy security so bad?
- low energy efficiency
- high energy, carbon intense consumption
- outdated energy infrastructure
- housing sector is four times less energy efficient than the average west European country
- inefficient central heating systems waste enormous amounts of gas
- abundant coal reserves, but most,y lie in Russia controlled regions
Developing countries
- biomass+ waste
- directly used e.g. for cooking
- Limited fossil fuel use - oil for transport, coal for power stations
Emerging economies
- Growth of mass transport + car so oil use rises
- Shift towards gas as tech developed
- develop nuclear power, renewables
- but some won’t, as economic development takes priority over the environment
Developed economies
- Oil remain high as transport fuel, coal declines due to pollution concerns + replacement with cheaper gas
- nuclear power as requires sophisticated + expensive tech
- rise in clean energy sources use due to envrioentmnal concerns + growing sustainability agenda - links to Kuznets
Mozambique:
Ex-Portuguese colony (coffee / dominos)
• 17 year civil war, ended in 1993
• World second poorest country
• 55% live under the poverty line
• Growth rate of 7%/yr, with young education population, will yield demographic dividend
Exploiting resources:
- Commodity dependency - Dutch Disease:
- Colonies were exploited for particular raw materials
- Raw materials have low value - prebisch singer hypothesis
- This yields poor terms of trade vis cost of imports
Mozambique needs a lot of tech imported for like infrastructure
Trade imbalance
- Consumers are MEDC’s, producers are LEDC’s
- Major profits are made by richer countries
- Gas is vulnerable to price spikes or collapse, resulting in uncertain incomes and difficulties for governments trying to plan ahead
Factors which determine if Mozambique may be energy secure
- physical availability
- cost
- technology
- public perception
- levels of economic development
- environmental priorities
Physical availability
Secure:
- 127bn litres gas found in Temane Gas Field - worlds fourth largest reserve
- 350£ of potential energy sources
Insecure:
Only 3.8 exploited so far, majority exported to South Africa
Costs
Secure:
- new tax rules have been introduced on resource sales - the gov will collect 1hr in tax in 2013, from companies that exploit gas
Insecure:
- after infrastructure spending, there will only be £13bn left
- TNCs can’t wait 3 years to work through tax and concession arrangements
Technology
Secure:
- Portugal Japan Ys India UAE Brazil all want to invest into oil and gas, and associated infrastructure, with around 10 bil investment into Mozambique over last 3 years
Public perception
Secure:
- public concern about government exploitation of resources is high - liquid gas and oil was number 1 topic at music festivals
- Australian universities provide geologist, geographers, marine biologists and anthropologists to chance to create a mega team to work with NGOs and the judiciary to help hold Mozambiques government to account for the contracts it gives to develop local infrastructure
Public perception insecure
Land grabs, forced relocations, poor working conditions by mining companies that don’t stick to contracts (building hospitals and schools)
- concerns growing over whether people will start to fight the government if corruption doesn’t end
Level of economic development
Secure:
- in 11-13, there was a 7% GDP growth rate - creating a young, increasingly educated population
Insecure:
- 17yr civil war left 55% of the population below poverty line with very illiterate population that don’t always know their rights to land
Environmental Priorities
Secure:
- young people feel the government is not doing enough to protect the environment and ensure building contracts are issued fairly
Insecure:
35k hectares sold to Anadarko (US company), and 7k hectares of land used for infrastructure. 11 Mozambique communities have been relocated
Players in the energy industry
TNCS
OPEC
Energy companies
Consumers
Governments
The UN predicts global population
10 bil by 2050
Russia and USA have moved towards
Protection of own energy pathways following the geopolitical tensions of the Arab-Israeli war, gulf war
National governments gain revenues from
State owned TNCs and impose high taxes on energy use to fund development
New UN led climate change agreements have
Led to a global focus on environmental protection with many EU countries leading the way in diversifying their energy mixes towards renewables
Pathways
• An inevitable consequence of mismatch between energy supply and demand:
Pathways can be complex because
• Physical Geography - Ocean restricts access to some oil and Hazardous environments e.g. Tundra
• Processing materials has a huge environmental impact
• Human obstacles - Political tension e.g. China and S/E China Sea, Diversions because of hostile states,
- Unstable source location e.g. Libyan Civil War
Results of disruption to a pathway:
• Can lead to recession, job losses, energy shortages, conflict.
• Renewable sources are more ubiquitous - less chance of conflict
Pathways
•Former Soviet States are/will be part of the EU e.g. Georgia.
•South Ossetia wants to be joined with North Ossetia, part of Russia
•BP built a pipeline in 1999 from South Caspian Sea to Turkey/Austria
•Russia has 4 pipelines that run from Siberia to Ukraine and the EU
•Russia could decide to export oil to China
•Nigeria got millions of dollars of investment from the USA to explore new oil fields
Disruptions
•ethnicity of S Ossetia different to rest of Georgia.
•Caucasus at geopolitical cross between West + East
•Asia wants to switch from oil to gas
•Japan, S Korea + Taiwan import 80% Russia’s gas
•Russia planted a flag on Arctic seabed in 2007
•USA withdrew plans of Strategic Defence base in Poland
•Russia has stopped gas supplies to Ukraine in 2008
South Caucasus:
• 3 countries: Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan
• South Ossetia is part of Georgia, but is ethnically Russian
• It has at times wished to be joined with North Ossetia, in Russia, since 1990s
• The capital of South Georgia (Tblisi)
• Desire: to be part of EU and NATO
• Invaded by Russia in 2008
What’s the deal with South Georgia?
- strategic
- ethnic
- economic
- environmental
Strategic problems in South Georgia
• Russia is not keen for another former Soviet country to become part of NATO and the EU on its door steps
• Russia is keen to demonstrate it remains a significant superpower, after its collapse of USSR in 1991
Ethnic problems in South Georgia
• The overlap of ethnicity between N/SOssetia gives Russia grounds to bring the country under Russia control
• Given a choice S Ossetia would probably rather be part of Russia
Economic problems in South Georgia
• The 5th pipeline, built by BP in 1999 represents an alternative source of energy for Europe, making them less dependent on the 4 other pipelines, reducing Russian leverage
• Russia occasionally disrupts gas supplies to Ukraine
Environmental problems in South Georgia
• Russia currently exports much oil/gas to China and S Asia
• Asian countries are trying to convert to increasingly renewable sources of energy
TNCs
the big names in oil and gas include, Shell, Gazprom, ExxonMobil. Nearly half of the top 20 companies are state owned
OPEC
OPEC has 14 member countries, between them own 2/3 of the worlds oil reserves, in a strong position to control the amount of oil and gas entering the global market. Has been accused of holding back production in order to drive up oil and gas prices
Energy companies
companies that convert primary energy into electricity and then distribute it, most companies are involved in the distribution of both gas and electricity, have a considerable influence when it comes to setting consumer prices and tariffs
Consumers
passive players - but their demand drives it all
Governments
geopolitics, protectionism, guardian role.
Pathway disruptions?
Energy pathways are a key aspect of energy security but can be prone to disruption, as seen in Russia
Russian gas to Europe secondary case study
- Russian pipelines pass through Ukraine, with whom Russia have geopolitical tensions with, Ukraine have the power to reduce gas flows or charge extra on them.
- Therefore, Russia has two options, annex all of Ukraine, or reduce the delivery of gas through these threatened pipelines and export more through two northern pipelines that run through Finland and Poland
Factors affecting per capita energy consumption
- physical availability
- Cost
- Standard of living
- Environmental priorities of gov
- Climate
- Public perception
- Tech
- Econ development
Mismatch between supply and demand because
worldwide distribution of fossil fuel supply and demand do not coincide - supply determined by processes of phys geography
Unconventional fossil fuels
- shale gas
- tar sands
- oil shale
- deep water oil
Renewables could help decouple
Fossil fuels and economic growth
