H - 4.2 - 4.5

Question 1

Azerbaijan

Answer 1

Country in the South Caucasus, bordering the Caspian Sea. Former USSR state.
• Conflict with neighbouring Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh: 1988-1994 and 2020. Land around ethnic Armenian enclaves now controlled by Azerbaijan – support from Turkey.
• Controlled by New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) since independence(President Heydar Aliyev then his son Ilham Aliyez).
• Major energy provider – significant oil and gas reserves and possible alternative to Russia via South Caucasus Pipeline.
• Increasingly close relations with China – One Belt, One Road through Azerbaijan

Question 2

The principle

Answer 2

Flawed economies / authoritarian countries always want economic development.
• As they try to achieve economic growth less money can be invested in human wellbeing.
• Regulations and laws promoting economic growth create problems with human rights.
• China - 4.5x increase in GDP – but human rights decreased.
• South Korea: 1.9x, but SK human rights increased

Question 3

Azerbaijan economic progress

Answer 3

Average annual growth of 13% -fastest in the world.
• Poverty fallen from 50% (2000) to 5% today.
• But reliant on hydro-carbons - $35 billion of reserves.
• Equally aware of key transit route on China’s OneRoad, One Belt route by trains (potential for $560bn of two-way trade) – free trade zone at Baku Port.
• Possible alternative to Russia for oil and gas for Europe – new pipeline via Turkey.

Question 4

Azerbaijan political progress

Answer 4

Elections in 2013, 2018 (results
announced after the vote).
• Candidates, albeit fake ones.
• Repression is rising – worry about
Ukraine AND USSR annexation.
• Conflict with Armenia.
• Public Services reformed to create
direct accountability avoid a system of bribery
• Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy is run by international staff, and students encourage to think
freely – will they demand wealth from the elite?

Question 5

The Armenia question

Answer 5

USSR established in 1922 – two states.
• Nagorno Karababkh – ethnic Armenian enclaves.
• Then war in 1988-1994:
• 230,000 Armenians displaced.
• 800,000 Azerbaijanis displaced.
• Both sides committed war crimes (looting and
mutilation).
• Armenia controlled corridor between Armenia
and enclave.
• Clashes in 2016 – 350 killed.
• 1 month war in 2020 – Armenia reclaimed
territory around Armenian enclave & 2nd city.
Azeri military supported by Turkey.
• Ceasefire with Russian peacekeepers.

Question 6

Azerbaijan idea

Answer 6

Questions whether we should prioritise economic growth or human development.
After independence in 1991, after achieving econ growth, has free imprisoned journalists, included locals in Baku regeneration plan, joined ECHR, pass laws protecting LGBT.

Has prioritised economic development, and has abused other countries in the past, so has struggled to grow holistically.

Question 7

West African Ebola

Answer 7

• Viral haemorrhagic fever with fatality rate
of 50% (25%-90% in different
circumstances).
• Spread through exposure to bodily fluids.
• Intermittent regional outbreaks in SubSaharan Africa.
• West African epidemic 2013-16– Guinea,
Liberia, Sierra Leone. 28,000 infections,
12,000 deaths.
• Halted by WHO – hailed as a success story
& effective intervention.
• However – how long-term is this success?
Has Liberia changed for the better

Question 8

Ebola outbreak stats

Answer 8

• 26k infected
• 11k dead

Question 9

Biggest barriers to aid

Answer 9

• Fear of reporting to authorities (social outcast) and mistrust of international aid workers.
• Hazard Fatigue: 24/7 of strong precautions is difficult to sustain.
• Denial by hard core of population, unwilling to change traditional customs and beliefs

Question 10

Intervention

Answer 10

Medicine Sans Frontieres first to
respond– 15 centres, 8,500 patients,
1400 tonnes of equipment, 530,000
protective suits.
• WHO declared emergency in 2014 &
$1billion roadmap to controlling the
outbreak.
• World Food Programme provided food
aid to 150,000 people in affected
areas.
• EU- $1billion towards mobile labs,
healthcare provision, vaccine
research.
• World Bank - $500 million training
healthcare workers and helping
countries with economic impact

Question 11

Moving forward

Answer 11

Remove politicised aid.
• Manage aid.
• Focus on health and
education.
• Provide aid regionally –
e.g. shared goals.
• Both top-down and
bottom-up schemes are
necessary.

Question 12

Liberia a changed country

Answer 12

Chlorinated handwash.
• Adverts on city walls.
• Schools open, people can eat.
• New hygiene regulations in hospitals - washing hands, no sharing beds.
• Rubbish destroyed in incinerators. • Disinfectant used much more rigorously.
• Measles vaccinations deployed.

Question 13

But?

Answer 13

• Will hospitals continue once aid ends? • What about breadwinners dying –poverty for families?
• 5,000 orphaned children? • Child labour is rising – teenage pregnancies have spiked.
• Airlines haven’t returned (e.g. Air
France)

Question 14

West African intervention

Answer 14

Deemed to be successful

Question 15

Liberia

Answer 15

West African country – population of around 5 million.
• 14 year civil war ended in 2003 –country lost 90% of GDP.
• 4th/5th poorest country in the world –
83% of the population living in poverty (2015).
• Ellen Johnson Sirleaf (US educated economist, Nobel Peace Prize winner)
became Africa’s first elected female president.
• George Weah (former ballon d’or
winner) elected in 2018 – anticorruption, economy & anti-illiteracy

Question 16

Liberias aid

Answer 16

Liberia is dependent on international development aid.
• 550 organisations working in Liberia on different projects.
• Some large scale infrastructure projects directed and published by
international aid organisation (e.g. capitol buildings by ChinaAid).
• Aid directed/co-ordinated by different ministries – some much more
effective than others.
• Some aid agencies work around ministries to deliver aid – little oversight or co-ordination.

Question 17

Liberia info

Answer 17

Although receiving mass amounts of aid, economic inequalities have increased and the Liberian population are not happy.

Question 18

Liberia facts

Answer 18

-Foreign aid makes up around a third of liberias GNI
- gov spending on health, 5 m a year budget, reducing mortality rate from 182 to 70/1000
- 44m education budget, but 37m goes to salaries
-USAID 34m on education but no coordination with gov so 34% female illiteracy
- High levels of corruption, 70% businesses have been asked for bribes
Unequal aid impacts USAID concentrates in north east - the only majorly urban area

Question 19

Revolution - September 1979

Answer 19

Hafizullah Amin (communist) becomes leader.
• Adopted state-atheism & Marxist policies:
• Banned beards (men) & chador (women)
• Closed mosques
• Deals with USSR – economic, military assistance

Question 20

1979 – Soviet Invasion

Answer 20

Widespread opposition to Amin – conflict in rural
areas. Afghan Muslims join the Mujahideen (guerrilla)
who try to overthrow Amin.
• Soviet Military Assistance Programme: aimed to
ensure Islamic influence didn’t spread into nearby
Soviet Republics.
• 50,000 USSR troops deployed to defeat Mujahedeen.
• USA funds, trains and supplies the Mujahedeen,
supporting their fight against communism.
• Pakistan’s ISI (military intelligence) acted as a middle
man between USA & Mujahedeen.
• Soviet withdrawal in 1989-1992.

Question 21

Afghan civil war

Answer 21

Mujahedeen groups control different areas of the
country – civil war begins. Most groups supported by
foreign powers (Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Saudi, Iran).
• 1994 – establishment and rapid growth of the Taliban
under Mullah Omar, supported by ISI (Pakistan).
• September 1996 – Taliban takeover of Kabul.
Taliban Rule
• Continued conflict between Taliban and United Front.
• Al Qaeda one organisation supporting the Taliban –
re-located from Sudan in 1996.

Question 22

9/11- Invasion

Answer 22

October 2001 – US, UK & 15 countries attack
Afghanistan & seize land with support of United
Front.
• ISAF – UN peacekeeper mission established:
education, democracy, rule of law, gender equality.
• Hamid Karzai elected president.

Question 23

2003-2014 Insurgency

Answer 23

Taliban led insurgency in rural areas – US responds
with ‘clear & hold strategy’. 140,000 troops by 2011.
• May 2011 – Osama Bin Laden killed in Pakistan.

Question 24

2014 Withdrawal

Answer 24

• ISAF ends combat operations, handing control to
Afghan gov. which it continues to train & equip

Question 25

Feb 2020 US Taliban Deal

Answer 25

US to remove all troops by 2021 in return for Taliban
promise to not attack US & allies. Afghan
government excluded from the deal.

Question 26

Summer 2021 – Taliban Offensive

Answer 26

Taliban quickly captures Afghan territory, president
Ghani flees. 30th August – last US plane leaves Kabul.

Question 27

Cost of military intervention

Answer 27

Death of innocent civilians & soldiers.
• Destruction of housing and infrastructure.
• Disruption of livelihoods and economy.
• Infringement of human rights – putting civilians in danger.
• Loss of sovereignty by countries receiving military intervention.
• Public support at home may wain.

Question 28

Impact of military intervention

Answer 28

Short Term Benefits
• Regime change – removal of dictators.
• Protects human rights being, i.e. safety for minority groups, improved women’s rights.
Long Term Problems
• Require sustainable commitment from interventionists
• lengthens the overall conflict
• might lead to anger and resentment (international terrorism).

Question 29

Responsibility to Protect (R2P)

Answer 29

• 1: State has legal responsibility to maintain stability and enforce human rights – that includes reducing rhetoric, arms shipments etc.
• 2: State has to protect citizens and resolve tense situations, e.g. involve UN commission to investigate situations, establish facts and identify perpetrators of problems.
• 3: the state might need help to meet its legal responsibility – e.g. peacekeeping missions with consent of legal democratic government

Question 30

Ivory Coast intervention

Answer 30

Organising large scale non military intervention if geographical situation supports it - successful.

UN peacekeepers.

Question 31

Successful non military intervention principles

Answer 31

• Non-military interventions can help in the short-term and long-term.
• Development aid must continue even though there has been an improvement in a situation.
• Population growth and climate change can increase the original causes of the difficulty - countries can slip back.
• The best donor schemes are based on expert knowledge; each intervention is unique, requiring nuanced understanding

Question 32

blue helmets

Answer 32

Non military intervention, 3 basic principles of:
- consent of all parties
- impartiality
- non use of force

Bring political and socioeconomic support

Question 33

UN mission in IC

Answer 33

• Civil war between Muslim north and Christian south 2002 - 2007.
• Presidential election in 2011
- Gbagbo (South) beaten by Alassane Ouattra (North).
• Constitutional court disputed the result, then protests, violence against Ouattra supporters. Gbango orders UNOICI troops to leave, then began attacking instillations.
• Civil war. – 3,000 dead in 12 days, 147,000 refugees over 2 months.
• UN backed French air strikes against Gbango’s foreces & seizure of airport.
• Gbango arrested & forces surrendered.
• 10,400 UN blue helmets involved in operations and peacekeeping efforts.
• UN deployed humanitarian + economic assistance – success of agriculture led to 11% annual economic growth

Question 34

Congo in the past

Answer 34

• DRC has huge mineral wealth (diamonds, gold, coltan mines), together with lots of ethnic tensions
• Poor governance – very unpopular Pres. Mobutu Sese Seko (1965-1997).
• The perpetrators of the Rwandan genocide fled into DRC, and then removed its natural wealth.
• Nobody could fight back – Rwandans overthrew the President and replaced him with Laurent Kabila.
• President Kabila switched sides – so Rwanda tried to replace him again, but was supported by Angola and Zimbabwe – leading to regional conflict of 8 countries and dozens of local militia

Question 35

Congo this time

Answer 35

• Joseph Kabila (son of Lauren) has been President since 2001, supported local bigwigs, allowing soldiers to mug people, not developing rule of law.
• His presidential mandate run out 2016, but with only 10% backing he’s clinging to power – scattering protests with tear gas and bullets.
• 10/26 provinces are already in armed conflict, 2m Congolese fled homes, 4.3m are displaced.
• Surrouning countries support warlords and starting to loot richest supplies of minerals

Question 36

Military action can

Answer 36

destabilise whole regions without any apparent gains in rights or welfare (e.g. Libya).

Question 37

Interventions may have contrasting

Answer 37

short-term and long-term consequences (e.g. Iraq) which have led to a reduction in human rights for most people

Question 38

Lack of action

Answer 38

(e.g. Bosnia, 1990s) resulted in mass deaths and retribution and has taken years for recovery with ongoing social and economic development consequences

Question 39

Military intervention, both indirect and direct have a maxed record of success

Answer 39

• Development of human welfare without military security difficult (e.g. Cote d’Ivoire), but Rwanda seen improvement, e.g. political opportunity for women.
• Military intervention improved human welfare through soldiers helping with mine clearance (Kenya) or other development aid projects but elsewhere soldiers have been responsible for rape and violence / outbreak of disease (E.g. Haiti).
• Intervention providing human welfare projects (e.g. in Afghanistan) can be completely undermined by a breakdown in security, resulting in further losses in human rights/development – e.g. Iraq

Question 40

Srebrenica

Answer 40

Lack of action has severe global consequences as seen in srebrenica

Question 41

Bosnian War 1992-1995

Answer 41

• Bosnian war (1992-1995) part of break up of Yugoslavia in early 90s.
• Bosnia multi-ethnic state – Bosniak Muslims (42%), Orthodox Serbs (32%) & Catholic Croats (17%).
• Independence declaration in 1992 – Serbs boycotted the referendum.
• Republika Srpska, led by Radovan Karadzic, and JNA (Yugoslav Army) mobilised inside Bosnia.
• Increased tension and conflict between Croats and Bosnians led to conflict in 1993.
• Ethnic cleansing (displacement of ethnic groups) and genocide among HR abuses.
• Ended with Dayton Accords following NATO bombing campaign against Serbia & JNA

Question 42

Srebrenica facts

Answer 42

• Majority Bosniak area in East Bosnia – surrounded by Serb forces from 1992.
• UN peacekeepers deployed & established a ‘safe zone’ for 20-25,000 civilians & refugees, but unable to disarm Bosniak fighters in the area.
• General Mladić led Serb military into Srbrenica – 600 Dutch peacekeepers did not intervene – no NATO support due to weather & 30 captured Dutch & French hostages threatened.
• 8,372 Bosnian men (12+) massacred by Serb forces (genocide).
• 20,000+ women and children deported as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign

Question 43

The deeper problem

Answer 43

• Failure to prevent human rights abuses through nonintervention.
Delays due to:
• Half-measures – Mladic thought he could do what he wanted.
• Didn’t note early signs of mass slaughter.
• Waited until TV screens showed unacceptable devastation and voters demand action – NATO bombing campaign

Question 44

Ethnic fleas sing bosniak

Answer 44

• 8,000 Bosniak men and boys taken away from refugee camps, executed and buried.
• Women & children deported.
• Many international tribunals and war Crimes court.
• Genocide denied by Serbs

Question 45

Streets saying

Answer 45

Clinton administration knew about the genocide weeks in advance still.

Question 46

Variables for measuring success of intervention

Answer 46

• infant mortality - correlates with healthy, but recording is poor in isolated rural
• life expectancy
• GDP per capita
  HDI and GII

Question 47

Downsides of Congo intervention

Answer 47

• war still raging, 5 million dead, war crimes, only 458$ per capita