Insights of ‘How to Decide’ by Annie Duke

Question 1

What is the Happiness Test used for in decision-making?

Answer 1

To quickly assess if a decision will have a lasting impact on happiness. If not, decide quickly.

Question 2

True or False: If a decision will not affect your happiness in a week, you should take more time to consider it.

Answer 2

False

Question 3

Which test should you use to evaluate if a decision is reversible or easily changeable?

Answer 3

The Two-Way Door Test

Question 4

Describe the Only-Option Test in decision-making.

Answer 4

If at least one option meets your standards, decide quickly instead of searching for the ‘best’ choice among close options.

Question 5

Fill in the blank: The ___ test helps you decide if you can ‘go back through the door’ after making a decision.

Answer 5

Two-Way Door

Question 6

In decision-making, when should you take time to gather more information rather than deciding quickly?

Answer 6

When the decision has a high impact on happiness, lacks a satisfactory option, or has high quitting costs.

Question 7

Why does the Only-Option Test suggest flipping a coin when stuck between two good options?

Answer 7

Because spending more time to pick the ‘best’ option is usually unnecessary if both options meet your standards.

Question 8

True or False: The Two-Way Door Test is used for decisions where the consequences are irreversible.

Answer 8

False

Question 9

When constructing a decision target, what does the ‘bullseye’ represent?

Answer 9

The best (educated) guess of a successful outcome.

Question 10

How do you define the ‘upper’ and ‘lower’ bounds in decision target estimation?

Answer 10

The upper and lower bounds are estimates that define the possible range for outcomes, adjusted by the Shock Test.

Question 11

What purpose does the ‘Knowledge Tracker’ serve in decision-making?

Answer 11

To record information gathered during the decision process, making it easier to reflect on the effort made even if the outcome is negative.

Question 12

Fill in the blank: According to Jeff Bezos, most decisions should be made with around ___% of the information you wish you had.

Answer 12

0.7

Question 13

What question can you ask to conduct the Happiness Test?

Answer 13

Will my happiness, a week from now, depend on this decision?

Question 14

Describe a scenario where the Two-Way Door Test would be useful.

Answer 14

Deciding to try a new hobby or restaurant, where quitting or switching back is low-cost.

Question 15

True or False: The Only-Option Test is only valid if there is more than one good option available.

Answer 15

True

Question 16

Why should decision-makers construct target estimates for significant decisions?

Answer 16

To make more informed decisions by quantifying success and establishing realistic outcome ranges.

Question 17

What does the Shock Test help determine when estimating upper and lower bounds?

Answer 17

Whether the range is realistic by assessing if an outcome would be surprising outside the set bounds.

Question 18

When is it recommended to stop researching and make a decision according to Jeff Bezos?

Answer 18

When you have about 70% of the information you wish you had.