Insights from ‘Thinking in Bets’ by Annie Duke Flashcards
What are the two main factors that determine how our lives turn out, according to Annie Duke?
The quality of our decisions and luck.
True or False: Thinking of every decision as a bet encourages us to consider various possible futures.
True
Fill in the blank: When we treat every decision as a _______, we become more objective and open-minded.
bet
Why is it useful to consider every decision as a bet, especially when someone challenges our certainty?
It prompts us to question our beliefs, consider missing information, and adjust our degree of certainty.
What does ‘positive expected value’ mean in decision-making?
It means the potential reward of a decision, multiplied by its probability of success, is greater than the personal cost involved.
How does the concept of positive expected value apply to life decisions beyond poker?
If the potential reward of a decision outweighs its costs after considering the likelihood of success, we should confidently proceed.
True or False: A good outcome always indicates a high-quality decision.
False
Explain the difference between quality of outcome and quality of decision.
A good outcome can occur by luck even with a poor decision, while a good decision focuses on the process and can yield positive results over time.
According to Annie Duke, what habit should we develop after achieving a good result?
We should identify and admit at least two mistakes made along the way, which helps us stay process-focused rather than outcome-focused.
Fill in the blank: A great decision is the result of a good ______.
process
Why is it beneficial to admit mistakes after a successful outcome?
It keeps us humble, improves future decisions, and shifts focus from just results to the decision-making process.
What does Annie Duke recommend doing to improve future decision-making after a good result?
Find and admit mistakes made in the process to a friend or colleague.
What mindset shift does ‘thinking in bets’ promote?
It encourages us to be more objective, accurate, and open-minded, improving decision quality over time.
