BIOL 437 Week Five Part 1 Flashcards
reproductive number (R.)
- average number of secondary infections generated by the first infectious individual in a population of completely susceptible individuals
- continues until something slows the process down
R. affects
-rate of spread
R. increases with
- length of infection (L)
- longer a person is infected=longer they can transmit to other people
S
- number of susceptible hosts that can be infected
- higher=greater potential for first individual to transmit infection
L+S
-determines the potential number of contacts over the course of an infection
R. also depends on
-how transmissible a pathogen is
transmissibility depends on
-pathogen
-population of interest
>nutrionally stressed are more susceptible
*beta
outbreaks
- only likely to spread if R. is >1
* threshold for that pathogen
interventions to reduce R. threshold
- Decrease number of susceptible individuals
>vaccination - Decrease the length of time an individual is infectious
>ask sick people to stay home - Decrease transmissibiilty
>limit contacts or introduce sanitary measures
epidemics
-mostly associated wiht acute, highly transmissilbe, directly transmitted pathogens
SIR compartmental framework
- susceptible, infected, removed
- used to understand epidemic curves caused by these pathogens
- removal is either due to death or recovery with immunity
ex. smallpox, measles
epidemic curve: SIR
-assumes random interactions
-speed of transmission depends on the R. and the infectious period
>higher R., shorter infectious period = more explosive spread
effective reproductive number (Re)
- average number of new infections later in an epidmeic
- R. x individuals still susceptible
- if less than 1, epidemic is self-limiting
self limitation
-outweighs contagion when proportion of susceptible falls below 1/R
>when population reaches ‘herd immunity’
early in a new infectious disease
-Re will be close to R.