The Art Of Thinking Clearly. Flashcards
Sleeper affect? Why propaganda works.
Why propaganda works.During World War II every nation produced propaganda movies.This was to fill the nation especially soldiers with enthusiasm for their country.Propaganda works in an opposite way to most ideas. When you first hear an idea if it does strike a chord with you then you believe it the most just after reading it over time you lose that motivation for that viewpoint.Propaganda seems to do the opposite if it does strike a chord with someone it tends to only increase over time. Because the soldiers knew that the propaganda movies were coming from the government they didn’t believe them initially. But as we sleep we tend to forget where the source of the knowledge comes from and only remember the knowledge itself. So because the soldiers believed in the message of the propaganda but not the source they tend to forget the source over time and that knowledge actually remains.
What is the paradox of choice?
It basically means less is more. When you have too many choices you get inner paralysis. It’s hard to come to a decision if there’s too many options for example online dating. There’s so many options it’s hard to come to correct decision so therefore we only rely purely on physical attractiveness.Instead of what really matters and finding the correct companion. The more choice you have the less sure you can be that you made the correct Choice therefore the less satisfied you are.
Expectations? Handle with care.
Handle with care. If you take a group of students And tell the teacher that they are gifted. Then after a year they will end up with high IQs then the students of the control group. Because the teacher had a higher Expectation of the students They probably gave them more time and taught them more, which in turn made them perform better.It’s like the placebo affect, perceived expectations alter the chemical structure of the brain. Thus the whole body. Is it possible to live a life without expectations, unfortunately not.Lower expectations for things you cannot control for example the stock market.
Stumped by a piece of paper. Exponential growth?
If you fold a piece of paper 50 times what would the height me? Dancer is 60,000,000miles approximate distance between the earth and the moon. Back in the Stone Age everything was always linear growth. Nothing that grows exponentially will grow forever.
Why the balancing force of the universe is baloney. The gamblers fallacy ?
It’s the idea that a ball can’t remember how many times it’s landed on black. A funny example of this idea is that a mathematician is scared of flying because the threat that a bomb could be on board. So what does he do ? He carries his own bomb on every flight, because while the chance of a bomb being on the flight is very low. The chance of two bombs being on the plane is almost impossible. Ask this question, you have a coin and it’s landed on head three times in a row. What do you choose ? Probably tails right. What if I said the coin has landed on heads 50 times in a row. You would probably now choose heads right.
Decision fatigue ?
Making decisions is exhausting. Will power is like a battery, after awhile it runs out and has to be recharged. How ? Take a break, eat some food will power falls to 0 if your blood sugar falls to low. That’s why IKEA has restaurants in the middle of there stores. To give you the boost you need. Always present something in the morning, before decision fatigue has set in. Always go before a judge in the morning or after lunch, never when there blood sugar will be low.
Salience effect ? How eye catching details hinder us blind.
How eye-catching details render us blind. Something that catches your eye, a stand out attribute. Means that outstanding features get a lot more attention than they deserve. 2 men rob a bank and are arrested shortly after. It happens to be that they are Nigerian, although no particular ethnic group are responsible for a disproportionate amount of bank robberies. This salient fact distorts our thinking. Lawless immigrants at it again we think. Thus prejudices form, the fact that the vast majority of ethnic groups live perfectly normal lives gets forgotten. Do not be blinded by irregularities. Don’t just give into seemingly obvious explanations, dig deeper and find the real truth.
Why are you should keep a diary. Hindsight bias?
It’s also known as that I told you so phenomenon. Business analysts today will say that googles dominance was inevitable, however they would have snorted if someone said that back in 1998. It causes us to think that we are better predictors than we actually are. Keep a Journal and write down your predictions for whatever is going on in your life around you. Then from time to time compare your notes with actual developments. You will tend to find how poor of a predictor you actually are.
Why you see shapes in the clouds ? Clustering illusion.
The human brain seeks patterns and rules. If it finds no patterns then it often simply invents some. Often this can lead to disaster especially if money is involved. Sometimes things or events just occur by chance and you can be fooled to think there is some rule or pattern. Take dice for example, it’s quite possible to roll the same number four times in a row, which mystifies some people. Be skeptical about things that seem like patterns.
Effort justification ? Hurts so good.
Hurts so good. When you put a lot of effort into something you value the outcome higher. For example you build a bike from the ground up, takes you a lot of effort therefore you think the end product is worth more. Initiation tasks, the Harder they are the more you value being a part of a group or team.Can be also known as the IKEA affect. The fact we had to put the furniture together makes the furniture more valuable at the end.This goes the same for knitted clothes and knitted socks.Instant cakes don’t taste as nice because they’re too easy to make.
Neo mania? Dis regard the brand new.
Disregard the brand-new.How will the world look and 50 years What will you surround yourself with? 50 years ago people thought we were going to vacation on the moon has highways in the sky have flying cars. But in reality not much has really changed we still use wood for furniture. Leather shoes were invented during the ice age chairs were invented in ancient Egypt.If an invention has been around for a long period of time it’s proven itself it must be worthwhile keeping.Most of the flashy gadgets and new contraptions will be short lived.Whatever gadget has lasted X amount of years will last X amount of years again.
Even true stories are fairytales. Storytelling bias ?
We seem to not be able to do without stories. For example a car is driving over a bridge and suddenly the bridge collapses. What do we hear in the paper the next day? We hear of the story of the driver where he was going his life story. But we do not hear about the failures of the bridge, the underlying cause of why it collapsed. Are there other bridges of the same construction elsewhere ? Although these are valid questions we do not hear of them because they are simply not good yarns. We tend to remember stories better if they are emotionally linked. Eg two stories, The King and the Queen died. Or the king died and then the queen died of grief. The real issue with stories is that they give us a false sense of understanding which inevitably leads us to take bigger risks.
If 50 million people say something foolish, then it’s still foolish. Social proof ?
You walk into time square and everyone all of a sudden looks up. What do you do ? You look up, because of social proof. Same thing when your at a concert and someone starts clapping to the beat. You start doing the same thing. Individuals feel like they are behaving correctly when the behave the same as other people. The more people display a certain behaviour then the more we deem this to be ok or correct.Why do we do this ? Well in the past following others was a good survival strategy. Let’s say it’s a million years ago and your out with your hunter gatherer friends. They all bolt it, what are you going to do ? You would do the same thing even if you haven’t seen the threat. Better to be safe than sorry right.Those that acted differently to the group exited the gene pool.
Neglect of probability?
There are two games the first game you can win $1 million the second game we can win $10,000 the first game has a one and 1 million chance of winning in the second game a one in 10,000 chance of winning which do you choose?Everyone is attracted to the large win we respond to the magnitude of the event i.e. size of the jackpot but not to its likelihood of occurring. for example everyone cancels flights after an aeroplane crashes. Have the chances to crash changed ?
Hidonic treadmill be careful what you wish for?
It’s our inability to correctly predict our emotions given a specific situation. For example how would you feel if one day do you want the lottery and how long would you feel that way for.Versus how You would feel if your best friend passed away and how long would you feel that way for.The happiness affect wears off after two months or thereabouts.I only ever expect short-term happiness from materialistic things.Follow your passions and then invest in friendships.
Overthinking ? Where’s the off switch.
Where’s the off switch? If you think to much, you cut off your mind to the wisdom of your feelings. When do you listen to your head vs listen to your gut feeling ? If it’s to do with something practiced ie a motor skill like playing golf. It’s best to go with your gut and not overthink the situation. Complex situations however, logic trumps intuition. We need to think about complex situations rationally.
The liking bias ?
The more we like someone the more we are willing to buy from them or help them. The liking bias can be attributed to either being attractive, similar to us, or they like us. It’s used in advertising all the time because you’re worth it. The more human and animal the more we tend to like it.
Speed demons make great drivers ?
Let’s say your driving somewhere that’s 100km away. Drivers that get there in less than an hour must have broken the speed limit to get there. Well drivers that took longer than an hour must have driven below the speed limit. Which group of drivers would be involved in more accidents ? It’s always the drivers that take less than an hour because obviously everyone that did it in less than an hour didn’t have a crash. Always make sure than when looking at a study that everyone that started it, continued to the end. People that drop out for whatever reason can hugely sway the results. These studies should be discarded.
Personification ? Why you prefer novels instead of statistics.
Why you prefer novels instead of statistics. Statistics don’t stir us people do. When your shown a photo of a starving child you donate more than you would if just shown the statistics of the issue. It’s the idea of giving every story a face. To strike emotion in the person your trying to convince. Be careful when encountering human stories, ask for the facts and the statistics behind their claims.
Domain dependence ? Knowledge is non transferable.
Knowledge is non transferable. Insights don’t pass well from one field to another. The failure to transfer knowledge from the academic world to the private sphere. It’s like how many doctors smoke cigarettes ? It’s hard to actually act how you know you should. Police officers on average are twice as violent at home as civilians. Marriages of couple therapist are usually more fragile than their clients. Book smarts doesn’t transfer to steer smarts easily.
Information Bias ? If you have an enemy give them information.
If you have an enemy then give them information. It’s the idea that more information is always better. For example a map so detailed that it needs to be a 1-1 scale. Which would be completely useless to anyone.additional information can waste time and money and also put you at a disadvantage. Stop trying to amass all the data try and get by with just the bare facts. The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance it’s the illusion of knowledge. Your pre conceived idea or two much information that’s worthless.
Inability to close doors?
General Gyan Yu Sent his army to take on the chin dynasty.While his troops slept he ordered for all their boats to be set on fire. The next day he told them you now have a choice prepared to fight or die.By removing the option to retreat he switched their focus to the only thing that mattered winning the fight.As humans we always try and keep our options open. We never want to miss out on a good deal.
The endowment effect? Don’t cling to things.
Don’t cling to things.We consider things to be more valuable the moment we own them. We always try and sell things for more than we are willing to spend on them. We are better at collecting then selling this is shown in hoarders.
Feature positive effect ? Why checklists deceive you.
Why checklists deceive you. Absence is harder to detect than presence . We place greater emphasis on what is absent than what is present. You rarely recognise absence of pain. But once it’s there is easily recognised. It happens is studies where the confirmation of hypothesises is rewarded with publication or even noble prizes. On the other hand falsification of hypothesis is a lot harder to get published. Therefore scientist often use the feature positive effect. There has never been a noble prize giving for falsification of hypothesis. Only confirmation, but they are both as helpful as each other for growth. We are more open to positive suggestion ie do X Rather than negative suggestion ie forget about Y. If your healthy remember what it feels like to be sick. Be grateful when you get of an aeroplane and you don’t crash, be thankful we are not at war. Think more about absence and you will be happier.
Everyone is beautiful at the top. Halo affect?
We believe the CEOs who are successful in one industry will thrive in any other sector. We also tend to believe that they are heroes in their private life too. Good looking people are portrayed as more honest and intelligent. It’s what makes Roger Federer a good salesman. It works on a subconscious level. Try to go beyond face value.
The default effect ? Most people tend to stick with the standard option.
Most people tend to stick with the standard option. House wine, standard iPhone settings. If you make organ donation an opt in standard then 80% will take it up. Whereas when they have a choice of either they will only take it up 40%. if no default option people crave what we know or have had before. We tend to want to keep things how they are or the status quo, even if it puts us at a disadvantage.
The Black swan, How to profit from the implausible ?
Black swans have become symbols of the improbable. A black swan is an unthinkable event that has a huge impact on your life, work, family or country. The stock market crash. There are things we know, knows. There are things we know we don’t know. Known unknowns. Then there are things we don’t know we don’t know, unknown unknowns. How big is the universe ? Along time ago we hardly ever came across anything extraordinary or unknown. Sometimes the deer we chased was a bit bigger or smaller. Or faster or slower. Now these black swans are becoming more and more common. Try and avoid surroundings where negative black swans can arise.
Twaddle tendency ? If you have nothing nice to say.
If you have nothing nice to say, say nothing. Able to except words without questioning them because they sound intellectual. Jabber disguises ignorance. It’s like post match interviews, all they really want to say is we lost and it’s that simple. Clear thoughts become clear statements. Where as ambiguous ideas transform into vacant ramblings.
The world is very complicated and if you don’t understand part of it stay quiet.
Zeigarnic effect ? We don’t forget the uncompleted task.
We seldom forget uncompleted tasks, they persist in our subconsciousness until we give them our attention. but once we complete the task and it’s ticked off our mental to do list, it’s usually forgotten. We can also get tasks out of our mind if we come up with a good plan of action to complete the task. To silence your inner voices and task anxiety. Grab a note pad and write down what it is that you need to do and then exactly how you are going to do it.
Social comparison bias? Why we take aim at young guns.
Why we take aim at young guns. It’s the idea of holding off helping someone because you’re afraid they might out do you.Always hire people that are better than you. Don’t just hire people that aren’t as good as you because it makes you feel good about yourself. This is a surefire way to make your business fail. When did you last hear of a CEO clearing out his desk for someone below him that can do a better job. Get in the up in comers good books and learn from them. It will only help you in the end.
Will Rogers phenomenon ?
How to increase the IQ of two states ? Also known as stage migration. An American comedian from Oklahoma said that Oklahomans that pack up and move to California raises the average IQ of both states. 6 car salesman in total over two companies. Each sells 1-6 cars a week. You can make both averages go up and it looks impressive.
Illusion of attention ? You have no idea what your overlooking.
You have no idea what you are overlooking.it’s shown in the video of the team passing the basketball. Your told to count the amount of total passes. I’m the middle there’s a gorilla that nobody usually notices unless they have seen the video before. We are confident that we see everything that’s going on in front of us. But in reality we only see and understand what we are focused on. In reality we have no idea what we are overlooking. What unexpected things could happen, check the periphery not just the centre. Be ready for the unexpected and try to not get fixated on one thing.
Self serving bias ?
We consider successes to ourselves and failures to external factors. If your portfolio makes money you blame yourself and your smarts. If it does badly then you blame the stock market in some way. Simple explanation it feels good and doesn’t cause any major harm.
Volunteers foly ?
Volunteer work is only the best way to help when you can make use of your expertise. For example I’m a professional photographer who makes $500 an hour. The local bird club needs help building birdhouses. Should you volunteer your time to help out in the building ?
No, you should work for an hour As a professional photographer. Then either donate the money you earn to the bird club, or pay a carpenter the $500 to make birdhouses for the local bird club.This is true unless you’re a celebrity, because as a Celebrity you can get the good cause out in the community. So unless you’re a famous enough that people take a double look at you in the streets the best way to contribute or volunteer is with money.
Conjunction fallacy? SYD airport closed ?
Conjunction fallacy is the idea that if an additional criteria must be met and it will always be less likely. For example take these two statements in the paper. Sydney Airport is closed or Sydney Airport closed due to bad weather today aircraft diverted. Which one is more likely? Most people would say B because it’s a good story and sounds reasonable. But it’s obviously more likely that A is true because it covers a lot more bases as to why the airport is closed.
Because justification? Any old excuse will do.
Any old excuse will do. When you justify your behaviour you get more tolerance from people. In line at the photocopier, hey can I jump ahead I need to make some copies and I’m in a huge rush. Your more likely to let them go ahead.doesn’t seem to matter if your excuse is that good or not. This is why PAs explaining the issue makes it easier for them to take it. Always use because !!
Beware of the special case. Conformation bias ?
We tend to filter out any new information that contradicts our existing views. Facts don’t cease to exist just because they are ignored. If you here the word exception your ears should prick up. Often it hides disconfirming evidence. Here’s an example 2-4-6- i have written a rule on the back of the paper, what do most people say ? 8 is the most common. It does fit the rule but not in the way people think. 7 also fits the rule and 9 and 10. The rule is the number needs to be higher than the next. You need to try and disprove your thinking and not just continuously confirm your ideas. Find reasons to doubt your theory’s. Do you go through life thinking people are inherently good or bad ? Which ever you feel you will find evidence to support your claim and ignore the rest.Works the same with the internet. The videos we watch tend to confirm to our current beliefs. Then they recommend more of the same. If all you watch are puppy videos all you will get are puppy videos.
