Prospects For Global Population Flashcards
When was the peak of worlds population growth rate ?
1960s
It’s continued to fall from 2% to 1%
Fertility rates in 1960s
5 per women this has now halved
Down ward trend predicted to continue according to UN
By 2100 global fertility rates will be less than 3
Now has globalisation increased life expectancy?
Transfer of capital / products from NGOs
What did the Un do in 2012?
Made 3 possible forecasts for global pop for 2050 and 2100.
There is a 2.51 billion range between different predictions for 2050
Reasons for high fertility scenario?
Lack of education Contraception Disease Poor health Economy dominated by agriculture Culture religion
Reasons for low fertility scenario?
Emancipation of women Better healthcare More people living in urban areas Government policy - one child Less marriage
What are the Applied System Analysis saying ?
Pop will peak at 9.4 billion 2075 and fall below 9 billion by 2100.
- Don’t think china’s fertility rates will rise again
- Nigeria’s pop will triple because of better education
- Education of girls
World pop will continue to…
Slow down
The most rapid pop increase will be in …
Sub Saharan Africa
Name places which many experience pop decline in future ?
China
Parts of Europe and Asia
Average age…
Increased
What will happen to migration in future ?
Remain high
Has less of an impact on pop change than birth and death rate
Great effect in uk and creates high working pop and increases br
How to manage youthful population and high population growth?
Education - free / accessible.
Investment
Library
Healthcare / birth control policies
Contraception / vaccines
How would you manage an aging pop?
Care homes
Leisure for elderly
Increase migrants to help care for elderly
Increase retirement age
Increase taxed
Pro natal polo tied
Means tested pension
How to manage internal migration and sustainable growth of cities
More housing
Education
Investment
How to manage international migration?
It can resolve or intensify issues.
Encourage skilled workers which will contribute to economy
Help migrants return to own country
Africa
More than half of global pop growth from 2015 - 2050 is expected to occur in Africa.
Even if fertility rates do fall
Unsure of will benefit from dividend
Least developed countries
Pop remains high
Europe
Shrink in pop especially in east Europe
Asia
Second largest contributor to pop growth
A growing population / more affluent poses challenges for what ?
Ecological footprint
Carbon budgets
As we need to supply resources for survival food water energy
But use sustainable way
Why is water so important?
Sanitation / Hygiene
About 10% of water globally used in agriculture / irrigation and is linked with ability to produce food and important crops
How much is energy demand going to increase by v
40% by 2030
Need more renewable energy
Name possible future problems ?
Climate change
Destruction of habitats
Loss of biodiversity / wild foods
Unsafe water supplies
Soil erosion
Toxic chemical
Climate change
Sea ice melt
Permafrost thaws
People need fresh melt water for domestic use / irrigation / HEP
Sea level rise
Destructive of habits
Forests cleared
Unsafe water supplies
Over 1 billion people in LICs have no access to drinking water.
Aquifers being depleted quicker than being replenished
Soils Erosion
40% of soil used for agriculture around world are degraded
Erosion by wind and water
Leaching / salinisation / acidification
Loss of wild foods
About 2 billion people in LICs depend on oceans for protein.
Overfishing
Fossil fuels
Oil natural gas and coal most important energy resources.
Burning these is polluting and contributes to global warming.
Finite
Toxic chemicals
From industry are manufactures and released as effluent.
Reduced sperm counts / birth defects / mental health
Soils : oceans : lakes : plastics we breath / swallow then
What set of goals is helping people and env ?
Sustainable development goals
193 members involved
