Topic 8: Causal Claims Flashcards
What is a causal claim?
A statement that certain events or factors (causes) lead to specific outcomes (effects).
Can one outcome have multiple causes?
Yes.
Example: A student failing an exam could be due to lack of study, illness, an unfair exam, or poor alignment between the test and studied material.
Why is it important to examine causal claims critically?
To evaluate whether the claimed cause-effect relationship is genuine or if rival explanations exist.
What happens if we can identify other plausible causes?
The original causal claim becomes less convincing.
What is the first type of rival cause?
Differences Between Groups – When an outcome is explained by differences between groups, consider if other group characteristics might be the real cause.
Example of group difference rival cause?
McGill law grads perform better than other schools — but maybe it’s not just the school’s quality, but stricter admissions selecting already stronger students.
What is the second type of rival cause?
Correlation Between Characteristics – Just because two things are related doesn’t mean one causes the other.
What is reverse causation?
When the assumed effect is actually the cause.
Example: Higher stock prices may motivate board members to buy shares, not the other way around.
What is a third-variable explanation?
A third factor influences both variables.
Example: Low family income → poor neighborhoods → crime. It’s the neighborhood, not just income, that drives behavior.
What are the 3 possible explanations for correlation?
Direct causation
Reverse causation
Third variable
What is the “post hoc ergo propter hoc” fallacy?
Assuming that because event X happened before event Y, X caused Y. It’s a common error in reasoning.
Example of post hoc fallacy?
“I dyed my hair → got grey hair → the dye caused the greying.”
This conclusion is not logically valid without evidence.
What is a causal explanation example for gym memberships?
Lower membership fees → increased gym attendance.
What is the reverse causation explanation?
More members → lower cost per person → allowed gym to lower fees.
What is a rival cause explanation?
Other gyms raised prices → people switched to cheaper gyms
People wanted change → Econo Fitness offered something new
