Topic 6: Problem Solving Flashcards
What is the difference between problem solving and achieving outcomes?
Problem solving is the process; achieving outcomes is the result. They are not always the same — good process doesn’t guarantee success.
Why is there no such thing as a perfect decision?
Because humans are limited by bounded rationality — they can’t process all information, time is limited, and political factors may interfere.
What is bounded rationality?
A decision-making approach where simplified solutions are used due to limited information, time, and cognitive capacity.
What is satisficing?
Satisficing is selecting the first solution that meets a minimum standard of acceptability rather than the optimal one.
What are the characteristics of perfect rationality?
Decisions are completely informed
Perfectly logical
Maximize economic gain
What are the characteristics of bounded rationality?
Limited information is available
Limited time is available
Political considerations may exist
What is PADIL?
A 5-step problem-solving framework:
Problem, Alternatives, Decide, Implement, Learn
What is problem framing and why does it matter?
Framing is how a problem is presented (e.g., in terms of gains or losses). It affects how people perceive and respond to the problem.
In the example with saving lives, how were Problem A and Problem B framed differently?
Problem A: Framed in terms of lives saved (200 people will be saved)
Problem B: Framed in terms of risk/loss (1/3 chance to save all 600, 2/3 chance to save none)
What is the takeaway from the framing example (Problem A vs. B)?
People tend to prefer options framed as gains (Problem A) even when the outcomes are statistically the same — this shows how framing influences decision-making.
What is systems thinking?
Systems thinking is solving problems by understanding how different components interact and affect one another over time.
What is a system?
A perceived whole whose elements continually affect each other and work toward a common purpose (e.g., human body, organizations, clocks).
What is systemic structure?
A pattern of interrelationships among components in a system that sustains behavior.
What question is key to systems thinking?
“How will this change affect other things?”
What are mental models?
Broad worldviews or assumptions that influence how people perceive and act. They can sometimes cause us to ignore valid data.
What are three tools to understand the scope of a problem?
Affinity diagram – Sorts ideas into themes to guide data gathering.
Is/Is Not analysis – Defines what is part of the problem and what isn’t.
Graphic displays – Uses charts or visuals to illustrate data and scope.
Why is it important to generate many alternatives when solving problems?
Research shows that unique and effective solutions often emerge from generating a wide variety of alternatives.
What is brainstorming?
A common technique for generating many ideas quickly and openly within a group setting.
What is brainwriting (or nominal group technique)?
A method where individuals write down their ideas privately before sharing, promoting equal participation and often higher satisfaction.
How does brainwriting differ from traditional brainstorming?
Brainwriting is more structured and individual at first, while traditional brainstorming involves immediate verbal idea sharing. Brainwriting reduces social pressure and can generate more diverse input.
Before making a decision, what is recommended?
Establish clear decision-making criteria.
What are common decision-making criteria in business?
Cost, benefits, time, feasibility, resources, risk, and ethics.
What is an Alternatives Table?
A decision tool that lists options and criteria side-by-side, allowing for easy comparison.
What is Weighted Ranking?
A tool that evaluates alternatives by assigning importance weights to criteria and multiplying them by performance scores to rank options.
What is the benefit of using weighted ranking in decision-making?
It simplifies complex decisions by recognizing that some criteria are more important than others
What is equifinality?
A condition where different initial conditions lead to the same outcome.
What is a devil’s advocate in decision-making?
Someone who presents opposing viewpoints to thoroughly evaluate and test an idea.
What are the 4 elements to include when presenting a decision?
State the problem
State the assumed cause
State the proposed solution
Describe its impact and what it will accomplish
Why are trade-offs important in decision-making?
All decisions carry risk, and different stakeholders may judge the decision differently based on the risks they value most.
Why can experienced professionals still make poor decisions?
Due to judgment traps, cognitive biases, and relying too much on intuition.
What is intuition in decision-making?
A gut feeling or instinctive understanding not based on deliberate analysis.
What is the fundamental attribution error?
The tendency to blame others’ actions on personality instead of situational factors.
What is the self-serving bias?
Attributing successes to oneself and blaming failures on external factors.
What is availability bias?
Relying on readily available or recent information when making judgments.
What is representative bias?
Judging something based on how much it resembles a known case or stereotype.
What is the hasty generalization fallacy?
Drawing a broad conclusion from a single or small number of cases.
What is anchoring and adjustment bias?
Using an initial value as a reference point and adjusting future judgments based on it — often insufficiently.
What is confirmation bias?
Seeking out or favoring evidence that confirms your existing beliefs or intuition.
What is overconfidence bias?
Being too optimistic or confident in the accuracy of your own decisions.
What is escalation of commitment?
Continuing to invest in a failing decision despite new evidence, often due to prior investment of time, money, or effort (“throwing good money after bad”).
What are confidence estimates and why are they helpful?
They involve attaching a range or level of confidence to our beliefs to reflect uncertainty and avoid over-reliance on single data points.
What is a practical example of using confidence estimates?
Ask multiple employees how many on-time deliveries can be made, compare answers, and use a range instead of one estimate.
Why are single-point estimates risky?
They can create overconfidence and ignore variability — ranges provide a more realistic picture.
What is calibration in decision-making?
Learning from today’s successes and failures to improve future decisions.
What is healthy skepticism?
The practice of challenging your own assumptions and those of experts to avoid decision traps.
What are 6 specific defenses against decision bias (healthy skepticism tips)?
Don’t jump to conclusions.
Don’t assume correlation means causation — test it.
Don’t base conclusions only on personal experience.
Don’t only look for supportive evidence — seek disconfirming evidence too.
Don’t fall prey to overconfidence — use confidence estimates.
Use ranges and goals instead of single-point predictions.
