Forecasting Flashcards
1
Q
What is the delphi technique?
A
A sales predictor - analyses the market qualitatively, relies on information from experts
2
Q
Who are the experts used in the delphi technique?
A
Can be internal or external and will answer question independently
3
Q
How does the delphi technique work?
A
Independent experts asked to predict sales. They give their opinion and facilitator summarises them and hands them back out. Sees if opinions change - looks for consensus
4
Q
How long does the delphi technique take?
A
No particular amount of time - can have several rounds
5
Q
What is time series analysis?
A
Method of predicting sales through working out a moving average
6
Q
What are the benefits of TSA?
A
- Good for taking account of predictable variations
- Accurate in the short term
7
Q
What are the drawbacks of TSA?
A
- Overly complex
- Not useful long term - variations due to SLEPTEE
- Based on past data - only as useful as data is
- What if objectives changed?based on past data
