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CG AICP > 1: Census / population projections > Flashcards

1: Census / population projections Flashcards

1
Q

Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

A

A MSA includes at least one city with 50,000 or more inhabitants, or an urbanized area (of at least 50,000 inhabitants), and a total metropolitan population of at least 100,000.

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2
Q

Consolidated MSA

A

A Consolidated MSA is made up of several PMSA’s. An example is the Dallas-Fort Worth Consolidated Metropolitan Area. Dallas and Fort Worth are each primary metropolitan statistical areas.

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3
Q

Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)

A

A Core Based Statistical Area is defined by the US Office and Budget to provide data description for areas where there is a core area with at least 10,000 people that when combined with other adjacent communities is socially and economically integrated.

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4
Q

Census Tract

A

Typically has a population between 2,000 and 8,000 people.

Its the smallest area where all information is released.

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5
Q

Census Block

A

The smallest level at which the Census data is collected. There are typically
400 housing units per block.

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6
Q

Census Block Group

A

A group of Census Blocks.

They generally contain 600-3,000 people, and are used to present data and control block numbering.

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7
Q

Cohort Survival Method

A

Uses the current population plus natural increase (more births, fewer deaths) and net migration (more in-migration, less out-migration) to calculate a future population.

Deaths, births, migration, and fertility rates are components of this population projection method.
THE MOST accurate population projection, requires tons of data. Detailed, very accurate method to make short term population projections that can handle many variables.

Shortest time interval for which estimate can be made is the length of time it takes for all members of an age cohort to age (ex 10-14). If data is available for each age (year) the method can be used to project the population year by year.

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8
Q

Shift-Share

(population projection)
(analysis)

A

The population projection technique that allocates a projected population expansion to subregional areas is called.

DIFFERENT THAN

A shift-share analysis, determines what portions of regional economic growth or decline can be attributed to national, economic industry, and regional factors. The analysis helps identify industries where a regional economy has competitive advantages over the larger economy. To conduct a shift-share analysis one must know the industry employment for the region and the nation.

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9
Q

2010 Census fastest growing region

A

The South by 14.3%

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10
Q

Power Towns

A

Include anchor department stores with a lifestyle center

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11
Q

Natural Increase

A

Difference between number of children born and number of people who die during one time interval (basically part of the cohort-survival method)

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12
Q

Ratio (step-down) method

A

ratio between population of a city & a county at a known point in time such as the census to project future populations

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13
Q

Tribal Designated Statistical Area (TDSA)

A

TDSAs are statistical geographic entities identified and delineated for the Census Bureau by federally recognized American Indian tribes that do not currently have an American Indian reservation and/or off-reservation trust land.

A TDSA is intended to encompass a compact and contiguous area that contains a concentration of individuals who identify with the delineating federally recognized American Indian tribe. TDSAs are also intended to be comparable to American Indian reservations within the same state or region and provide a means for reporting statistical data for the area.

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14
Q

Threshold population

A

A term that is under a number of government programs to determine program eligibility.

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15
Q

Urbanized area

A

The Census Bureau defines an urbanized area wherever it finds an urban nucleus of 50,000 or more people.

Must have core with population density of 1000 people per square mile - may contain adjoining territory with at least 500 people per square mile.

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16
Q

Urban cluster

A

Urban clusters have at least 2,500 but less than 50,000 persons and a population density of 1,000 persons per square mile. This delineation of built-up territory around small towns and cities is new for the 2000 Census.

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17
Q

Micropolitan Statistical Area

A

A population of more than 10,000 people and less than 50,000 people. This includes a central county and adjacent counties that have a high degree of social and economic integration as measured by commuting.

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18
Q

Census Designated Places
(CDP)

A

The equivalent of an incorporated place for data purposes. This is for settled concentrations of population that are not incorporated.

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19
Q

American Community Survey
(ACS)

A

This survey, which replaces the long form in the decennial Census, takes a sample of the population and projects the findings to the population as a whole.

Reaches 2.5% of the nation’s population yearly.

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20
Q

Population growth calculation (doubling)

A

Rule of 70:

70 / Rate of growth (as decimal)

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21
Q

Based on the 2010 Census, the U.S. Population is projected to pass 400 million by:

A

2060

22
Q

Linear Projection Method

A

Linear method uses the change in population (increase or decline) over a period of time and extrapolates that change into the future, in a LINEAR fashion.

Example = population has grown an average of 1000 ppl per year over the last 20 years, it would be presumed to grow by 100 ppl per year in the future.

23
Q

Exponential and Modified Exponential Method

A

Exponential method uses the RATE of growth or decline. Ex- the percentage change in population over a period of time to estimate the current or future population. Percentage of change is extrapolated into the future.

24
Q

Symptomatic Method

A

This method uses any available data indirectly related to population size, such as housing starts or new rivers licenses. It then estimates the population using a ratio.

Example, the average household size at 2.5 data on 100 new single-family building permits that are issued this year, would yield an estimate of 250 new people will be added to the community.

25
Q

Distributed Housing Unit Method

A

This method multiples Census Bureau data for the number of housing units by the occupancy rate and persons per household.

Reliable for slow growth communities but less reliable in quickly changing communities.

26
Q

Economic base analysis

A

Looks at basic and non-basic economic activities. Basic activities are those that can be exported while non-basic activities are those that are locally oriented. Exporting industries make up the economic base of a region.

TO identify economic base industries a location quotient is calculated for each industry. Ratio of the industry’s share of local employment divided by its share of the enation (or other levels of government).

Location quotient of less than 1 = importing economy.

Quotient greater than 1 = area is exporting economy.

27
Q

North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)

A

Standard used by federal stat agencies in classifying business establishments for the purpose of collecting, analyzing, and publishing statistical data.

Replaced the Standard Industrial Classification system (SIC).

28
Q

Value of larger census area?

A

larger sample size and larger number of variables

29
Q

2010 Census- what is the national rate of homeownership?

A

65%

30
Q

In the late 1990s how many people in the private workforce worked for small businesses

A

52%

31
Q

By 2040 the population of the United States is projected to most likely exceed (according to the 2010 census)

A

400 million

32
Q

Gompertz curve

A

Population projection method -

Time series mathematical model in which growth is slowest at the start and end of a given time period.

33
Q

Public Use Microdata Sample

A

Data available through the American Community Survey (ACS)

34
Q

2010 Census fastest growing states

A

Nevada - 35%
Arizona - 25%
Utah - 24%

35
Q

2010 Census fastest growing metro areas

A

1- Palm Coast, FL
2- St. George, UT
3- Las Vegas, NV
4- Raleigh-Cary, NC
5- Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
6- Provo-Orem, UT
7- Greeley, CO
8- Austin, TX
9- Myrtle Beach, SC
10- Bend, OR

36
Q

Rate of census

A

In 1990 & 2000 - 65% of households responded by mail

2010- 74% responded by mail

2020- 80% responded online

37
Q

2030 - Primary driver of population growth

A

Immigration projected to overtake natural increase

(because of population aging)

38
Q

2030 - Age

A

All baby boomers will be older than 65

One in 5 Americans will be of retirement age

By 2034 older adults will outnumber children for the 1st time in US history

39
Q

2020 Census population growth

A

Biggest national growth slowdown since 1930s

16 states lost population
(NY & Illinois had largest drops in population)

Texas and Florida grew

40
Q

Race trends - 2010 census

A

US to become plurality nation
BECOMING MORE DIVERSE

Non Hispanic white - remain largest single group but no group is in the majority.

41
Q

Age trends - 2010 census

A

Population 65 & older - to more than DOULBE between 2012 & 2060 to 92 million.

Become 1 in 5 people.

Population 85 & older to TRIPLE, reaching 4.3% of total population

42
Q

Overall growth trends - 2010 census

A

Population to grow much more slowly

Due to lower projected net births & lower net international migration

43
Q

YEARS for the generations

A

BOOMERS: Born between 1946 - 1964
GEN X: 1965 - 1976
ECHO BOOM: 1979 - 1995
MILLENIALS: (children of baby boomers) 1977 - 2000
GEN Z: born after 2000

44
Q

Minor Civil Division (MCD) & Census County Divisions.

A

MCD is unit used in 29 states. - Corresponds to a municipality.

Census county divisions: used in the 21 states that don’t have MCDs.

45
Q

Megalopolis

A

1961- Jean Gottman coined the phrase.
Book = Megalopolis- about the 300 miles between Boston & DC

Megacity = megalopolis
- Areas with more than 10 million people.

46
Q

Hierarchy of census entities

A

Census tract -> Blocks -> Block Groups

47
Q

Trend extrapolation

A

Assumed changes in local growth of the previous year will continue at same rate into the future.

48
Q

What is true of women in the workforce?

A
  • Pre-pandemic women were the majority of the workforce
  • Women own 40% of all businesses
  • Women hold 7.4 percent of Fortune 500 CEO roles
49
Q

Example of U.S. Census Bureau household surveys:

A

Current Population Survey
American Household Survey
National Crime Victimization Survey

50
Q

How many units are owner occupied according to the US census?

A

65%

51
Q

Rural population:

A

Only 4 states have a majority rural population.

CG AICP (27 decks)

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