Conflict in the Middle East: 3.3

Question 1

Give a timeline of attempts at a solution to the conflict from 1988-2000 (no details necessary)

Answer 1

• July 1988
  [] Hussein renounced Jordanian claims to the West Bank, meaning Arafat could propose it as a new Palestinian state’s heartland
• November 1988
  [] Arafat announced PLO recognition of Israel and desire for 2 state solution
  [] USA put greater pressure on Israel to negotiate with the PLO
• December 1988
  [] Arafat’s speech to the UN renouncing terrorism
• 1990-91
  [] Gulf War
  [] PLO bankrupted and discredited by 1991 due to decision to back Saddam Hussein (lost funding and support from Arab states)
• 1991
  [] Cold War ends + USSR beginning to be dissolved
• November 1991
  [] USA and USSR held peace conference in Madrid; all Arab nations, PLO and Israel invited
• April 1992
  [] Arafat survived plane crash into Libyan desert, reviving his image as the Palestinian leader
  [] stronger negotiation position with Israel now
• June 1992
  [] Rabin (Israeli PM) took power
  [] more willing to compromise with the PLO for peace
• April 1993
  [] first Hamas suicide bombing; made Arafat seem moderate in comparison to the Israelis
• 1993
  [] Oslo Accords Peace Talks take place
• September 1993
  [] Rabin and Arafat meet in Washington to sign the Oslo Accords
• October 1994
  [] Israel-Jordan peace treaty
• 1995
  [] Oslo II signed
  [] two months after Oslo II signed, Rabin assassinated by Jewish extremist Yigal Amir
• 1995-96
  [] Arafat + PLO returned from Tunisia
  [] PNA (Palestinian National Authority) set up as well as police force
  [] elections for Palestinian president held
  [] Arafat = Palestinian president 1996
  [] Israeli withdrawal began slowly
  [] progress ground to a halt due to both Israel and Palestinians believing the other weren’t fulfilling their side of the Oslo Accords
• 2000
  [] second Intifada marked failure of Oslo II

Question 2

Describe why Arafat decided on a change in tactics and policies towards Israel in 1988

Answer 2

• leadership of Palestinians overshadowed the the UNLU and new Palestinian terrorist groups like Hamas and the Islamic Jihad
  [] these didn’t take orders from the PLO
  [] their violence may have turned global sympathy gained during the Intifada away, which would’ve been devastating to the Palestinian cause
• Arafat knew the ambition of destroying Israel was unachievable, due to Israel’s strength and overseas aid from the USA
  [] ordinary Palestinians needed peace and land, not a permanent struggle for an ideal goal
• Hussein’s renunciation of Jordanian claim to the West Bank was a perfect opportunity to propose a new Palestinian state with the West Bank as its heartland
  [] change in policy towards Israel was the best way to gain international support and thus increase chances of doing so
• sympathy gained during the Intifada could be used to bring peace for Palestinians whilst the world was still on their side

Question 3

Describe the positive and negative impacts of Arafat’s renunciation of terrorism to the UN upon the USA’s insistence in December of 1988

Answer 3

• positive:
  [] USA agreed to open negotiations with the PLO
  [] USA agreed to pressure Israel into negotiations for peace with the PLO
• negative:
  [] Israel would always see the PLO as terrorists and were resistant to negotiation
  [] Arafat’s two-state solution was unacceptable to Israel as it meant they would lose land AND Jerusalem (Arafat wanted Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian state)
  [] Arafat’s peace initiative rejected by Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, who wanted only the complete destruction of Israel

Question 4

What was the first Gulf War (1990-91) ?

Answer 4

• summer 1990
  [] Iraq (led by Saddam Hussein) in massive debts after 8 year Iraqi-Iranian war; saw Kuwait’s oil as solution as could sell and profit
  [] Iraq invaded Kuwait
  [] Saddam Hussein miscalculated international reaction to the invasion; condemned globally and only had the support of a few Arab states and the PLO
• January 1991
  [] UN approved coalition of 34 countries led by the US launched “Operation Desert Storm” and drove the Iraqis from Kuwait

Question 5

Describe the significance of the Gulf War for Middle Eastern politics

Answer 5

• first time so many Arab states had openly co-operated with the USA and were on the SAME SIDE AS ISRAEL
  [] initially, many Middle Eastern states opposed to US intervention and thus escalation of involvement/influence in the Middle East, however were convinced by US offers of aid
  [] as result of the war, USA regarded with less hostility by Arabs, putting it in a stronger place to act as a peace broker between Israel and Palestine
• Israel improved its reputation in the West after the Gulf War
  [] showed restraint when Saddam Hussein fired scud missiles on Israel, destroying 4000 Israeli homes, in hopes of provoking a reprisal that would’ve split the US-led coalition and caused doubt in the Arab nations’ following of the USA
• PLO discredited and defunded by Arab nations as a result of its support of Saddam Hussein during the war
  [] SUPPORTED HIM BECAUSE SADDAM HAD ALWAYS OPENLY BACKED THE PLO
  [] Palestinians cheered when scud missiles fell on Israeli targets; HORRIBLE publicity and Palestine all but lost the worldwide sympathy it had gained during the first Intifada, putting Arafat in a much weaker position to negotiate for a Palestinian state with Israel - would have to lower demands to achieve anything

Question 6

When did the USSR dissolve ?

Answer 6

December 1991

Question 7

Describe the significance of the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the USSR for Middle Eastern politics

Answer 7

• PLO lost main source of finance and arms, further weakening Arafat’s bargaining position with Israel
  [] Soviet Jews began to move into Israel and settle in the West Bank, weakening Arafat’s proposition of a Palestinian heartland in the West Bank FURTHER; not good, needed to move fast to negotiate
  [] the arrival of Soviet Jews also weakened the economies of the West Bank and Gaza, as less Palestinians were employed in Israel in favour of the Soviet Jews
• Israel lost its importance to the US as the only Middle Eastern ally, as the USA was now the dominant superpower anyway
  [] needed to be on extremely good terms and do exactly what the US wanted to continue receiving aid and attention over other Middle Eastern countries
  [] USA had increased control over Israel politically and could exemplify this further by threatening to withhold financial aid if Israel didn’t comply with its wishes
  [] financial aid crucial at this point due toe the arrival of Soviet Jews to build settlements, schools etc.
• made Arab nations dependent on the US for any sort of aid also
  [] had to comply with US wishes and US had greater pressure over Arab nations to negotiate peace with and recognition of Israel

Question 8

Describe the (lack of) outcomes of the Madrid Peace Conference of 1991

Answer 8

• Israel refused to talk to any Palestinians outside of the West Bank and Gaza
  [] thus didn’t talk to Arafat and the PLO (still based in Tunisia at this point)
• Lebanon and Syria refused to talk to Israel unless it talked to PLO
• vicious cycle, meaning negotiations got nowhere even after multiple meetings in Washington, Madrid and Moscow

Question 9

Describe the key reasons for peace talks finally opening between Israel and Palestine in 1993

Answer 9

• Arafat survived plane crash in 1992, reviving his image as the leader of the Palestinian cause when Palestinians rejoiced at news of his survival
  [] put Arafat in stronger position to continue negotiations and use original, not lowered, demands
• June 1992, Rabin took power
  [] much more open to negotiation with Palestinians and organising peace if it meant ending the Intifada (made occupied territories very expensive to Israel to run)
• April 1993, Hamas suicide bombings made Arafat look moderate in comparison to other Palestinian groups
  [] Rabin saw that Arafat could be negotiated with in comparison, and made negotiations with the PLO seem like the lesser evil

NOTE: BOTH RABIN AND ARAFAT HAD WANTED TO OPEN PEACE TALKS ALL ALONG, BUT COULDN’T DO SO WITHOUT RISK OF CRITICISM FROM THEIR OWN PEOPLE (any compromise seen as betrayal from both extremist Jews and extremist/rejectionist Palestinians)

Question 10

Describe the key events and features of the Oslo Peace Talks in 1993

Answer 10

• Norway talks were top secret, meaning safety from extremist criticism for both Rabin and Arafat
  [] not even USA knew about the talks
• Rabin and Arafat sent moderate representatives in their places
  [] Norwegian Foreign Minister Holst worked to create relaxed, friendly atmosphere and broke ice when his 4 year-old son played with the Israeli and Palestinian negotiators
• Oslo Accords were not a peace treaty, but a joint commitment to work at finding a solution over the next 5 years

Question 11

Describe the terms of the Oslo Accords

Answer 11

• Israel to accept PLO as the Palestinian representatives
  [] Arafat allowed to return from Tunisia
• PLO to renounce violence
• PLO to accept Israel’s right to exist
• both sides agree to the establishment of a PNA (Palestinian National Authority)
  [] initially run by the PLO but eventually members to be democratically elected by Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza
• over the next 5 years, Israeli forces to withdraw from parts of the West Bank and transfer their control to the PNA
• Gaza to be fully under PNA control
• negotiations to take place on “difficult” issues
  [] placement of borders
  [] what to do about Israeli settlers living in PNA land as well as Palestinian refugees living abroad
  [] who controlled Jerusalem
• permanent peace treaty to be signed at the end of the 5 years

Question 12

Describe the impacts of the Oslo Accords for Israel and Palestine

Answer 12

• Palestinian:
  [] joy at finally having a state and opportunity to rebuild economy
  [] Arafat returned and PNA set up as well as police force and elections held - Arafat = president in 1996
  [] Israeli withdrawal began, giving more land to Palestinians
  [] recognised Israel publicly
• Israeli:
  [] peace and security from terrorist attacks
  [] recognised Palestine publicly

Question 13

Describe why King Hussein signed the Jordanian-Israeli peace treaty in 1994

Answer 13

• Hussein couldn’t afford to continue conflict with Israel
  [] had massive debts to the USA
  [] had to support massive amounts of Palestinian refugees that took a toll on Jordanian economy
• the USA bribed him into peace settlement via offering to forgive all Jordanian debts
  [] demonstrates influence of the US on Middle Eastern politics after the Cold War; single superpower, no opposition, singularly controlled mass aid to countries and could pressure or bribe accordingly

Question 14

Describe the terms and agreements of Oslo II, 1995

Answer 14

• outlined 3 areas of the West Bank and what would happen with each in order to resolve confusion and vagueness about which “parts” of the West Bank would come under PNA control
• Area A:
  [] controlled entirely by PNA
  [] 3% of the West Bank
  [] no Israelis including settlers allowed to enter this part of the West Bank
  [] PNA to clamp down on terrorist attacks on Israel from this area
• Area B:
  [] under joint Israeli military control and PNA control
  [] had 440 Palestinian villages and their surrounding areas; no Israeli settlers were present in Area B
  [] amounted to 25% of the West Bank
  [] Israeli military to withdraw once security issues had been resolved
• Area C:
  [] under sole Israeli control
  [] 110 000 Jewish settlers in this area
  [] parts of this area would be gradually transferred to PNA control
• 72% of the West Bank

Question 15

Describe Israeli and Palestinian reactions to Oslo II, 1995

Answer 15

• Palestinian:
  [] moderate Palestinians who had been optimistic at the time of September 1993 shocked by the fact that so much of the West Bank was to remain in Israeli hands
  [] Area C controlled most of the West Bank’s most fertile land and natural resources
  [] movement between areas A and B due to the distribution of area C would be extremely difficult
  [] PFLP, Hamas and Islamic Jihad rejected entirely as expected
• Israeli:
  [] delighted by the prospect of peace and keeping so much land
  [] Israeli settlers objected to giving up any parts of the Promised Land despite this
  [] extremist Jews saw Rabin as a traitor to Judaism and to Israel - assassinated by Yigal Amir, stunning the Israeli public (gathered in hundreds of thousands and lit candles to remember him - funeral attended by many world leaders)

Question 16

Describe the reasons for the failure of the Oslo Accords on both the Palestinian and Israeli sides

Answer 16

• Palestinian:
  [] Oslo Accords meant to give land and a chance for economic rebuilding, but only gave them full control of 3% of the West Bank
  [] as Jewish settlements in Area C grew, less likely to gain more land as promised by the Accords, thus Israel not fulfilling its side of the bargain
  [] movement between Palestinian areas proved difficult due to distribution of Area C coming in between areas A and B, and Israeli roadblocks made even harder
  [] economic growth of the West Bank and Gaza stalled, though mostly due to Arafat’s rejection of UN reconstruction plans (feared losing authority again) and the wariness of international donors due to corruption in the Palestinian government
• Israeli:
  [] Oslo Accords meant to give security and peace
  [] attacks from PFLP, Hamas and Islamic Jihad couldn’t be stopped by Arafat, and Arafat didn’t do anything to disarm these groups either
  [] Israel felt Arafat failing his side of the bargain
  [] in response, continued growing Jewish settlements in Area C, making transfer of land to the PNA in future unlikely, and made movement between Palestinian towns and villages more difficult via implementing roadblocks and prevented contact between Gaza and the West Bank for “safety” from terrorist organisation