Probability

Question 1

What problems to we have in science?

Answer 1

1. The uncertainty in drawing conclusions
2. The incompleteness of data

Question 2

What does probabilistic reasoning tell us?

Answer 2

The human mind makes use of finite informaiton to draw reasonable inferences that can help us with decision-making

Question 3

Bayes theorem

Answer 3

P(A/B) = [P(B/A)P(A)]/ [P(B/A)P(A) + P(B/A-)P(A-)

Question 4

Base rate

Answer 4

The proportion of people in a population who have a specific medical condition before any testing or screening is done

Question 5

Clinical guidelines

Answer 5

Recommendations to help doctors and patients make the best healthcare decisions

Question 6

What are the 2 elements that determining the clinical guidelines?

Answer 6

1. the base rate
2. the sensitivity of the test

Question 7

What can the base rate change according to?

Answer 7

environmental factors or genetic factors

Question 8

What is base rate fallacy?

Answer 8

Intuitions tend to lead us to the wrong conclusions: it occurs when the overall prevalence of a disease is ignored leading to incorrect conclusions about the likelihood of a diagnosis

Question 9

How does our rationality work?

Answer 9

In 2 modes:
1. calculative mode
2. Intuitive mode

Question 10

Why may our sample not be representative?

Answer 10

Because we exclude big sections of a population such as pregnant women: the person giving consent to being in an experimental trial is not the same as the person in the uterus