Guide - Section 2.8 (Deck#1) - Uncertainty Performance Domain Flashcards
Intro, General Uncertainty, Ambiguity, Complexity
Successfully navigating uncertainty begins with…
understanding the larger environment within which the project is operating
Aspects of the environment that contribute to project uncertainty include, but are not limited to:
(PESTLE)
- Economic factors
- Technical considerations
- Legal or legislative contraints or requirements
- Physical environment
- Ambiguity with current or future conditions
- Social and market influences
- Political influences - either external or internal to the org
Volatility in prices, availability of resources, ability to borrow funds, and inflation/deflation are all examples of what environmental aspect related to uncertainty?
Economic factors
New or emerging technology, complexity associated with systems, and interfaces are all examples of what environmental aspect related to uncertainty?
Technical considerations
Safety, weather, and working conditions are all examples of what environmental aspect related to uncertainty?
Physical environment
What environmental aspect related to uncertainty is shaped by opinion and media?
Social and market influences
What are four general options to respond to uncertainty?
(I, MO, SBD, R)
- Gather information
- Prepare for multiple outcomes
- Set-based design
- Build in resilience
What are two general categories of ambiguity?
- conceptual
- situational
What type of ambiguity doe the following describe? The lack of effective understanding—occurs when people use similar terms
or arguments in different ways.
Conceptual ambiguity
What type of ambiguity occurs when there is more than one outcome that is possible?
Situational ambiguity
Solutions for exploration of ambiguity
include what three options?
- Progressive elaboration
- Experiments
- Prototypes
What is an iterative process of increasing the level of detail in a project management plan as greater amounts of information and more accurate estimates become available called?
Progressive elaboration
What can help identify cause-and-effect relationships or, at least, can reduce the amount of ambiguity?
Experiments
What can help distinguish the relationships between different variables?
Prototypes
formally establishing common rules and definitions of terms, such as what does “on track” mean can reduce which type of ambiguity?
Conceptual ambiguity
A lack of understanding and awareness of issues, events, paths to follow,
or solutions to pursue.
Uncertainty
A state of not knowing or unpredictability
A state of being unclear, having difficulty in identifying the cause of events, or
having multiple options from which to choose.
Ambiguity
A characteristic of a program or project or its environment that is difficult to
manage due to human behavior, system behavior, and ambiguity.
Complexity
The possibility for rapid and unpredictable change.
Volatility
An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on one or more project objectives.
Risk
The ability to adapt and respond quickly to unexpected changes.
Resilience
What are three general ways to work with complexity?
- system based
- reframing
- process based
Decoupling and simulations are two examples of what?
System based ways to work with complexity
What entails disconnecting parts of the system to both simplify the
system and reduce the number of connected variables?
Decoupling
System based
Determining how a piece of a system works on its own reduces the overall size of the problem.
What involves similar though unrelated scenarios that can be used to simulate components of a system as a strategy to address complexity?
Simulation
System based
Example - A project to build a new airport that includes an area with shopping and restaurants can learn about consumer buying habits by seeking out analogous information on shopping malls and entertainment establishments.
What can include brainstorming with the project team to open up divergent ways of seeing the system as a strategy to address complexity?
Diversity reframing
Reframing
Complex systems require viewing the system from diverse perspectives.
It can also include Delphi-like processes to move from divergent to convergent
thinking.
What process can be used to arrive at a group opinion or decision by surveying a panel of experts. Experts respond to several rounds of questionnaires, and the responses are aggregated and shared with the group after each round.
Delphi
Diversity reframing
What type of thinking focuses on reaching one well-defined solution to a problem?
Convergent thinking
Best suited for tasks that involve logic as opposed to creativity, such as answering multiple-choice tests or solving a problem where you know there are no other possible solutions.
What type of thinking generates ideas and develops multiple solutions to a problem?
Divergent thinking
While divergent thinking often involves brainstorming for many possible answers to a question, the goal is the same as convergent thinking—to arrive at the best solution.
What can include using elements whose variations are likely to counteract each other’s potential negative effects?
Balance
Balancing the type of data used rather than only using forecasting data or data
that report on the past or lagging indicators provides a broader perspective.
What example of working with complexity involves adding features one at a time as a strategy to address complexity?
Iterate
Process based strategy
After each iteration, identify what worked, what did not work, customer reaction, and what the project team learned.
What example of working with complexity reduces the number
of assumptions and builds learning and interaction into the process as a strategy to adress complexity?
Engage
Process-based strategy
Build in opportunities to get stakeholder engagement.
What example of working with complexity builds in redundancy or elements that can provide a graceful degradation of functionality in the event of a critical component failure as a strategy to address complexity?
Fail safe
Process-based strategy
Used for elements of a system that are critical
