Guide - Section 2.8 (Deck#1) - Uncertainty Performance Domain

Question 1

Successfully navigating uncertainty begins with…

Answer 1

understanding the larger environment within which the project is operating

Question 2

Aspects of the environment that contribute to project uncertainty include, but are not limited to:

(PESTLE)

Answer 2

1. Economic factors
2. Technical considerations
3. Legal or legislative contraints or requirements
4. Physical environment
5. Ambiguity with current or future conditions
6. Social and market influences
7. Political influences - either external or internal to the org

Question 3

Volatility in prices, availability of resources, ability to borrow funds, and inflation/deflation are all examples of what environmental aspect related to uncertainty?

Answer 3

Economic factors

Question 4

New or emerging technology, complexity associated with systems, and interfaces are all examples of what environmental aspect related to uncertainty?

Answer 4

Technical considerations

Question 5

Safety, weather, and working conditions are all examples of what environmental aspect related to uncertainty?

Answer 5

Physical environment

Question 6

What environmental aspect related to uncertainty is shaped by opinion and media?

Answer 6

Social and market influences

Question 7

What are four general options to respond to uncertainty?

(I, MO, SBD, R)

Answer 7

1. Gather information
2. Prepare for multiple outcomes
3. Set-based design
4. Build in resilience

Question 8

What are two general categories of ambiguity?

Answer 8

1. conceptual
2. situational

Question 9

What type of ambiguity doe the following describe? The lack of effective understanding—occurs when people use similar terms
or arguments in different ways.

Answer 9

Conceptual ambiguity

Question 10

What type of ambiguity occurs when there is more than one outcome that is possible?

Answer 10

Situational ambiguity

Question 11

Solutions for exploration of ambiguity
include what three options?

Answer 11

1. Progressive elaboration
2. Experiments
3. Prototypes

Question 12

What is an iterative process of increasing the level of detail in a project management plan as greater amounts of information and more accurate estimates become available called?

Answer 12

Progressive elaboration

Question 13

What can help identify cause-and-effect relationships or, at least, can reduce the amount of ambiguity?

Answer 13

Experiments

Question 14

What can help distinguish the relationships between different variables?

Answer 14

Prototypes

Question 15

formally establishing common rules and definitions of terms, such as what does “on track” mean can reduce which type of ambiguity?

Answer 15

Conceptual ambiguity

Question 16

A lack of understanding and awareness of issues, events, paths to follow,
or solutions to pursue.

Answer 16

Uncertainty
A state of not knowing or unpredictability

Question 17

A state of being unclear, having difficulty in identifying the cause of events, or
having multiple options from which to choose.

Answer 17

Ambiguity

Question 18

A characteristic of a program or project or its environment that is difficult to
manage due to human behavior, system behavior, and ambiguity.

Answer 18

Complexity

Question 19

The possibility for rapid and unpredictable change.

Answer 19

Volatility

Question 20

An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on one or more project objectives.

Answer 20

Risk

Question 21

The ability to adapt and respond quickly to unexpected changes.

Answer 21

Resilience

Question 22

What are three general ways to work with complexity?

Answer 22

1. system based
2. reframing
3. process based

Question 23

Decoupling and simulations are two examples of what?

Answer 23

System based ways to work with complexity

Question 24

What entails disconnecting parts of the system to both simplify the
system and reduce the number of connected variables?

Answer 24

Decoupling
System based
Determining how a piece of a system works on its own reduces the overall size of the problem.

Question 25

What involves similar though unrelated scenarios that can be used to simulate components of a system as a strategy to address complexity?

Answer 25

Simulation
System based
Example - A project to build a new airport that includes an area with shopping and restaurants can learn about consumer buying habits by seeking out analogous information on shopping malls and entertainment establishments.

Question 26

What can include brainstorming with the project team to open up divergent ways of seeing the system as a strategy to address complexity?

Answer 26

Diversity reframing
Reframing
Complex systems require viewing the system from diverse perspectives.
It can also include Delphi-like processes to move from divergent to convergent
thinking.

Question 27

What process can be used to arrive at a group opinion or decision by surveying a panel of experts. Experts respond to several rounds of questionnaires, and the responses are aggregated and shared with the group after each round.

Answer 27

Delphi
Diversity reframing

Question 28

What type of thinking focuses on reaching one well-defined solution to a problem?

Answer 28

Convergent thinking

Best suited for tasks that involve logic as opposed to creativity, such as answering multiple-choice tests or solving a problem where you know there are no other possible solutions.

Question 29

What type of thinking generates ideas and develops multiple solutions to a problem?

Answer 29

Divergent thinking

While divergent thinking often involves brainstorming for many possible answers to a question, the goal is the same as convergent thinking—to arrive at the best solution.

Question 30

What can include using elements whose variations are likely to counteract each other’s potential negative effects?

Answer 30

Balance

Balancing the type of data used rather than only using forecasting data or data
that report on the past or lagging indicators provides a broader perspective.

Question 31

What example of working with complexity involves adding features one at a time as a strategy to address complexity?

Answer 31

Iterate
Process based strategy
After each iteration, identify what worked, what did not work, customer reaction, and what the project team learned.

Question 32

What example of working with complexity reduces the number
of assumptions and builds learning and interaction into the process as a strategy to adress complexity?

Answer 32

Engage
Process-based strategy
Build in opportunities to get stakeholder engagement.

Question 33

What example of working with complexity builds in redundancy or elements that can provide a graceful degradation of functionality in the event of a critical component failure as a strategy to address complexity?

Answer 33

Fail safe
Process-based strategy
Used for elements of a system that are critical