Guide - Section 2.4 (DECK #3) - Planning Performance

Question 1

What can be useful
when taking into account
the uncertainty and risk
associated with complex or high-risk projects
where there are many factors that can impact the outcome?

Answer 1

Probabilistic Estimating

Question 2

How does the process of Probabilistic Estimating work?
Hint (WA/S)

Answer 2

(a) developing a weighted average based on multiple likely outcomes

or

(b) running a simulation to develop a probability analysis of a particular outcome, usually in terms of cost or schedule

Question 3

What is a weighted average?

Answer 3

Type of average that takes into account the relative importance, or weight, of each value in a data set.

Each value in the data set is multiplied by a corresponding weight, and then the sum of the weighted values is divided by the sum of the weights. This results in a single value that represents the weighted average of the data set.

For example, consider a student’s grades in a course where tests are worth 50% of the grade and assignments are worth 50% of the grade. If the student scored 80% on the tests and 90% on the assignments, the weighted average of their grades would be:

(80% x 0.5) + (90% x 0.5) = 85%

In this example, each score is multiplied by its corresponding weight (0.5 for both tests and assignments) and then added together. The resulting sum (85) is divided by the total weight (1.0) to obtain the weighted average of 85%.

Question 4

A probabilistic estimate derived from a computer simulation has what three associated factors?
Hint (P,C,P)

Answer 4

1. A point estimate with a range such as 36 months +3 months/-1 month.
2. A statement of confidence such as a 95% confidence level.
3. A probability distribution describing the dispersion of the data within and around the given range.

Question 5

What is Probabilistic Estimating?
HInt (R&P)

Answer 5

A type of estimating that includes a range of estimates
along with the associated probabilities within the range.

Question 6

What kind of estimates include a range of estimates along with the associated probabilities within the range?

Answer 6

Probabalistic estimates

Question 7

Deterministic vs Probablistic?

Answer 7

1. Deterministic (point estimates) - singel value estimate or a parameter
2. Probablistic (interval) - range of estimates with associated probabilities

Question 8

Absolute vs relative estimates?

Answer 8

1. Absolute - are specific and expressed at numbers
2. Relative - shown in comparison to other estimates (only have meaning within a given context)

Question 9

What type of estimates predict the time required to complete a project or task?

What is its basis?

Answer 9

Flow Based Estimates
The idea behind flow-based estimating is to use historical data on flow efficiency to estimate the time required to complete a similar project or task.

Question 10

What is Flow Efficiency?

Answer 10

Flow Efficiency = value added time / total cycle time

The ratio of value-added time (the time spent on activities that directly contribute to the project) to total cycle time (the time from the start of a project to its completion).

Question 11

What is the total elapsed time it takes one unit to get through a process?

Answer 11

cycle time

Question 12

What is the number of items that can complete a process in a given amount of time?

Answer 12

throughput

Question 13

Name 5 examples of relative estimates in project management?

Answer 13

1. Story Points (effort required)
2. Planning Poker (complexity, difficulty)
3. T-Shirt Sizing (overall lift required compared to other tasks)
4. Bucket Estimates (general complexity, effort or risk)
5. Expert Judgement (in put and estimates from experienced team members)

Question 14

Name 5 examples of absolute estimates?

Answer 14

1. time estimates
2. cost estimates
3. scope estimates (amount of work required to complete a task or project)
4. resource estimates
5. quality estimates (level of quality that will be achieved in the final project deliverables)

Question 15

What are the 5 key steps involved in flow based estimating?

Answer 15

1. Define scope
2. Gather historical data
3. Analyze data (identify factors that impact flow efficiency, such as process bottlenecks or resource constraints)
4. Estimate time required
5. Refine the estimate

Question 16

Why is flow based estimating a powerful too?

What 2 aspects does it leverage?

Answer 16

It provides a data-driven approach to estimating project timelines.

1. historical data
2. flow efficiency metrics

Question 17

What is a model for executing a project’s activities?

Answer 17

a schedule

Question 18

Name 5 steps for schedule planning that the predictive approach employs?

Answer 18

1. decompose scope into specific activities
2. sequence related activities
3. estimate effort, duration, people and physical resources required for each activity
4. allocate resources
5. adjust the sequence, estimates and resources until an agreed upon schedule is complete

Question 19

What does adaptive approach to schedule planning employ?

Answer 19

Incremental planning
based on iterations and releases