Performing Risk Analysis Flashcards
Tools and Techniques for Risk Analysis
Expert Judgement Data Gathering Data Analysis Interpersonal and team skills Risk Categorization Data representation Meetings (usually with Data Gathering)
Risk Data Quality Assessment
Data Analysis technique for Risk Analysis determine integrity 3 criteria- Reliability Accuracy Relevancy
Risk Characteristics/Parameters
urgency proximity dormancy manageability controllability detectability connectivity strategic impact propinquity probability impact
Probability and Impact Matrix
hierarchical charts
3 point estimate
from interviewing experts (data gathering for risk analysis) Triangle of Most Likely Best Scenario Works Scenario calculation: Worst x probability \+ most x probability \+ best x probability
PERT
used with 3 point estimate most likely= 4 best, works =1 calculation: [(most likely x 4) (best) (worst)] / 6
Probability Distribution
graph where probabilities lie
discrete- probability of fixed # of outcomes (bar chart)
continuous- full range of possibilities (line chart)
Level of Uncertainty
related to 3 point estimate
= (best scenario-worst scenario) / 6
4 types of Continuous probability distribution
Normal- highest point is average (bell curve)
Uniform- all known limits have equal probability (flat line) ex: dice
Beta- Between min and max values (like bell, but skewed one way or another)
Triangular- plot over three values; best , worst, likely (high point is best guess)
Beta and Triangular are used most often
Sensitivity Analysis
part of data analysis for Risk analysis
test how changes in one variable impact others
do this for each variable to see which has greatest impact
results shown as tornado diagram
Tornado Diagram
results of sensitivity analysis, ordered by impact
bars to left and right of 0
Decision Trees
Data Analysis technique for Risk Analysis
choice of options in diagram
- determine significance and prioritize risks
-realistic contingencies
-impact of risks on schedule
Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
= impact x probability
Risk Simulation
data analysis technique for Risk Analysis
how system is likely to react to risk
ex Monte Carlo Simulation
Updates to Risk Report
add results of quantitative risk analysis
- probabilistic analysis of project
- project risk exposure
- reprioritized risks
- trends
- recommended risk responses
