Module 6 - Manley Ch 7 - Causes

Question 1

What is the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc?

Answer 1

Assuming that because one event follows another, the first caused the second.

Question 2

Why are humans prone to seeing causal connections even when they don’t exist?

Answer 2

Our minds are pattern-seeking and evolved to err on the side of caution in detecting potential threats or opportunities.

Question 3

What is a correlation?

Answer 3

A relationship where one factor occurs at a higher rate when another factor is present, but without necessarily implying causation.

Question 4

What does it mean for a correlation to be symmetrical?

Answer 4

If A is correlated with B, then B is also correlated with A.

Question 5

How can selective noticing lead to illusory correlations?

Answer 5

By focusing on instances that confirm a perceived relationship while ignoring counterexamples.

Question 6

What are distal and immediate causes?

Answer 6

Immediate causes directly trigger an event, while distal causes are broader, underlying factors.

Question 7

Why is it misleading to ask “What is the cause?” for complex events?

Answer 7

Complex events typically result from multiple interconnected causes, not a single factor.

Question 8

Why are scientific findings often misinterpreted in popular media?

Answer 8

Media tends to oversimplify results, focus on surprising findings, and interpret correlations as causal relationships.

Question 9

How can we better understand the validity of a study reported in the media?

Answer 9

By consulting the original study, expert opinions, or meta-analyses that synthesize evidence from multiple studies.

Question 10

What is reverse causation?

Answer 10

When we incorrectly assume A causes B, but in reality, B causes A.

Question 11

How can reverse causation be identified?

Answer 11

By studying changes over time or designing experiments where causation can be tested.

Question 12

What is a common cause?

Answer 12

A third factor, C, that causes both A and B, creating a misleading correlation.

Question 13

Give an example of a misleading correlation due to a common cause.

Answer 13

Broccoli consumption and health—both may be influenced by health-conscious behavior (common cause).

Question 14

What is the placebo effect?

Answer 14

When a treatment’s effectiveness is due to the expectation of improvement rather than the treatment itself.

Question 15

Why are placebo-controlled trials important?

Answer 15

They isolate the true effect of a treatment by accounting for the placebo effect.

Question 16

What is regression to the mean?

Answer 16

The tendency for extreme data points to move closer to the average on subsequent measurements.

Question 17

How can regression to the mean mislead conclusions about interventions?

Answer 17

Improvements after an intervention might occur naturally due to regression rather than the intervention’s effectiveness.

Question 18

What is an example of a spurious correlation?

Answer 18

Divorce rates in Maine correlating with margarine consumption per capita.

Question 19

How can spurious correlations be avoided?

Answer 19

By evaluating causal plausibility and considering the role of selection effects in identifying patterns.

Question 20

What are the three steps in an argument from correlation to causation?

Answer 20

We observed a correlation between A and B.

There is a general correlation between A and B.

A causes B.

Question 21

What kind of evidence is needed to support the hypothesis “A causes B”?

Answer 21

Evidence with a high strength factor, which is:

Far more likely if A causes B than if it doesn’t.

Far more likely if A does not cause B than if it does.

Question 22

What is the gold standard for establishing causation from correlation?

Answer 22

A double-blind randomized controlled trial (RCT).

Question 23

What does “randomized” mean in a randomized controlled trial?

Answer 23

Subjects are randomly selected and placed into two groups: the treatment group and the control group.

Question 24

What does “double-blind” mean in a randomized controlled trial?

Answer 24

Neither the subjects nor the experimenters interacting with or assessing them know which group the subjects are in.

Question 25

Why is a placebo treatment used in a double-blind trial?

Answer 25

To ensure that the placebo effect is accounted for equally in both the treatment and control groups.

Question 26

What sources of error does a double-blind randomized controlled trial eliminate?

Answer 26

Bias in the sample.
Reverse causation.
Common cause.
Placebo effect.
Regression to the mean.

Question 27

How does randomization in an RCT eliminate sampling bias?

Answer 27

It ensures that subjects are randomly assigned, preventing systematic differences between the groups.

Question 28

Why is a difference between groups in an RCT strong evidence for causation?

Answer 28

Because all other factors (e.g., bias, placebo, regression to the mean) are controlled for, leaving the treatment as the most likely cause of the difference.

Question 29

What strengthens the evidence from a study beyond a single randomized trial?

Answer 29

Robust evidence from multiple studies with consistent results.