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2112 - Foundational Cognition > Week 12 > Flashcards

Week 12 Flashcards

1
Q

Decisions

A
  • The process of making choices between alternatives
  • A commitment to a course of action
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2
Q

Choice Behaviour

A

The Behavioural view of decision making

An individual selects from an array of alternatives to access reinforcement

eg: choosing to study over going out

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3
Q

Dual Systems Approach to Thinking

A
  • Kahneman 2011
  • Two Mental Systems
    • System 1 - fast, automatic, intuitive, nonconscious
    • Sysetm 2 - Slower, deliberate, conscious, controlled
  • Day to day stuff handled by System 1
  • System 2 comes into play when we need to be thoughtful
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4
Q

What Makes it a Good Decision

A
  • Good decisions are better than bad decisions are bad
  • People tend to rate their bad decisions as significantly less important than good decisions
  • The experienced outcome is what classifies decisions as good or bad
  • The quality of a decision is overwhelmingly dominated by outcome.
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5
Q

Expected Utility Theory

A
  • People are rational if they have all relevant information
  • Results in maximum expected utility
  • Desirable because in our best interests
  • Helps us decide what will be best outcome
  • People don’t always choose optimum strategy
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6
Q

Expected Utility

A
  • People do not usually follow the best decision making procedures
  • Most people picked the large bowl despite lower odds
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7
Q

Prospect Theory

A

People identify a reference point that defines their current state of mind

People are more sensitive to potential loss than to potential gain

Known as loss aversion

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8
Q

Loss Aversion

A
  • Individuals are much more sensitive to potential losses than to
    potential gains
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9
Q

Emotions and Decision Making

A
  • Emotions play a role in decision making
  • People with Prefrontal Cortex damage have flattened emotions
  • Also inability to respond to emotional events
  • Have impaired decision making
  • Perhaps because it is difficult evaluate emotional outcome that result from decisions
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10
Q

Anxious Decision Makers

A

Anxious people tend to avoid potentially negative consequences

Maner & Schmidt 2006

Paulus & Yu 2012

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11
Q

Optimistic Decision Makers

A
  • Optomistic people more likely to ignore negative information and focus on positive
  • Could be causing base decisions to be made on incomplete information
  • Too much optimism may lead to poor decision making
  • Izuma & Adolphs 2011
  • Sharot et al 2011
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12
Q

Expected Emotions

A
  • What people predict they will feel for a particular outcome
  • People inaccurately predict their emotions
  • Can lead to Risk Aversion
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13
Q

Risk Aversion

A

Tendency to avoid taking risks

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14
Q

Expected Emotions Outcomes

A
  • Deborak Kermer & Co 2006
  • They gave subjects $5 and told them that based on a coin flip they would either win an additional $5 or lose $3.
  • People greatly overestimate the expected negative effect of losing (left red bar), compared to the actual effect of losing (right red bar).
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15
Q

Why do people overestimate their negative feelings

A

Perhaps because we don’t take coping mechanisms into account

Unprepared for dealing with adversity

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16
Q

Incidental Emotions

A
  • Emotions not connected to decision making
  • Related to personality & disposition, experience or environment
  • Can affect overall decision making
  • Jennifer Lerner et al 2004
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17
Q

Emotions in Decision Making

A
  • Subjects viewed sad, disgusting or neutral videos
  • Determined price to buy and sell items
  • Low sell price could be due to disgust and sadness causing a need for change
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18
Q

Context in Decision Making

A
  • Shen et al 2010
  • Tested Physicians about a test case for ceasarean
  • Control test case presented first, Serious Previous Cases, Not Serious Previous Cases
  • Test & Not Serious Cases perceived less serious than Serious Cases
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19
Q

Order Effects Parole

A
  • Shai Danziger 2011
  • Studied more than 1000 parole request rulings
  • Favourable responses rose by 65% just after a meal break
  • Dropped to Zero before taking a break
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20
Q

Order Effects

A
  • Decisions can be impacted by preceding events
  • Baseball umpires are more likely to call a border line pitch a strike if the preceding pitches were balls, and vice versa
  • MacMahon & Starkes , 2008
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21
Q

Status Quo Bias

A
  • People tend to do nothing when faced with a decision to make a change in their lives
  • e.g. Switching Banks, Changing Electricity Company
  • Johnson et al 1993
    • Pennsylvania and New Jersey drivers defaulted to different insurance
    • Most people stick with the default option
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22
Q

Opt-In vs Opt-Out

A
  • People tend to do nothing when faced with the need to opt in
  • Johnson & Goldstein 2003
  • Australia, Germany, UK, Denmark have Opt-in Organ donation but low rates of donation.
  • In Australia 69% believe organ donation is important
  • France, Belgium, Singapore have Opt-out systems with 90% consent for organ donation
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23
Q

Tversky & Kahneman 1981

A
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24
Q

Framing Effect

A

Decisions are influenced by how a decision is stated

If framed in terms of gain people choose risk aversion strategy

If framed as losses the tendency is to risk taking stragety

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25
Q

Anchoring Bias

A
  • Initial Information used to make judgements
  • Once anchor is set we adjust away from the anchor
  • Bias toward favouring the bias will occur
26
Q

Anchoring Bias

A

Tversky & Kanheman 1974

Initial pieces of information use to make subsequent judgments

e.g. African Countries and the Rigged spinning wheel

27
Q

What is a decision?

A

Making Choices between alternatives

28
Q

Behaviorist view of decision making

A

A choice between two alternatives

Based on Relative reinforcement value of the alternatives

29
Q

Quality Outcomes

A

Quality of a decision is overwhelmingly measured by the outcome

30
Q

Expected Utility Theory

A

People are rational if they have all relevant information

This should tend to result in choices in the maximum utility

31
Q

Prospect Theory

A

Individuals identify a reference point that represents their state of mind

The tend to exhibit loss aversion

32
Q

What plays a role in decision making?

A

Emotions, Context and Biases

33
Q

Dual Systems Approach

A

There are two mental systems we rely on for thinking

System 1 - fast, intuitive, automatic, not conscious

System 2 - Slower, deliberate, conscious and controlled

34
Q

Concsious and Unconscious Decisions

A
  • How well do we know ourselves
  • Are we in control of our minds when it comes to decisions
  • Can we perceive when we use system 1 or system 2

Osman, M. An evaluation of dual process theories of reasoning. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 11, 988 1010 (2004). https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03196730 link

35
Q

The Introspection Illusion

A
  • Nisbett & Wilson 1977
  • Cognitive Bias where people they have insight to their own minds but think other are unreliable
  • People misreport causal influences on their behaviour
  • Rarely better at explaining their own behaviour than other people can
  • Newell & Sharks 2014
  • But given time to reflect they can articulate their decisions process
  • Shows these processes are not hidden or unconscious
36
Q

Impulsiveness & Decision Making

A
  • Ability to inhibit our behaviour responses is important
  • Gives us the ability to evaluate consequences and choose more appropriate actions
37
Q

Motor Impulsivity

A
  • An impairment in withholding and cancelling inappropriate responses
  • Related to Compulsive Gambling and inhibiting the urge to gamble.
  • Chowdhury et al. 2017
38
Q

Delay Discounting

A
  • Humans and Animals choose smaller immediate reward over larger delayed rewards
  • Related to cognitive impulsivity
  • How long people will wait for larger reward
  • Pathological gamblers show more impulsivity
  • Alessi & Petry 2003
39
Q

Training to Reduce Impulsivity

A
  • Training in the Stop-Signal Task improves performance
  • Increases Intracortical Inhibition to Motor Cortex
  • Demonstrates neuroplasticity in the primary cortex
40
Q

Working Memory Training

A
  • Decreases impulsivity in delay discounting tasks among stimulant addicts
  • Warren et al 2011
41
Q

Go/NoGo Task

A
  • Significantly better in experienced basketball players
  • Non athletes much less so
  • Less variable reaction time that baseball players
  • Makamoto & Shiro 2008
42
Q

The Perruchet Effect

A

When unconscious behaviour and conscious decisions disagree

Each toss has 50% chance of landing heads

43
Q

Gamblers Fallacy

A

After the same outcome a few times it will be more likely in the future

44
Q

The Conditioned Perruchet Effect

A
45
Q

Speed/Accuracy Trade Off

A
  • The choices we make (accuracy) and how fast we make them (response times) can serve as a window into the mind.
46
Q

Introspection Illusion

A
  • A cognitive bias in which people wrongly think they have direct insight into their mental state
  • Treat other’s introspections as unreliable
  • Given time to reflect we can express our decision making accurately
47
Q

Impulsiveness/Cognitive Fallacies

A

Unconscious processes can influence our decision making

48
Q

Training Unconscious Processes

A
  • Training and time can weaken and overcome unconscious processes
  • There is a Speed/Accuracy trade off in decision making
49
Q

Expected Utility Theory:

A
  • People generally are rational
  • If they have all relevant information their choices result in the
    maximum expected utility.
50
Q

Utility

A
  • Outcomes that are desirable
  • Are in the person’s best interest
  • People use their knowledge of probability to make decisions in their best interest
51
Q

The Ellsberg Paradox

A
  • Paradox of choice in which people’s decisions produce inconsistencies with subjective expected utility theory.
  • Contradictory Thinking in decision making
52
Q

Ambiguity Aversion

A

Also known as uncertainty aversion

A preference for known risks over unknown risks.

53
Q

Prospect Theory

A
  • Tversky & Kahneman
  • People did not choose the equivalent options in the same way.
  • How a question is framed influences how people choose
  • People choose certain gain over certain loss
  • People take risk of a loss over a risk of gain
54
Q

Loss Aversion

A
  • Individuals identify a reference point generally representing their
    current state
  • Individuals are much more sensitive to potential losses than to
    potential gains
55
Q

Preference Reversal Effect

A
  • Changes in perspective can completely reverse our preferences
  • Bias towards certainty of favourable outcome
  • Biased against certainty of negative outcome
56
Q

The Monty Hall Problem

A
  • 2/3 probability of winning the car if you choose to switch
  • Initial probability of guessed right on your first choice was 33%.
  • Instead of 3 doors, pick 1 door/100 doors, only one contain car.
  • Probability of picking the correct door is 1/100 compared to 99/100 of you picking the incorrect door.
57
Q

Endowment Effect

A

People tend to overvalue the winning probability of a current choice

58
Q

Status Quo Bias

A

People prefer to stick with the choice they made

59
Q

Errors of Omission vs Errors of Commission Effect

A

People prefer to make errors through inaction

Prefer to avoid errors through action

60
Q

Behaviourist Talk about Decision Making

A

They mean Choice Behaviour

61
Q

Prospect Theory

A
  • People choose expected certain gain over probability of loss even when it is the lesser value option
  • People choose Prospect Theory than Expected Utility Theory

2112 - Foundational Cognition (19 decks)

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