Synoptics-Water

Question 1

Uncertainty of future CC projections

Answer 1

• complexity of climate systems
• natural short-term oscillations e.g. ENSO brings insecurity+ sunspot cycles
• bio geochemical positive+ negative feedback systems
• incomplete set data (not collected all locations+ as detailed)
• no clear evidence flooding getting bigger+ more frequent
• many other factors increase pop riskier locations, land use changes, rising pop, poor farming+ normal variability
• don’t know where+ how much

Question 2

Concerns over water security

Answer 2

• every 1 degrees temp rise amount moisture held atmosphere increase 7% potential heavier precipitation w/ 2010 wettest yr
• change precipitation, temp+ potential ET a severity+ occurrence drought rise
• more intense droughts affects more ppl Aus+ spreading new areas S EU, SW USA+ Sahel
• Loss of snow and glaciers as a store threatens many communities in mountain ares, e.g. Himalayas
• Depleted aquifers lead to problems with groundwater

Question 3

Potential for conflict statistics

Answer 3

• int cooperation more common than exception acc military conflict only occurring 0.5 all drainage basin disagreements since 1950 trad enemies India+ Pakistan signed Indus Water treaty 1960+ honoured
• only 21 extensive military acts+ 17 small scale out of 2,732 events but difficult know full extent where water background factor
• co operation in Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRN) for Colorado basin-> 2007 7 states divided shortages rather supply+ have to reduce usage Cali reduce 20% (extracts), 2017 Minute 323 US inv millions water conservation projects Mexico plugging leaks irrigation canals +helping farmers water efficient tech [still will be able cope temp increase 2 degrees future]

Question 4

Trans-boundary (int) water resources between countries conflict potential Nile

Answer 4

• Egypt dependent 95% water needs but other countries want develop crop irrigation, HEP, industrial development lift out of poverty (mainly desert dependent)
• pop pressure 300m live Nile basin expected 2x 2030+ more wealthy more pressure
• flows thru 7 countries+ water resources shared 11 countries
• 1929 1 Nile Water agreement 86% water Egypt+ Sudan+ Egypt able veto any water use downstream
• 1959 11Nile Water agreements effectively 100% Sudan+ Egypt (colonial powers decide, Ethiopia refuse recognise)
• Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) emerged 1990 10 countries basin exploring partnership world bank 2 action plans 2010 8/10 signed water treaty dating all riparian countries= rights water (Egypt+ Sudan didn’t)
• GERD Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam/ Blue Nile construction since 2011 largest HEP Africa+7th world deny neg impact downstream flow+ contends Egypt increase flow as reduced evaporation cost $4.8bn 15% GDP angry Egyptian demand increase share Nile 66-90%

Question 5

Trans-boundary (int) water resources within a country conflict potential Murray-Darling Basin (SE Aus)

Answer 5

• SUPPLY: 1/7 continent 20 rivers prone drought as v dry + E part drainage lower any historical time 2006-9, total rainfall deficit 1.5m below normal 1996-2008 ENSO cycles exarcebated
• DEMAND: 40% production food, 85% irrigation+ 75% water country, 2m ppl produces wool cattle wine etc recent decades studies repeatedly confirm environ health basin decline- drought over extraction past entitlement system, high salinity lvls +overall poor quality, growth blue- green algae, declining wildlife+ land degradation
• COMPETITION between users: 5x increase water extraction since 1920s irrigation more cash crops replacing cattle agri taking more and demanding (environ groups, indigenous) not everyone happy Basin plan determining how much extracted farmers+ rural communities claim took much taken 1 area 500 farming jobs disappeared 2012-14 pop fell 18%