Proj Devt Flashcards
3 Phases of Project Development
Pre-investment Phase
Investment Phase
Post-investment Phase
Sub-phases of pre-investment phase (4)
Project concept or identification
Project definition or preparation
Project feasibility study
Project approval and financing
Sub-phases of investment phase (2)
Detailed engineering/design
Project implementation
Sub-phases of post-investment phase (2)
Project operation
Ex-post evaluation
Occurs when resources can no longer be reallocated to make some economic agents better off without making one or more individuals worse off
Pareto optimum
Occurs when the gains to those who benefit from a project are sufficient to compensate those who are made worse off and still leave residual benefit
Potential Pareto improvement
This refers to the situations when markets fail to allocate resources efficiently. Some reasons are failure of competition, or monopoly power, public goods, externalities, information failure, and incomplete markets.
Market failure
Refers to the assessment of the project’s commercial profitability and capability to service its obligations. A project’s financial attractiveness to its investors is measured by the use of financial indicators such as ___
Financial analysis, net present value (NPV)
Assessment of the project’s desirability in terms of its net contribution to the economic and social welfare of the country as a whole. Residual benefit is measured by the ___ of the incremental net economic benefits
Economic analysis, net present value (NPV)
A tool used in project analysis to identify and possibly quantify the costs and benefits of a project that accrue to the different project participants, e.g., consumers, suppliers, government, project workers
Distributional or stakeholder impact analysis
An assessment of the adequacy of the local institution responsible for managing the different stages or phases of the project
Institutional analysis
- A technique for assessing a project’s risk
- Simultaneously takes into account the different ranges of possible values and different probability distributions, either continuous or discrete, for key project variables
Monte Carlo simulation
The analysis of project risks associated with the value of key project variables (e.g., price of the good the project will produce, inflation, price of key inputs) and therefore the risk associated with the overall project result
Risk analysis
The analysis of the possible effects of adverse changes on a project
Sensitivity analysis
Costs that are incurred with or without the project and have no opportunity costs to the project
Sunk costs
- The value of the inputs and outputs including the effect of general inflation
- This is the price of a good seen in the market
Nominal/current price
- The value of the inputs and outputs without the effect of general inflation
- It reflects the value of the good relative to the other goods in the economy
Real/constant price
Nominal price formula
Nominal price = real price x (1 + inflation rate)
A process of translating future values into its present worth. This process takes a future peso amount and reduces it by a discount factor that reflects the appropriate interest rate
Discounting
- The difference between the present value of the benefit stream and the present value of the cost stream for a project
- Should be greater than ___ to be acceptable
Net Present Value (NPV), zero
Net Present Value formula
NPV = (B-C) / (1+r)^t
The ratio of the present value of the project (financial or economic) benefits stream to the present value of the project (financial or economic) costs stream, each discounted at the appropriately defined discount rate
Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR)
Benefit-Cost Ratio formula
BCR = (NPV of benefits) / (NPV of costs)
- This appraisal technique is primarily used in social projects and programs, and sometimes in infrastructure projects, when quantifying benefits in monetary terms is difficult
- Useful in choosing from different technologies that provide the same service
Cost Effectiveness Analysis
A collection of buyers and sellers that interact, resulting in the possibility of exchange
Market
- Reflects demand for a product for final consumption purposes
- Examples of such products are basic food commodities, housing, clothing, health care and basic educational services
Consumer demand / final demand
- The demand for a product used as an input in the production of other goods and services
- Examples are the demand for lumber for furniture-making, for oils and fuels for industrial processes, and for research, training and skills for various productive applications
Producer demand / intermediate demand
- Special case of consumer demand where services have no market price, where needs are virtually unlimited, and where instead of consumer incomes, the limiting factor is government’s ability to pay
Demand for social services
The movement of a variable that tends to oscillate above and below its secular trend line for a period longer than one year, sometimes even longer than twenty years
Cyclical fluctuation
Behavior of the variable that indicates a pattern within a period of one year
Seasonal variation
Used to understand which among the independent variables are related to the dependent variable, and to explore the forms of these relationships
Regression
The degree to which two variables are systematically associated with each other
Correlation
The statement of a project’s cash inflow and outflow year by year throughout its expected life
Financial cash flow statement
The benefit forgone by not putting the asset to its best alternative use
Opportunity cost
The highest financial price it could be sold for
Financial opportunity cost
Current assets net of its current liabilities
Working capital
An accounting cost which reflects the interest foregone because funds are tied up in the construction of the project
Interest during construction (IDC)
Represents the value of additional resources required beyond the original cost to complete the project
Physical contingency
The maximum amount consumers are prepared to pay for a good or service
Willingness to pay
The economic price of foreign currency
Shadow exchange rate
- The cost of a company’s funds (both debt and equity), or, from an investor’s point of view “the required rate of return on a portfolio company’s existing securities”
- It is used to evaluate new projects of a company
Economic cost of capital (ECC)
Percentage difference between the Shadow Exchange Rate and the Official Exchange Rate
Foreign Exchange Premium
A good or service is considered ___ when an increase in demand (supply) by a project does not affect the amount demanded (supplied) by domestic consumers (producers)
Tradable goods and services
A commodity or service is ___ from a country’s point of view if its domestic price lies above its FOB export price or below its CIF import price
Non-tradable good
- A means of testing how sensitive a project’s outcomes (cashflows, NPV or IRR) are to changes in one parameter value at a time
- “What-if” analysis
Sensitivity analysis
This analysis allows a number of variables to be altered in a consistent manner at the same time
Scenario analysis