L4.1 infectious disease modelling Flashcards
when do we used decision trees
when events only happen once
when do we use Markov’s model
when events are repeated multiple times
what are externalities
cost or benefit caused by a producer that is not finically incurred or received by that produce
what happens if we ignore externalities?
incorrect decisions or wrong data
what is herd immunity
direct protection experienced by unvaccinated individuals resulting from the presence of immune individuals in a population
what is the force of interaction
the rate at which susceptible individuals become infected per unit per time
types of modelling method
deterministic and stochastic
what are deterministic models
types of models that describe what happens on average in a population
what are stochastic models
allows the number of individuals who move through compartments to vary through chance
how do we work out the incidence of infection
multiplying the force of infraction by the number of susceptible people
what is the basic reproduction number RO
average number of secondary infectious persons resulting from one infectious person following introduction into a totally susceptible population
what is the net reproduction number Rn
number of secondary infectious persons resulting from one infectious person in each population
what does RO=1 mean
the incidence in the population remains statistic
what does R0=>1
the incidence of disease in the population will increase
what does R0=<1
the incidence of disease in the population will decrease
