Hoofdstuk 7

Question 1

expected utility (EU) theory

Answer 1

maintains that inferential behavior can be conceptualized as choices among alternatives, each with a probability of occurrence and a designated value. According to the model, people assess available alternatives for their likelihood and the worth of the outcomes that they promise (i.e., probability and value), calculate the utility of each outcome (the product of the probability of each outcome and its value), and choose the option that maximizes utility.

Question 2

satisficer

Answer 2

make good-enough, adequate inferences and decisions.

Question 3

optimizer

Answer 3

make the choice that maximizes expected utility (see expected utility (EU) theory), reaching the best possible inferences and decisions.

Question 4

heuristics

Answer 4

are one kind of shortcut people use for judgments under uncertainty, generally used for strategies identified by Kahneman and Tversky, mostly relying on ease of bringing instances to mind, to reduce complex problem solving to simpler judgmental operations and meet the pressing demands of the environment.

Question 5

availability heuristic

Answer 5

evaluates the likelihood of an event based on how quickly instances or associations come to mind.

Question 6

simulation heuristic

Answer 6

makes inferences by constructing hypothetical scenarios to estimate outcomes, running events through in the mind chronologically to assess likely consequences.

Question 7

Counterfactual reasoning

Answer 7

is the mental simulation of how events might otherwise have occurred.

Question 8

Fantasy

Answer 8

envisions the future as filled with bountiful (unrealistic) possibilities (wishful thinking).

Question 9

mental addition

Answer 9

describes simulations that increase the perceived likelihood of a potential outcome, easier than mental subtraction.

Question 10

mental subtraction

Answer 10

describes simulations that reduce the perceived likelihood of a potential consequence.

Question 11

anchor

Answer 11

describes, when judging under uncertainty, people reducing ambiguity by using an initial reference point, and adjusting it to reach a final conclusion.

Question 12

framing

Answer 12

how a decision’s background context of the choice is described, and in prospect theory, often contrasting gain versus loss.

Question 13

frame

Answer 13

within the perceptual symbol systems (PSS) simulator, integrates across experiences within a category, to create the simulations of the experience of a particular example on a particular occasion.

Question 14

risk aversion

Answer 14

strategies avoid uncertainty when dealing with possible gains (e.g., money added or lives saved).

Question 15

risk seeking

Answer 15

strategies approach uncertainty when dealing with possible losses (e.g., money subtracted or lives lost).

Question 16

prospect theory

Answer 16

the decision processes involved when people compare options, focusing on frame of reference and subjective value function

Describes how psychological (subjective) values and probabilities differ from objective values and probabilities

Question 17

reference point (also termed frame of reference)

Answer 17

is the internal standard with which people compare the objective value of an option so as to classify the option as positive (i.e., better than the reference point) or as negative (i.e., worse than the reference point); objectively identical options can be framed positively or negatively, such that an option perceived as a gain in one frame can be perceived as a loss in another frame.

Question 18

frames of reference

Answer 18

or frame in judgment and decision making, is the way the problem is
described (see reference point).

the internal standard with which people compare the objective value of an option so as to classify the option as positive (i.e., better than the reference point) or as negative (i.e., worse than the reference point); objectively identical options can be framed positively or negatively, such that an option perceived as a gain in one frame canbe perceived as a loss in another frame.

Question 19

subjective value function

Answer 19

plots perceived value against objective outcomes; the curve is S-shaped – concave for gains (reflecting risk aversion) and convex for losses (reflecting risk seeking), as well as steeper for losses than for gains (reflecting loss aversion).

Question 20

Bayes’ theorem

Answer 20

draws on the prior overall odds (base rates) and a focal event’s likelihood to estimate probabilities of the event, given the prior odds.

Question 21

base-rate information

Answer 21

are population characteristics (averages, prior probabilities, or proportions), or other broad-based general prior data, normatively but not descriptively used to estimate particular instances.

Question 22

conjunction fallacy

Answer 22

overestimates the likelihood that any two or more events will co-occur, compared to their isolated likelihood; because their joint probability is the product of their probabilities of occurring alone, their joint probability cannot exceed the probability of the least probable event.

Question 23

Judgments of covariation

Answer 23

judgments estimate how strongly two events are related.

Question 24

illusory correlation

Answer 24

expects a relationship between two variables when none actually exists; people often overestimate their correlation or impose a relationship because of associative meaning or paired distinctiveness.

Question 25

associative meaning

Answer 25

perceives two items as belonging together because they fit prior expectations (e.g., bacon–eggs).

Question 26

paired distinctiveness

Answer 26

perceives two things as belonging together because they share some unusual feature.

Question 27

discounted utility (DU) model

Answer 27

adds to the expected utility (EU) theory that the utility of any given choice diminishes as consequences are spread over time, called the discount rate.

Question 28

Discount rate

Answer 28

describes the diminishing utility of an outcome when extended over
time.

Question 29

empathy gap

Answer 29

our tendency to underestimate the influence of varying mental states on our own behavior and make decisions that only satisfy our current emotion, feeling, or state of being.

Question 30

temporal construal theory

Answer 30

a model stating that people rely on largely abstract representations (high-level construals) of future situations when making decisions for the distant future but on more concrete representations (low-level construals) when making decisions for the near future.

Question 31

Twenty-twenty hindsight

Answer 31

indicates the difficulty of ignoring knowledge of an actual outcome to generate unbiased inferences about what could or should have happened (see hindsight bias).

Question 32

hindsight bias

Answer 32

indicates the difficulty of ignoring knowledge of an actual outcome to generate unbiased inferences about what could or should have happened