Biases Flashcards
Individuals are biased in their assessments of the frequency of events based on how their __________ structures affect the search process
memory
Individuals frequently fail to appreciate the role of sample __________ in assessing the reliability of sample information.
Size
Individuals exhibit a bias toward ___________ the probability of conjunctive events and __________ the probability of disjunctive events.
overestimating, understating
Decision makers will forego the _________ solution in favor of the one that is acceptable or reasonable.
best
Individuals judge events that are more easily __________ from memory, based on vividness or most recently, to be more numerous than events of equal frequency whose instances are less easily ______________
Recalled, recalled
Individuals tend to __________ the probability of two events co-occuring based on the number of similar associations that are easily recalled, whether from experience or social influence.
overestimate
Decision makers search until they find a solution that meets a certain level of performance - they _________
satisfice
individuals tend to ignore the fact that extreme events tend to regress to the _________ on subsequent trials.
Mean
Individuals tend to __________ base rates in assessing the likelihood of events when any other descriptive information is provided - even if it is irrelevant
ignore
Individuals tend to ________ supportive information confirming what they think is true and _________ the search for opposing evidence.
Seek, neglect
Individuals falsely judge that _________ are more probable than a more global set of occurrences of which the _________ is a subset
conjunctions, conjunciton
Individuals make estimates for values based upon an initial value and typically make __________ adjustments from that anchor when establishing a final value.
Insufficient
After finding out whether or not an event occurred, individuals tend to ___________ the degree to which they would have predicted the correct outcome. furthermore individuals fail to __________ information they possess that others do not when predicting other’s behavior.
overestimate, ignore
Individuals expect that a sequence of data generated by a random process will look “random” even when the sequence is too __________ for those expectations to be statistically valid.
short
Individuals tend to be __________ of the infallibility of their judgement when answering moderately to extremely difficult questions.
overconfident
