Thinking in Bets

Question 1

Are smart people good at avoiding confirmation bias?

Answer 1

No. Studies show the more mathematical aptitude one has, the better one is at using logic to confirm previously had beliefs.

Question 2

What triggers rational evaluation of the validity of a decision or statement?

Answer 2

“Wanna bet”? Betting with money on the line triggers a different thought process.

Question 3

What are the benefits of thinking in probabilities, and stating probabilities when weighing different decisions?

Answer 3

1) More accurate
2) Invites collaboration from others
3) Invites more confidence from others as opposed to speaking in absolutes

Question 4

What is it important to differentiate between when looking at outcomes?

Answer 4

Skill vs. luck.

An accurate determination on how much of an outcome depended on skill vs. luck, and then an assessment of the skill leads to optimal future decision making.

Question 5

What is one way to start to get in good habits using others when it comes to decision making?

Answer 5

Get involved with groups with the following characteristics;

1) views unknown
2) reasonably well informed
3) legitimate reason for inquiring into judgements/choices
4) interested in accuracy