Regionalism and the European Union III Flashcards
Backlash against the EU - The Brexit vote of 2016
The United Kingdom voted to leave the EU, driven by concerns over sovereignty, immigration, and EU regulations. The result marked a significant challenge to the EU’s unity and fueled eurosceptic movements across Europe.
Backlash against the EU - The success of Marine Le Pen at the 2022 French Election
Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, made significant gains, reflecting public discontent with EU immigration policies, economic stagnation, and national identity issues.
Backlash against the EU - The rise of AfD in Germany
The AfD emerged as a strong political force, capitalizing on anti-immigration sentiments, Euroscepticism, and dissatisfaction with Germany’s role in the EU, challenging the EU’s values of openness and unity.
Backlash against the EU - The success of Viktor Orban in Hungary
Orbán’s right-wing government has promoted national sovereignty, restricted immigration, and criticized EU policies, positioning Hungary as a challenger to EU norms and values.
Backlash against the EU - The rise of the Five Star Movement in Italy
The movement gained popularity by opposing austerity measures, criticizing EU economic policies, and advocating for direct democracy, reflecting frustration with the EU’s handling of economic crises and governance.
Britain and the European Union agree on the hardest Brexit (The Economist, December 27th 2020)
For the level playing field, the two sides have agreed that an independent arbitrator should decide whether future regulatory divergence is sufficiently harmful to permit retaliation through tariffs. On fish, the EU will retain access for just over five years, though with its quota cut by 25%; after that, future arrangements will require negotiation. And there will be a system for settling disputes that does not include a role for the European Court of Justice except for interpreting EU law.
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The Issue of Enlargement
- ‘Christian Club’ - instead of shared values, erecting immigration barriers and buffer zones, privileged partnership, not full membership
- Still scores low in human rights and freedom of speech polls
- Turkey is geopolitically important, forging new alliances with neighbours in the Middle East
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Arguments in favour of European Integration: In fostering cosmopolitanism/internationalism it encourages European peoples to escape from narrow and insular nationalism.
- Prevents war and conflict in Europe, created in the aftermath of war, maintained peace in Europe for 70 years
- Economic integration, cultural exchange, protect human rights and address global challenges - ‘Widening’, ‘Zones of Peace’, shared values - Erasmus, students can study abroad
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Arguments in favour of European Integration: Economic, monetary and political union creates a level of interdependence amongst states that makes war or major conflict in Europe unthinkable.
- Free movement of goods, services, capital and people, encouraging cooperation, reducing economic barriers
- Promotes stability, reduces liklihood of conflict, fosters prosperity through shared markets and creates strong incentives for cooperation
- Single market - boosts GDP by 2.8% annually, mutual stakes in peace, world gross production - 2000 - 41tr, 2014 - 77tr, China and US - 690B in 2022 in goods
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Arguments in favour of European Integration: The establishment of a continent-wide market underpins prosperity and growth and gives Europe security within the global economy.
- Removes trade barriers , standardising regulations, enhances effeciency, attracts investment and fosters economic integration
- Strengthens Europe’s position in the global economy and providing security through collective econ power, reduces isolation or vulnerability
- 2020 - EU attracted 144B in FDI, COVID-19 pandemic - EU gave coordinated recovery position - 750B recovery fund
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Arguments in favour of European Integration: Pooling’ sovereignty is the only way in which European states can exercise major and independent influence on the world stage. Federalism actually saves autonomy in a globalised world.
- Especially in an unstable multipolar world, allows Europe-led states to exercise greater collective influence on the world stage - can shape direction of global politics - Ukraine, EU development funding
- Smaller and medium sized states can have a voice in gg whilst maintaining key aspects of their sov in a unified framework
- EU is the largest trading bloc in the world, accounting for around 16% of global trade in goods and services - through pooled sov can negotiate trade agreements on behalf of 27 member states, like the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement
- Common Foreign and Security Policy - one voice on critical global issues - like sanctions on Russia, Iranian nuclear deal
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Arguments against European Integration: The erosion of national sovereignty means that decision-making fails to take account of distinctive national needs and interests.
- Its decision making process often requires member states to align with collective policy and regulations set up by EU institutions, which can override national priorities in areas like immigration or agriculture
- Can foster discontent and weaken national democratic accountability - ‘deepening’
- General Data Protection Regulation - requires all EU member states to adopt common standards for data protection, 2015 - Hungary and Poland resisted EU relocation quoteas, ECJ overruled national laws - ruled UK ban on tax breaks for same sex couples violated EU law in 2018
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Arguments against European Integration: Historically embedded national identities are being weakened, sometimes provoking hostility and a nationalist backlash.
- Promoting a common European identity, shared values and free movements can blur the lines between national culture - undermined by external influence and integration
- Can lead to social division, political instability and rise of populist movemet - pooled sov is good, but you can also LOSE sov - unelected supranational can lead to democratic deficit
- Tapping into EU sentiments in 2019 - populist parties like France’s National Rally, Poland’s Law and Justice Party have gained significant support, 2018 Eurobarameter policy found that 54% of Italians and 52% of Hungarians have a negative view of the EU - many citing concerns about losing national identity and growing influence on Brussels
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Arguments against European Integration: National, language and cultural differences make it impossible for EU bodies to establish genuine political allegiances.
- Diverse mix of national languages, cultures and political allegiances - rragmented perspectives, harder for political consensus
- Undermined EU ability to act decisively and effectively on key issues - political gridlock and hampers development of a unified European identity
- Eurozone crisis - disagreements over financial support packages, austerity bailouts, prolonged negotiations and delay - lack of political cohesion, 24 official languages can complicate
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Arguments against European Integration: The democratic deficit can never be overcome because of the distance between EU institutions and European populations. The EU is simply undemocratic in its nature.
- Decision making process is often seen as distant and opaque with key institutions like the European Commission and the European Central Bank not directly elected by the public - difficult to represent diverse and preferences of the population
- Undermines public trust in EU institutions, weakens democratic legitimacy and fuels apathy and disillusionment and rise of eurospectic movements that challenge the EU’s authority and unity
- Turnout in European Parliament elections is low - 50-60% in recent decades, 2019 - 42% Europeans expressed confidence in the EU
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The EU gives itself a weapon to battle against rule-of-law violations – But will it use it?
- Under the German proposal, the text of the rule-of-law regulation remains untouched. That enables the European Commission to block disbursements of EU money, including from the recovery fund, if it suspects recipient governments of corruption or other foul play, so long as a qualified majority of eu governments agree. That could pose a threat to the system of authoritarian cronyism Mr Orban has assembled on the back of eu funds amounting to around 3% of annual GDP. Poland’s system is cleaner but, notes Piotr Buras at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Warsaw, the government’s court-stacking could fall foul of the regulation’s references to judicial independence, if the commission thinks it interferes with the management of EU funds.
- The biggest concession to the hold-outs was an agreement that no action would be taken under the mechanism until the EU’s top court had ruled on its legality, a process that could take up to two years (but which is likely to be accelerated)
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Why has the EU stripped Hungary of €1 billion? The latest confrontation explained
- The European Commission has stripped €1.04 billion in aid from Hungary in the latest phase of an ongoing political struggle with its errant member state.
- The amount of money lost is a blow for Hungary, but the decision also has wider economic and geopolitical implications. Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán has consistently flouted EU standards and democratic principles. The question now is whether he has run out of options.
- The European Union mobilises and redistributes a vast amount of collective funding to its poorer countries and regions. Since the 1970s, a complex set of funding instruments has emerged under the banner of “cohesion policy”.
- For the 2021-27 budgetary period, the EU has allocated €392 billion for cohesion policy, supplemented by €750 billion in grants and cheap loans from the Next Generation EU programme. These funds can be used for the development of infrastructure, environmental protection and support for the private sector (in particular for the green economy).
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To what extent is the EU a federal superstate - Yes it is - supranational institutions
- European Commission has the exclusive right to initiate legislation, which is then adopted by the European Parliament and Council without needing approval from national gov
- EG Their enforcement of EU budget rules during the Eurozone crisis - took a strong stance against Greece, Italy and Spain for failing to meet the EU’s Fiscal Stability and Growth Pact - limits budget deficit to 3% of GDP and national debt to 60% of GDP
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To what extent is the EU a federal superstate - Yes it is - a shared currency in the Euro
- Involves member states ceding a degree of national sovereignty over their monetary policy to be a central authority
- European Central Bank, an independent institution, is responsible for setting and implimenting monetary policy for all eurozone countries, including decision making on interest rates which directly affect national economies
- Economic and Monetary Union, enforces fiscal rules, limiting national autonomy
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To what extent is the EU a federal superstate - Yes it is - a trend towards greater integration, most notably QMV
- Treaty of Nice
- Treaty of Lisbon
- Reformed the voting system to make it easier for the EU to take decisions in areas such as justice and home affairs, environmental policy and trade
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To what extent is the EU a federal superstate - No it isn’t - intergovernmental institutions
- European Council, composed of heads of state or gov from each member state, plays a key role in shaping EU policy - requring unanimous agreement
- Council of Ministers makes decisionon a wide range of issues - trade, foreign policy and justice - voting and cooperation
- Eu stance of 2014 Ukraine crisis - sanctions of Russia, EU common foreign and security policy
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To what extent is the EU a federal superstate - No it isn’t - opt outs wielded by member states
- Denmark 1992, Sweden 2003, UK 2019
- States retain the right to make critical decisions about their economic sov, even within the broader framework of EU membership
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To what extent is the EU a federal superstate - No it isn’t - backlash against the EU
- Brexit
- Populism movements
- Growing economic criticism - Eurozone crisis and migration crisis where some member states - particularly Eastern Europ, have pushed back against EU for imposed austerity measures or refugee resettlement quotas
EU not being federalist
The EU did not merge to become federalist, it was established to set up an agreemtn between coal and steel - now meets specific econ, pol and security functions
EU neofunctionalism
Suggests that the functionalist view is too narrow - functions have split over, where original goods have transformed into political roles - including a long term aim
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Is the EU a superpower - YES - economic power
- Has significantly increased its econ power by unifying its currency and establishing the largest free-trade area and lucrative single market in the world
- Largest trading bloc in the world - 3rd largest econ, 1/6 of global trade, 2023 - GDP - 17tr, euro 2nd largest traded currency
Eurozone - 25% of global trading
2022 - EU companies amount for 40$ of FDI
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Is the EU a superpower - NO - economies in EU too diverse to operate successfully
- The EU has not been immune to fluctuating global markets and was a major vcitm of the global financial crisis like Eurozone
- Significant disparity in GDP in membr states - Luxembourg - 125K, Bulgaria - 9K
- Uneven employment rates - Spain and Greece - 12-13%, Netherlands, 4%
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Is the EU a superpower - YES - soft power and diplomacy appeal
- Significant influence in other statesm with many countries keen to join
- EG World’s largest donor of official development assistance - contributing more than 7B annually, Erasmus+ facilitates academic exchange between EU and non-EU countries - by 2021, over 10M students and ‘Creative Europe’
Paris Climate Change Agreement and over 40 free trade agreements
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Is the EU a superpower - NO - the impact of Brexit and the backlash against the EU as an entity
- UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement - over 50% drop in UK exports
- Rise of Euroskepticism - the French National Rally, the Italian League
- 2019 Eurobarameter survey found that 59% of EU citizens were concerned about the EU’s future
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Is the EU a superpower - YES - structural power that the EU wields through its membership of various institutions
- The EU has been very influential in global institutions and giving a clear figurehead - Donald Tisk
- EG EU has permanent observer status in UNGA, 2020 - EU has combined over 1.5B to UN - led humanitarian programs
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Is the EU a superpower - NO - member states have different interests and priorities
- Lacks cohesion and central authority, does not have a clear foreign policy, hampers its structural power within global organisations - ‘leaders’ act more as chairspersons or managers
- EG 2020 EU budget negotiations - member states like Netherlands and Sweden advocated for stricter budget controls and rebate mechanisms, whilst Spain and Italy - southern European countries, prioritised increased financial support - leading to prolonged negotiations and compromise
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Is the EU a superpower - YES - military strength
- One of the world’s largest military forces - 1.4M active personnel and a defense budget exceeding 200B in 2022
- Growing cooperation is exemplified by initaives like Permanent Structured Cooperation and European Defense Fund - aim to embrace join military capabilities and strategic autonomy
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Is the EU a superpower - NO - the reality of military situations - ‘military worm’
- The EU has not standing army and has been as US’s puppet, given its reliuance on NATO for defense
- NATO members account for over 90% of EU military spending
- Remains undermilitised - preference for diplomatic and civilian crisis management over active military engagement - 2008 - EU for Althea mission in Bosnia
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Evaluate the view that regional organisations have eroded state sov - YES - supranational decision making
- AU - made Pan-African Parliament to harmonise poliicy and AU African Peer Review Mechanism
- Carribean Community - quasi-legislative body that sets regional standards - deepening
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Evaluate the view that regional organisations have eroded state sov - YES - economic policy constraints
- ASEAN Free Trade Area and ASEAN Economic community require member states to standardise trade regulations and reduce tariffs
- 2022 - intra-ASEAN trade represented 24% of region’s total trade
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Evaluate the view that regional organisations have eroded state sov - YES - collective security decisions
- Peacekeeping missions and sanctions states must comply with
- AU - 20K peacekeepers in conflict area like Somalia
- Security regionalism is NON-EXISTENTIAL - states must comply
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Evaluate the view that regional organisations have eroded state sov - NO - enhances global influence on climate policy or international diplomacy
- Arab League actively against Western intervention and has been involved in international conferences like COP - Conference of Parties
- Rejected Cameron’s votes for prisoners
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Evaluate the view that regional organisations have eroded state sov - NO - economic sov, strengthened by regional trade blocs
- Increase market access and negotiation power in global trade
- ASEAN’s GDP reached 3.6tr in 2022 - 5th largest economy globally
- Mercosur - 2.4tr in 2022
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Evaluate the view that regional organisations have eroded state sov - NO - collective security without loss of control
- Gulf Cooperation Council enhances member state security through collective defense without undermining national consensus
- ASEAN regional forum acts on consensus - security mechanism
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Evaluate the view that countries are more likely to succeed and hold signficant power as sov states rather than as members of regional organisations - sovereign states - can control own law and policies
- Can enforce legislation much faster when not part of the EU
- The UK gained full control over immigration after leaving the EU
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Evaluate the view that countries are more likely to succeed and hold signficant power as sov states rather than as members of regional organisations - sovereign states can unite and have pol stab
- Countries will face less contentions and can make decisions in interest of their people
- EU countries like Hungary and Poland face divisions
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Evaluate the view that countries are more likely to succeed and hold signficant power as sov states rather than as members of regional organisations - sovereign states have econ. independence
- Countries set their own trade policies rather than following suit of organisations
- US and China engage in direct trade
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Evaluate the view that countries are more likely to succeed and hold signficant power as sov states rather than as members of regional organisations - regional organisations - global rule setting power
- Regional blocs can enforce laws and regulations that have global impact
- EU Data and Privacy Law changes policy for Google
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Evaluate the view that countries are more likely to succeed and hold signficant power as sov states rather than as members of regional organisations - regional organisations - greater diplomatic influence
- Speaks for multiple nations gives more weight
- ASIS and ASEAN can shape policies whilst smaller nations may be ignored
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Evaluate the view that countries are more likely to succeed and hold signficant power as sov states rather than as members of regional organisations - regional organisations - econ protection
- By joining, countries are able to protect their countries from foreign economic competition
- EU tariffs - cars - 10%, textiles - 12-40%
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Evaluate the extent to which regional bodies are effectively able to challenge individual states for influence in global politics - effectively able to challenge states on influence - econ power
- The EU has significant economic power enabling it to have major power over superpowers like US and China
- The EU in retaliation to Trump’s seel and aluminium tariff of 25% and 50% tariff on whiskey
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Evaluate the extent to which regional bodies are effectively able to challenge individual states for influence in global politics -effectively able to challenge states on influence - the rest of the arguments
- The AU has inervened in conflicts like peacekeeping in Somalia
- ASEAN has successfully coordnated econ. and security agreements that challenge the influence of major states - China in the South China Sea
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Evaluate the extent to which regional bodies are effectively able to challenge individual states for influence in global politics - not as influential as individual states
- The EU struggles internally - Brexit, limits the bloc’s effectiveness of acting as a singular global power - Poland v Hungary migration crisis
- The AU and ASEAN struggle to enforce agreements or sanctions due to lack of legal authority over sov states
- Most regional blocs lack a unified military force so they’re not comparable to states like Russia or China - NATO influenced by US
