Power and Developments IIII Flashcards
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Is there multipolarity in today’s system? - YES
- Economic and cultural dominance - US economy dominance challenged by emerging powers, EU most lucrative single energy market in the world, China is the world’s greatest neocolonial power
- Military and cyber-tech dominance - China is investing heavily in the long range bombers and nuclear submarines, President Obama unwilling to provide either a diplmatic or military lead during Arab uprising and Syrian Civil War
Is there multipolarity in today’s system? - NO
Most likely have 5-6 centres of power which are not grouped into tight alliances - each state therefore follows its own percieved best interests so distribution of power continually shifts
Realist viewpoint of multipolarity
- Argues that multipolarity represents the most unstable distribution of power globally, because the system is more fluid than bipolarity or unipolarity since there is constantly shifting balance of power as a number of relatively evenly matched states seek to maximise their influence at the expense of others
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Liberal viewpoint of multipolarity
- More optimistic about the consequences of multipolarity for global peace and stability - in the absence of a global hegemon or a superpower rivalry, states are more likely to coop in multilateral organs of GG
- Existence of more evenly matched states therefore provide greater opportunities for coop than either bipolarity and unipolarity
- Could be argued the relative security of multipolar would depend on whether the leading players are prepared to work through the international agencies of gov - liberals therefore argue that nation-states must set aside egoism and coop
Democratic states
They have elected leaders, frequent, fair elections with many parties contesting them - citizens enjoy rights such as freedom of speech and rule of law is maintained. There is a seperation of powers between the three branches of government
EG USA, UK
Semi-democratic states
Possesses democratic characteristics but also authoritarian tendencies when you look more closely. Rule of law is not fully applied allowing government to put its own interests before those of its citizens and election fraud exists - majoritarian democracies
EG Russia, Georgia
Non-democratic states
Lacks any democratic legitimacy, no popular mandate, authoritarian and therefore seek electoral endorsement from the citizens
EG Middle Eastern monarchies
Authoritarian states
Places power with one individual or one ruling party - rule in an autocratic fashion and political opposition is not tolerated, control of media and human rights are not respected. Sometimes called totalitarian states.
EG Korea, China
Failed state
A failed state is a political body that has disintegrated to a point where the sovereign government no longer functions properly
EG Somalia, Yemen, Syria
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Democratic republic of Congo
- 450 ethnic groups into 1 nation, resulted in 10M deaths as resource curse began to be stripped
- 70% live below poverty line
- Divided political opposition and current president in power past the constitution’s allowance
Rogue state
A term applied by international theorists to states they consider threatening to the world’s peace - this means to be seen to meet certain criteria - such as being ruled by authoritarian or totalitarian governments that severly restrict human rights, sponsoring terrorism and seeking to proliferate weapons of mass destruction
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Republic of Korea
- Split - North Korea and US occupied South Korea
- Kim Jong Un - arsenal - key feature - readiness to both test poses a threat to other nations and international stability - does not cooperate
- USA has a tense relationship with them - worse human rights records, failure to uphold agreements - UN has put a number of sanctions, extreme totalitarianism regime - deliberately isolated from rest of the world and government pursues a deeply isolationist foreign policy
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Characteristics of New Wars - effect of failed states on global world view
- Increasing number of failed states would lead to new wars in which outside powers would be forced to intervene to stop failed states becoming a magnet for violent extremism
- Fighting is asymmetrical since regular forces will be likely to have superior military equipment
- Descent to anarchy gradual - no clear begun to end and defined rural army gov to surrender
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Examples of modern day insurgencies - effect of failed states on global world view
- Ukraine is fighting like an Old War and Russia is fighting like a New War
- US and UK invaded Iraq 2003
- Spanish partisans against French Occupation during the Penninsula War
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Why are insurgencies difficult to defeat - effect of failed states on global world view
When irregular forces often linked to criminal gangs and terrorists will seek to take action of what is left of the state
- Civilian casualities high - terror tactics used and regular troops will find it hard to distinguish between insurgents and civilians
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Arab Spring
The Arab Spring began in Tunisia in 2010, when the population protested against authoritarian regime - regime change and democratic elections in Tunisia prompted a wave of protests calling for greater democracies in countries across the Arab World - including Egypt, Iraq, Libya and Yemen
Mixed results - they swept asdide their authoritarian leaders only in some cases to replace them with another authoritarian regime
Is democracy the best form of government - YES
Political Equality: Democracy ensures political equality by allowing every citizen to have a vote, thus fostering participation in governance. This leads to more inclusive representation. Research shows that countries with democratic systems generally provide more opportunities for marginalized groups (e.g., women, minorities) to influence policy (e.g., gender quotas in politics in countries like Rwanda and Sweden).
Protection of Rights: Democracies are typically better at protecting individual rights and freedoms due to checks and balances. For instance, democracies like the U.S. and many European nations have strong legal frameworks (e.g., the Bill of Rights) that protect freedom of speech, assembly, and religion. Studies consistently show that democracies are less likely to infringe on human rights compared to autocracies.
Peaceful Transitions of Power: One of the strengths of democracy is the ability for peaceful transitions of power through elections. This avoids violent coups or civil unrest, as seen in many stable democracies (e.g., the peaceful handover of leadership in the U.S. after elections). According to research from political scientists, countries with democratic systems are less likely to experience civil wars or long-term political instability.
Accountability and Transparency: Elected officials in democracies are held accountable by the electorate, which reduces corruption. Transparency mechanisms (e.g., freedom of the press and independent judiciary) are key in democratic nations. Countries like Denmark and New Zealand, often ranked as some of the least corrupt, are strong examples of democratic accountability at work.
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Authoritarianism - Russia stats
- Russia has x2 as many political prisoners than at the end of the Soviet era
- 1/3 budget spent on military and security
- Securocrats assert traditional values are being corrupted by liberal and licentuos West and only they can defend them
- Russia shot down a passager plane in Belarus and hijacked to arrest a local dissident
- Meddles in Western election, peddles anti-vaccine propoganda and fights proxy wars in Africa and Middle East
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To what extent is China a superpower? stats
- GDP - 2015 - 11tr from 300B - 2nd largest economy
- Accounts for 18% of the world’s GDP from 2%
- 2014 life expectancy doubled from 36 to 76
- 2016 - overtook highway extensive system by 50%
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To what extent is China a superpower - econ growth
- Generally accepted that China will overtake USA’s GDP in 2028 due to COVID, growing 5.7% annually until 2025, and 4.5% annually from 2026-2030
- 2010 - Chinese economy 90x greater than in 1978
- Population - 1.35B - mass reserves of cheap labour and state run capitalist model weathered the global financial crisis better than the westerners
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To what extent is China a superpower - strong sphere of influence
- Most successful neocolonial power in the world and biggest trading partner to Africa
- In defiance of Monroe Doctrine - 2000-2013 - trade increased x22 in 3 years and Xi-Jinping has made 3 visits to develop economic and diplomatic ties
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To what extent is China a superpower - investments
- Own Birmingham Football Club, Pizza Express and House of Fraser
- Financing Nicaragua Canal - 50B to challenge Panama Canal
- Member of WTO and AIIB
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To what extent is China a superpower - military influence
- 2016 - spent 131B on defence
- 2nd largest army - 2B
- Attemping to militarise reefs in South China Sea - 2014 - deployed Jin-class ballistic missiles submarine - each is armed with 12JL-2 nuclear missiles
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To what extent is China a superpower - military and diplomatic efforts do not match econ. influence
- USA has 800 military bases in 70 countries and alliances across the globe - only in 2016 did China open its first overseas military bases
- Limited by communist ideology - american democratic values have a more global appeal than an authoritarian approach - zone of influence is limited
To what extent is China a superpower - does not wish to be a superpower
- Greatly viewed world affairs according to WestPhalian Principles - not seeking to impose its values on other states and jealously protecting sovereignty from outside influence - seems to have a clear world mission - could cooperate and have global influence, but unwilling to take a superpower role
Is democracy the best form of government? - NO
Slower Decision-Making: Democracies can be inefficient when it comes to decision-making, as the process requires consensus-building and the involvement of many stakeholders. In times of crisis, this can delay critical actions. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, some authoritarian countries were able to impose strict measures more swiftly than democratic nations, potentially saving lives.
Populism and Short-Term Thinking: Democracies can sometimes be vulnerable to populist leaders who promise quick solutions but undermine long-term stability. The rise of populism in countries like the U.S. and Brazil has led to polarized politics and short-term policy decisions that don’t address structural issues, such as income inequality and climate change.
Risk of Majoritarianism: In democracies, the majority often holds power, which can marginalize minority groups. For example, in the U.S., the Electoral College system sometimes results in a president being elected without winning the popular vote (e.g., 2000 and 2016), raising concerns about democratic fairness and representation.
Voter Apathy and Misinformation: Democracy requires an informed electorate, but voter apathy and misinformation can undermine its effectiveness. In countries with low voter turnout or where misinformation spreads easily, such as during the 2016 U.S. election, democracy can be distorted, leading to decisions based on falsehoods or unrepresentative viewpoints.
