Power and Developments II Flashcards
Great power definition and example
A state amongst the most powerful on the international stage - requires first rank of military power, a strong economy, global influence and have not adopted an isolationist foreign policy
EG UK, Russia
Superpower definition and example
The same criteria as a great power as well as three other - a truly global reach, a chief economic or a strategic role in their own ideological bloc and a dominant military power, especially with nuclear weapons
EG USA, China
Emerging power definition and example
These are states that are beginning to acquire great power status - they will already have a level of regional influence and will meet some of the criteria for a great power, but not all
EG Brazil
Regional power definition and example
A state that wields influence in a particular region - they can develop into emerging or great powers
EG South Africa
4
Who are the MINT countries and why are they influential
- Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey
- 2075, predicted to be a top 5 economy
- Emerging economic giants, all have geographical positions that should be and advantage as patterns of world trade change
- All good inner demographs wit lots more people eligible to work, and could match China’s estimated GDP in 2050
4
Main differences between a great power and a superpower
- Have significant regional influence (near-abroad) v global reach
- Capacity for significant military outreach v must have nuclear weapons
- Should possess a major role in IGOs v should exert dominant structural power
- Strongest economies in the world v possess a world view and willingness to endorse it and a ‘great power + great mobility of power’ - (US foreign professor W.T.R Fox in 1944)
A unipolar system definition and an example
Where a single power or ‘hegemon’ dominates the international system and lays down the rules under which it operates
EG End of Cold War where the USSR collapses and disbands - USA triumphant across the globe
A bipolar system definition and an example
Where the international system revolves around 2 powers - must be roughly equal, particularly in military capacity - realistis like this, think it leads to stability
EG During Cold War - between the 2 superpowers of USA and USSR - a number of proxy wars take place supporting one side or the other
A multipower system definition and an example
Where at least 3 ‘poles’ or actors are predominant, with similar military power, economic strength and political influence - liberalists like this, thinks it encourages cooperation
EG Start of WW2, war between a number of different countries of very close strength - Japan, Germany, USSR, USA and UK play key roles in the fighting
3
Events that show the Cold War was a time of stability
- Undermined proxy wars - Vietnam, Korea, Angolia
- Easy to order society - ‘bandwagonning’
- Hungarian uprising - Prague spring - civilisation lost, military dictatorships
2
Events that show the Cold War was a time of instability
- Mutually Assured Destruction prevented conflict - capitalism v communism - bitter ideological enemies
- Cuban Missile Crisis - the security dilemma, 1983
4
Points that an arm race leads to peace
Deterrence: The buildup of military power by states discourages aggression, as rivals fear the consequences of war.
Balance of Power: Competing states accumulate arms to maintain a balance, preventing one power from becoming dominant and thus reducing the likelihood of conflict.
Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD): In nuclear arms races, the threat of total destruction ensures that no side will risk initiating a conflict
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Stability Through Strength: Realists believe that the presence of powerful states willing to fight if necessary can maintain stability and peace.
4
Points that an arm race leads to conflict
Escalation of Tensions: The accumulation of arms heightens mistrust, increasing the risk of misunderstandings or accidents that could lead to war.
Security Dilemma: As one state increases its military capabilities, others feel threatened and respond in kind, leading to an escalating cycle of militarization and insecurity.
Resource Diversion: Military spending in arms races diverts resources away from essential areas like social welfare, education, or economic development, leading to internal instability.
Provoking Aggression: Arms races can signal to other nations that a state is preparing for war, which may provoke a preemptive strike or a shift towards more aggressive foreign policies.
4
Points that proxy wars lead to peace (realist view)
Indirect Competition: Realists believe proxy wars allow superpowers to compete for influence without direct confrontation, avoiding full-scale war and maintaining a balance of power.
Limited Scope of Conflict: Proxy wars are seen as limited in scope, preventing the escalation of a broader global conflict by localizing the violence to specific regions.
Deterrence: Proxy wars signal to adversaries that each side has the capability to strike back indirectly, deterring direct military confrontation between major powers.
Stability through Strategic Alliances: Proxy wars can create stable spheres of influence where powers assert control over particular regions through local allies, reducing direct conflicts.
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Points that proxy wars lead to conflict (liberal view)
Escalation and Prolongation of Violence: Proxy wars often exacerbate conflict by prolonging local wars, causing widespread destruction and humanitarian crises that spill over into neighboring regions.
Fostering Instability: Supporting one side in a proxy war can create instability in regions, as the balance of power is disrupted and long-term peace is undermined.
Increased Militarization: Proxy wars lead to the arming of factions or rebel groups, fueling arms races and increasing the likelihood of future conflicts even after the war ends.
Undermining Diplomacy: Proxy wars divert attention from peaceful negotiations and conflict resolution, as states focus on gaining influence through indirect violence rather than seeking diplomatic solutions.
3
Kenneth Waltz view on the Cold War
- Promoted peace - the existence of 2 evenly matched powers meant neither side was capable of eliminating each other
- Created an equilibrium no side was prepared to break - MAD encouraged both sides to realise that war was totally destructive for both sides
- Diplomatic relations improved: detente and treaties signed - Khruschev and Eisenhower accords in 1970s
3
Thucydides view on the Cold War
- Bipolarity is dangerous/destabilising - both sides will compete by enhancing their military/economic capabilities at the expense of each other
- Mutual distrust and antagonism existed - US paranoia about ‘the missile gap’ in the 1960s and security dilemma caused by CMC in 1962
- The 1980s were actually profoundly unstable - Able Archer/ South Korean Airlines Disaster
3
End of the Cold War
Gorbachov - ‘we are living in a new world’ - strong ideological positions and Marxism Soviet Union broken into republic states - 50M soldiers stood down- but splitting
1890s - powerhouse Soviet w good economy - wanted hybrid communism bu failed - people pushed for reform
Tensions rose - US won nuclear standown - SDI and Reagan isolated Russia to trade decrease - poverty increased and they had a bad military - nationalist reforms
4
How the collapse of the USSR transformed the international system
- The upsurge of people power in Eastern Europe and some parts of he former USSR proved lasting, with democratic political systems set up on western lines - EU and NATO
- Free market systems opened up and an opening up of western culture adding to the process of globalisation
- Realist bipolar view replaced with a more collaborative period - USSR under Gorbachev cooperated with USA over a series of arms agreements and after the USSR collapsed, relations between Russia and the USA were far more cooperatibve then they had been in the Cold War
- United Nations was able to resolve a number of conflicts
Arms race
A concerted military build up that occurs as two or more states acquire weapons or increase their military capability in response to each other
