Pensumoversigt Flashcards
March, 1980
How we talk and how we act
Talk vs. act
Assumptions:
1: The rigidity of organizations.
2: The heterogeneity of managers.
3: The clarity of objectives.
4: The instrumentality of action.
The problem of the clash:
- Act intelligently
- Reputation of acting intelligently
Ambiguity of preferences
Symbolic actions
Standard prescriptive theories of choice
Stingl & Geraldi, 2017
Errors, lies and misunderstandings
Reductionists
Pluralists
Contextualists
Escalation of commitment
Cost sunk bias
Gigerenzer, 2002
Reckoning with risk
Daring to know (sapere aude)
Risk literacy
Statistics
Step 1: Franklin’s Law
Step 2: Beyond Ignorance of Risks
Step 3: Communication and reasoning
- Preparednesss
- Katastrofer
- Unknown hazards
Aristoteles
Sandsynlighedsteori
March, 2006
The myth of rationality
Procedural rationality
Decision rule
Multi-criteria decision making
Myth of rationality
Alternative logics:
Human existence as identities
Human existence as construction of meaning
Human existence as exploration of ambiguity
Human existence as path dependent
Snowden and Boone, 2007
A leader’s framework for decision making
Cynefin-framework:
Simple: The domain of best practice. Known-knowns.
Complicated: The domain of experts. Known-unknowns.
Complex: The domain of emergence. Unknown-unknowns.
Chaotic: The domain of rapid response. Unknowable.
Disorder: Context not clear.
Novel thinking
Leadership across contexts
Grint, 2005
Problems, problems, problems
Context
Social construction
Types of problems:
Critical
Tame
Wicked
Types of authority:
Command
Management
Leadership
Types of power:
Hard power
Soft power
(Compliances)
Irony of leadership
Kahneman
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Errors and biases Heuristics System 1 and 2 Attention and self-control WYSIATI Flow Priming Anchoring effect Confirmation bias Framing Optimism bias
Kahneman & Klein, 2009
Conditions of intuitive expertise
Heuristics biases
Naturalistic decision making
Expert intuition
Pattern recognition
High validity environment
Feedback
Ekspert
Ikke-ekspert
Gigerenzer, 2011
Heuristic decision making
Procedural model of heuristics
Ecological rationality
Accuracy-effort trade off
Logik, statistik og heuristik
Genkendelsesheuristik
Flydende heuristik
Fast-and-frugal heuristics
Flyvbjerg, 2014
What you should know about megaprojects and why
The Iron Law of Mega Projects Mega-Project Paradox The four sublimes Break-fix model Kapitalinvesteringer
Kreiner, 2020
Conflicting notions of a project
The Hiding Hand
Projects as a leap into the designed future
Projects as a pursuit
Pseudo-imitation
Pseudo-comprehensive-program
Retrospektivt
Efter-rationalisering
Kahneman: s. 278-288 (Prospect theory)
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Expected utility theory
Prospect theory Reference point Risk averse and risk seeking Escalation of commitment Cost sunk fallacy Weighted probability function
Flyvbjerg, 2009
Delusion and deception in large infrastructure projects
Strategic misrepresentation
Optimism bias
Delusion
Deception
Inside view:
Planning fallacy
Anchoring and adjustment
Accountability and transparency
Reference forecasting
TED Talk
Tail Sharot on optimism
Optimism
- Interpretation matters
- Anticipation makes us happy
- Optimism change reality
March, 1991
How decisions happen in organizations
Logic of consequence
Consequential action
Logic of appropriateness
Decisions as artefacts
Logic of consequence: Consequential action
Uncertainty and ambiguity
Risk taking: Fem mekanismer
Conflict among rational actors: Theory of choice
Fem mekanismer:
Risk taking and danger
Risk taking and the assimilation of ressources
- Reconsidering the centrality of choice.
- Networks.
- Temporal orders.
- Symbols and the construction of meaning.
Cohen, March & Olsen, 1972
A garbage can model of organizational choice
Organized anarchies:
Problematic preferences
Ambiguous success
Fluid participation
Garbage can model
Temporal logic
Access structure
Attention and energy
Types of decisions:
Resolution
Oversight
Flight/drift
Organizational slack
Net energy load
Kreiner, 2012
Organizational decision mechanisms in an architectural competition
Arkitektkonkurrencer
Bias
Legitimacy
1) A first choice enables the choosing process
2) Expert intuition drove the choice
3) Yet, the ‘official’ story was still one of fair competition
Weick, 1993
The collapse of sensemaking in organizations
Cosmology episode
Sensemaking
Strategic rationality
Contextual rationality
Mann Gulch-skovbrænden
Four sources of resilience: Improvisation and Bricolage Virtual Role Systems Attitude of Wisdom Respectful interaction
Musca et al., 2014
Drop your boat
Loss of meaning
Frame
Discursive practices:
Wording and re-wording the unexpected
Reframing
Focusing attention
Reaffirming team cohesiveness.
March & zur Shapira, 1987
Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking
Assumptions about risk taking Risk preference Risk propensity Organizational context Paradox of risk taking and succes [NTS: ikke et begreb] Cynical view Foolish gambling Risk taking Insensitivity to probability
March, 1988
Technology of foolishness
Technology of foolishness Technology of reason Preferences Actions and goals Co-dependent Playfulness Sensible foolishness Procedural rationality
McGrath, 2011
Failing by design
Failing intelligently
Intelligent failures
Seven principles
Principle 1: Decide what success and failure would look like before you launch an initiative.
Principle 4: Contain the downside risk—fail cheaply.
Principle 5: Limit uncertainty.
Principle 6: Build a culture that celebrates intelligent failure.
Sunstein, 2014
Nudging
Nudge
Liberty-preserving approach
- Free choice (autonomy)
- Transparency
- Evidence and testing
Libertarian paternalism
Soft paternalism
10 vigtigste nudges:
Default rules
Simplification
Use of social norms
Institutionalizing nudges
