Flyvbjerg, What you should know about megaprojects and why, 2014

Question 1

Flyvbjerg message:

Answer 1

Realistic estimations are possible and advisable and enables accountability and predictability. Against hiding hand.

Question 2

The Iron Law of Mega Projects.

What type of problem is it?

Answer 2

Over budget, over time, over and over again.

It is a societal problem because a lot of money is at play.

Figure 1: Shows a handful of megaprojects measured against US debt to China.

Question 3

Mega-Project Paradox:

Answer 3

Mega projects are used more and more often yet have low succes rate.

Question 4

The political reasons for why we keep having megaprojects:

Answer 4

The four sublimes:

Technological.

Political.

Economic.

Aesthetic.

Question 5

What are we doing wrong?

Answer 5

Break-fix model: Project planners do not know/have incentive to develop projects successfully. Underestimation of budget, time. Overestimation of benefits.

This leads to: Delays lead to higher interest rates (higher costs). And the government doesn’t have reliable information about which projects to choose.