Gigerenzer, Heuristic decision making, 2011

Question 1

A procedural model of heuristics that Gigerenzer presents us.

Answer 1

Search rule (how do I gather information?)
Stopping rule (when do I have enough information?)
Decision rule (how do I consider this information to make a decision?)

Question 2

Ecological rationality

Answer 2

What does the decision serve to achieve? (specific task)
What does success mean? (Performance criteria)
What inferences can you make based on available cues? (statistical environment)
What are the consequences of getting it right/wrong? How quick do you have to decide? How available is information? (decision context)

Question 3

Example of ecological rationality

Answer 3

You are in a new restaurant, choose a dish..

What are suitable performance criteria? What’s a success?
What inferences can you make from the data available?
What is the context of the decision?

Ecologically rational strategies:

Ask the waiter what they would eat
Satisficing
Always order the same
Order what the neighbour table eats

Ecologically irrational strategies:

Sample all dishes first
Order the dish with the number that equals the sum of the digits of your birthday
Order only dishes that have no ‘R’ in their name

Question 4

What is the accuracy-effort trade off? What is the problem with it?

Answer 4

Rational assumptions:
Higher effort = higher accuracy
More complex models provide higher accuracy
More data leads to higher accuracy .
Simple heuristics are therefore only second best

But:

More complex models introduce more “noise” (variance)
More data/higher complexity can lead to over-fit (lower ability to predict)
Heuristics can sharpen the focus on key causal-relations

Question 5

Hvordan bliver beslutninger truffet ifølge litteraturen.

Answer 5

Tre generelle svar:
Hjernen anvender logik, statistik og heuristik. Disse tre redskaber bliver dog ikke benyttet ligeligt. Logik og statistik hører til rationalitet. På den anden side ses heuristik som næsten irrationelt.

Question 6

Genkendelsesheuristik.

Flydende heuristik.

Answer 6

Genkendelsesheuristik: Hvis det ene af to alternativer genkendes, og det andet ikke gør, så antages det, at det genkendte alternativ har højere værdi i forhold til kriteriet.

Flydende heuristik: Hvis begge alternativer genkendes, men den ene genkendes hurtigere, så antages det at dette alternativ har højere værdi i forhold til kriteriet.

Question 7

Konklusion for rapporten

Answer 7

Observationen var at de tre modeller for beslutningstagning - logik, statistik og heuristik - ikke er blevet behandlet ens, idet hver især passer til en særlige slags problem. Gennem rapporten har de fundet ud af at heuristik ofte kan være mere præcist end komplekse “rationelle” strategier for beslutningstagning. De fandt at man ofte har brugt komplekse modeller hvor simpel heuristik kan være ligeså eller mere præcist. Det ses som en beslutningsmekanisme der fungerer godt i komplekse omgivelser.

Question 8

Fast-and-frugal heuristics as Gigerenzer describes it.

Answer 8

Explicit or implicit decision strategies that

• Choose fraction of information available (as opposed to considering all information and alternatives)
• Are adaptive to (and effective in) a specific setting - but not generally

Question 9

Gigerenzer’s general view on heuristics. What is his critique of Kahneman?

Answer 9

argues that heuristics are not only fast but can also be frugal, that is, just as good as complex computation of extensive data.

Kahneman argues that humans are not completely rational because of bias.

Gigerenzer argues that if our brain doesn’t follow the rational models, than the problem is with our idea of rationality, not the humans.