Judgement, Decisions & Reasoning - Chapter 13 Flashcards
Judgement
Making a decision or drawing a conclusion.
Reasoning
The process of drawing conclusions.
Decision
The process of choosing between alternatives.
Inductive Reasoning
Starts specific to make broad generalizations.
Using what has happened to predict what will happen.
Representativeness of Observations
How well do observations about a category represent all members of category?
Heuristics
Shortcuts; likely to provide the correct answer to a problem but are not foolproof.
Availability Heuristic
Events that more easily come to mind are judged as being more probable than events that are less easily recalled.
Illusory Correlations
When a relationship between two events appears to exist, but in reality, there is no relationship or relationship is much weaker than it is assumed to be.
Stereotypes
Oversimplified generalization about a group or class of people that often focus on the negative.
Representativeness Heuristic
Likelihood that an instance is a member of a larger category depends on how well that instance resembles properties we typically associate with that category.
Conjunction Rule
The probability of a conjunction of two events cannot be higher than the probablity of the single constituents.
Law of Large Numbers
The larger the number of individuals that are randomly drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population.
Myside Bias
How people can evaluate evidence in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes.
Confirmation Bias
Occurs when people look for information that conforms to their hypothesis and ignore information that refutes it.
Backfire Effect
The finding that an individual’s support for a particular viewpoint could actually become stronger when faced with corrective facts opposing their viewpoint.
Deductive Reasoning
Determine whether a conclusion logically follows from statements; Use broad principles to make logical predictions about specific cases.
Syllogism
Deductive Reasoning; 2 broad statements followed by a third statement called conclusion.
a = b, b = c, a = c.
Premises
Two broad statements in syllogism.
Categorical Syllogisms
Premises and conclusion are statements that begin with All, No, or Some.
Validity
Syllogism is valid when the form of the syllogism indicates that its conclusion follows logically from its two premisis.
Belief Bias
The tendency to think a syllogism is valid if its conclusion is believale.
Mental Mode Approach
In deductive reasoning, determining if syllogisms are valid by creating mental models of situations based on the premises of the syllogism.
Mental Model
A specific situation represented in a person’s mind that can be used to help determine the validity of syllogisms in deductive reasoning.
Conditional Syllogisms
Have two premises and a conclusion, but first premise has the form “If…then.” Common in everyday life.
Wason Four-Card Problem
Conditional reasoning task; 4 cards; used to study mechanisms that determine outcomes of conditional reasoning tasks.
Falsification Principle
To test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule.
Permission Schema
If a person satisfies a specific condition, then they get to carry out an action.
Expected Utility Theory
Assumption that people are basically rational; if people have rational information, will make a decisuion that results in maximum expected utility.
Utility
Outcomes that achieve a person’s goals.
Expected Decisions
Emotions that people predict they will feel for a particular outcome.
Risk Aversion
The tendency to avoid taking risks; increases with tendency to predict a particular loss will have a greater impact than a win of the same size.
Incidental Emotions
Emotions that are not caused by having to make a decision. Related to a person’s general disposition, something that happened in day, general environment.
Opt-In Procedure
Active step to choose a course of action.
Opt-Out Procedure
Must take an active step to avoid a course of action.
Status Quo Basis
The tendency to do nothing when faced with making a decision.
Risk Aversion Strategy
Decision-making strategy that is governed by the idea of avoiding risk. Often when problem stated in terms of gains.
Risk-Taking Strategy
Decision-making strategy that is governed by the idea of taking risks; often when stated in terms of losses.
Framing Effect
Decisions are influenced by how the choices are stated or framed; gains = risk aversion; loss = risk-taking strategy.
Neuroeconomics
Research from fields of psychology, neuroscience, and economics to study how brain activation is related to decisions that involve potential gains or losses.
Ultimatum Game
2 players, one is proposer one is responder; proposer gets sum of $ with an offer for splitting, if accepted they split, if rejected no one gets $.
Dual Systems Approach
The idea that there are two mental systems; a fast, automatic, intuitive system, and a slower, more deliberate, thoughtful system (2).
What does the strength of an inductive argument depend on?
Representativeness, number and quality of observations on argument.
Base Rate Information
The relative proportion of different classes in the population; farmer vs librarian
How are truth and validity of syllogism different?
Truth - determined by the content of statements in syllogism and has to do with how statements correspond to known facts.
Anterior Insula
Associated with emotions that occur during ultimatum game.
PFC
Involved in cognitive demands of the task.
