Clare Walsh L2 Flashcards
How do we make judgements? KT
Kahneman and Tversky believe we use heuristics - rules of thumb.
What’s the downside to heuristics?
They can lead to biases
System 1
Heuristics and quick intuitive answers
System 2
Requires time and working memory to slowly work out logical answers
Availability heuristic
Judgement of how likely an event will occur based on recall of similar events
Availability influences belief C
Carroll 1978, presidents, imagination increases availability of an event consequently leading to increased judgements of it’s liklihood
Anchoring
The tendency to rely on the first piece of information provided to guide you answer
Base rate neglect
people often ignore the base rate information
K+T views on Heuristics
Irrational judgements that are inconsistent with normative theories (Kahneman and Tversky
G views on Heuristics
Adaptive toolbox of fast and frugal heuristics that help us solve real-world problems in response to environmental demands (Gigerenzer)
Why is seeing patterns useful?
Because it allows us to make predictions, however, we often see patterns when they are purely random
Gamblers Fallacy
The belief that after a streak of events the opposite is more likely
What alteration rate can be expected in a non-random sequence?
0% - TTTTT
What alteration rate can be expected in a random sequence?
100% - THTHT
What alteration rate is actually associated with random sequences?
50%
