Topic 4: The Power of Order or the Order of Power? Flashcards
Stanley Hoffmann
“Balance of Power” 1968
Main Argument: Balance of power can occur as a discrete policy (bipolar), or as a system (multipolar) without direct intent
Despite some inbuilt instability (desire for states to gain relative power) the effects can be to limit the scale and scope of war as the powers invested in the system act together to preserve it
Example: Bipolarity post-1945, multipolarity during the 19th century prior to World War 1
Robert Gilpin
“Hegemonic War and International Change”
A rising state will seek to change the status quo (rules of int’l system, spheres of influence, distribution of territory) as the perceived benefits of changing the system outweigh the costs of that change
Dominant state will alter policy to attempt to forestall this (increase resources or reduce commitments), but if it fails hegemonic war will result (war resulting from the disequilibrium of the int’l system and the redistribution of power)
Hegemonic war differs from the nature of limited war in: 1) dominant power directly contests challenger, 2) issue at stake is nature and governance of system, 3) unlimited means and the general scope of warfare
Woodrow Wilson
“Community of Power vs. Balance of Power”
Argues for importance of building international community on shared values of individual rights and popular sovereignty
Desires unrestricted commerce as a way to ensure all nations can develop without interference
Talks about making sacrifices for peace, a peace among equals that leaves no enmity
A desire for security maintained by nations united “with the same purpose” and “all act in the common interest”
avoid entangling alliances bc none of these in a concert of power > agrees with Monroe doctrine “ no nation should seak to extend its policies over another nation….”
G. John Ikenberry and Anne-Marie Slaughter
“A World of Liberty Under Law”
A recommended national security strategy primarily focused on:
- Increasing the number of democratic nations
- Enabling democratic nations to work more strongly in concert, even outside of the Un and other current institutions
Encourages atmosphere of interventionism where liberal democracies are favored and are encouraged to act to spread democracy
Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye
“Power and Interdependence”
Model of complex interdependence
Non-state actors participate in world politics, a clear hierarchy of issues doesn’t exist (military issues don’t override economic/social) and force is an ineffective instrument of policy
As force lessens in importance, other issues will gain equal importance and a “variety of state goals” must be pursued > distribution of power among states across issues will be more varied than in the past
Adam Segal
“When China Rules the Web”
For almost five decades, the United States has guided the growth of the Internet but now its ceding leadership in cyberspace to China; Xi has a plan to turn China into a “cyber superpower”
China’s continued rise as a cybersuperpower is not guarantee; Beijing has a good chance of succeeding-therebyremaking cyberspace in its own image. If this happens, the Internet will be less global and less open. A major partof it will run Chinese applications over Chinese-made hardware. And Beijing will reap the economic, diplomatic,national security, and intelligence benefits that once flowed to Washington
Putting an end to the West’s naive optimism about the liberalizing potential of the Internet? > tightening controls on sites and social media for surveillance, guiding conversations, tracking and monitoring with AI
China wants to be entirely self sufficient and not rely on the west while also controlling the new 5G wave; China has also tried to shape the international institutions and norms that govern cyberspace: says UN should be the governing body bc of benefits out brining in developing countries to its side
Jon Western and Joshua S. Goldstein
“Humanitarian Intervention Comes of Age”
Western and Goldstein argue for humanitarian intervention and do not agree with realists likened the Libyan operation to the disastrous engagements of the early 1990s in Somalia, Rwanda, and Bosnia; realists argue that humanitarian intervention is the wrong way to respond to intrastate violence and civil war, especially following the debacles in Afghanistan and Iraq
They believe that NATO’s success in protecting civilians and helping rebel forces remove a corrupt leader has become more the rule of humanitarian intervention than the exception; this play book is now integrated into a growing tool kit of conflict management strategies that includes peacekeeping operations and increasingly effective international criminal justice mechanism; they believe has created an era of less armed conflict
For humanitarian intervention to be successful you need: 1. a legitimate international coalition and access to enough military and diplomatic muscle, 2. respond most quickly save the most lives 3. design mission to withstand pressure for early exit 4. broad coalition of int, regional and local actors. 5. most hard - good exit plan (transition, intl presence); violence to control violence
Benjamin A. Valentino
“The True Costs of Humanitarian Intervention”
To establish if humanitarian intervention was the right choice: requires comparing the full costs of intervention (civilian lives lost, economic costs) with its benefits and asking whether those benefits could be achieved at a lower cost
Replace its focus on military intervention with a humanitarian foreign policy centered on saving lives by funding public health programs in the developing world, aiding victims of natural disasters, and assisting refugees fleeing violent conflict: actually save far more people, at a far lower price
Virginia Page Fortna
“Does Peacekeeping Work?”
Main Argument: Peacekeeping dramatically reduces the likelihood of the restart of hostilities between belligerents even controlling for differences in the size and capability of the peacekeeping force
Robust use of quantitative data to show at least a 50% drop in recurrence, and potentially up to 75-85% drop
Example: Use of Mozambique qualitative case study to show that an atmosphere of mistrust between parties had become entrenched and the use of a neutral third party was useful to overcome this barrier
Adam Segal
“When China Rules the Web”
How will development of the Internet interact with the evolving competition between globalization and nationalism?
The internet provides a new sphere to dominate and use as a tool to advance your country economically, politically, and security-wise and also a new sphere to govern on the international stage; it has both economic, political, and military, and human rights implications
Depending on your view you could label it a tool to promote nationalism over gloablism and while people around the world have benefited from technology it is easily weaponized and more suited to nationalism than globalism
Stanley Hoffmann
“Balance of Power” 1968
What are the various meanings of “balance of power”?
A policy by states to prevent one state from getting a preponderance of power and maintaining equilibrium, or a system where equilibrium is maintained among states even with no conscious decision to do so
Stanley Hoffmann
“Balance of Power” 1968
Of what use is whichever concept? What are practical consequences of the different conceptions?
It can tell us:
1. When states may choose to go to war (preventive war, or to combat a state with outsized ambition)
- Predict the shape of the international system:
bipolar = system of rival alliances
multipolar = maintain balance either peacefully (rewards) or through force (balancing coalition)
Stanley Hoffmann
“Balance of Power” 1968
Should we want an international balance in any of these terms? If not, what alternative is preferable?
Hoffman argues that a balance of power system is inherently unstable, as small changes in relative standing or uncertainty can cause eruption of conflict
Regardless, he argues that such a system, while not eliminating conflict, moderates them, as it tends to limit the goals and aims that war can achieve
Robert Gilpin
“Hegemonic War and International Change”
Does the sweeping historical pattern that Gilpin discerns provide lessons for the 21st century?
They can potentially inform the countries of the West with cautionary tales of how mismanaging the rise of new, powerful countries can lead to war.
The desire to maintain the status quo conflicts with the desire to challenge the status quo, therefore the flexibility of the players involved will play a direct role in the probability of conflict
US and China as the prime example to be worried about (Thucydides Trap)
Woodrow Wilson
“Community of Power vs. Balance of Power”
Where do you hear Wilson’s logic echoed since the Cold War?
In the argument for collective security
The idea that a large community of nations will work cooperatively to maintain security for all by collectively striking down aggressors within the system.
Also in the attempt to spread democratic values, such as Keohane and Nye’s piece.
