psyc of risk Flashcards
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revealed risk
how much risk a person is willing to take based on the expected utility of the outcome
what is expected utility
expected value of an action to an age calculated by multiplying the value to the agent of each possiable outcome of the action by the probability of the outcomes occurring and then summing those numbers
expected utility theory
assumes that individuals make choices to maximise their expected utility
decision under risk involves choosing between lotteries
3 step processes
evaluate each corse of action
multiple consequences
chose course of action with highest total expected utility
three step process equation
EU=Ep(x1) u (x1)
implications of the allais paradox
challenges universality of eut and reveals descrepency between rational choice theory
who created prospect theory
kahneman and tversky 1979
prospect theory ?
decision making is often influenced by framing and perceived certainty
define risk seeking
preferes uncertain outcomes to certain outcomes,utility over probablility
define risk aversion
prefere certain outcomes to uncertain outcomes, even with lower utility
define risk neutral
indifferent between certain and certain outcomes even with same expected utilities