Near-Misses

Question 1

Near-misses

Answer 1

• A special kind of failure to reach a goal, one that comes close to being successful
• The gambler feels that they’re not constantly losing, but constantly nearly winning
• In various studies, people who get a certain amount of near misses (~30% of the time) tend to play longer

Question 2

slot machine simulations of near-misses

Answer 2

• Participants play slots -> choose a picture and hope for a match
• Either win, get a near miss (matching picture is 1 away), or get a full-miss (matching picture is far away)
• Rank how pleased they are and how much you want to continue to play
• • Near misses are more aversive than full misses, but enhance motivation to play

Question 3

slot machine simulations of near misses: brain activty

Answer 3

• Ventral striatum and insula are more highly activated during near misses than full misses -> not processed identically in the brain, even though you lose either time (there’s a slight reward buzz for near-misses)
• These effects are even stronger in problem gamblers

Question 4

Mechanisms: near misses and skill

Answer 4

• In many skillful situations (ex. Playing soccer), near-misses (ex. Shots that hit the post) are useful signals of skill acquisition
• In games of chance, near-misses may be erroneously interpreted in the same way -> near misses could fuel the illusion of control

Question 5

Mechanisms: near misses and “if only” thoughts

Answer 5

• AKA: Counterfactual thinking – process of mentally simulating alternative versions of events
• Comparing reality vs. The counterfactual can create regret and relief; intense emotional states
• • Ex. Getting bronze medal = downward counterfactual (relief – you nearly didn’t get a medal)
• • Ex. Getting silver medal = upward counterfactual (regret – you nearly got the gold)

Question 6

2 mechanisms of the influence of near misses

Answer 6

• near misses and skill

- near misses and “if only” thoughts

Question 7

gambling distortions following brain injury

Answer 7

• Participants had injury to vmPFC, insula, amygdala, or no injury
• In slot machine task, most participants report increased motivation to play after near-miss outcomes compared to full-misses
• • Effect abolished in insula group (find near misses de-motivating)
• In gambler’s fallacy task, most participants less likely to choose red after run of consecutive reds
• • Effect abolished in insula group again -> reduced gambling distortions