Judgement and Decision Making Flashcards by Mia Philip

Define

Availability heuristic

a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person’s mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision

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Define

Base rate

the proportion of individual in the population who show the behaviour of interest in a given psychological testing or assessment situation

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Define

Belief bias

the tendency to judge the strength of arguments based on the plausibility of their conclusion rather than how strongly they support that conclusion

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Define

Categorical syllogism

an argument consisting of exactly three categorical propositions (two premises and a conclusion) in which there appear a total of exactly three categorical terms, each of which is used exactly twice

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Define

Conclusion (of syllogism)

a kind of logical argument that applies deductive reasoning to arrive at a conclusion based on two or more propositions that are asserted or assumed to be true

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Define

Conditional syllogism

It is one whose major premise is a conditional proposition and whose minor premise and conclusion are categorical propositions. It consists of the antecedent and the consequent for the truth of the hypothetical judgment lies in the truth of dependence between the two clauses

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Define

Confirmation bias

type of cognitive bias that involves favoring information that confirms your previously existing beliefs or biases

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Conjunction rule

Calculates the probability of two (or more) events BOTH happening

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Decisions

a conclusion or resolution reached after consideration

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Deductive reasoning

the process of reasoning from one or more statements (premises) to reach a logically certain conclusion

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Dual systems approach

This is a concept that individuals have two different sets of decision-making processes

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Define

Expected emotion

anticipated emotional states associated with a given decision that are never actually experienced

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Define

Expected utility theory

concerning people’s preferences with regard to choices that have uncertain outcomes (gambles)⁠—states that the subjective value associated with an individual’s gamble is the statistical expectation of that individual’s valuations of the outcomes of that gamble, where these valuations may differ from the dollar value of those outcomes

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Define

Falsification principle

proposed by scientific philosopher Karl Popper. It proposes that for something to be scientific it must be be able to be proven false. If things are falsifiable (able to possibly be proven false) then they can be used in scientific studies and inquiry

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Define

Framing effect

a cognitive bias where people decide on options based on whether the options are presented with positive or negative connotations; e.g. as a loss or as a gain

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Heuristics

the strategies derived from previous experiences with similar problems

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Illusory correlation

the phenomenon of perceiving a relationship between variables (typically people, events, or behaviors) even when no such relationship exists

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Incidental emotions

the emotions we carry with us to the decision that have nothing to do with the decision

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Define

Inductive reasoning

a method of reasoning in which the premises are viewed as supplying some evidence for the truth of the conclusion; this is in contrast to deductive reasoning

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Define

Law of large numbers

a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times

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Mental model

an explanation of someone’s thought process about how something works in the real world

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Myside bias

occurs when people evaluate evidence, generate evidence, and test hypotheses in a manner biased toward their own prior opinions and attitudes

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Define

Neuroeconomics

an interdisciplinary field that seeks to explain human decision making, the ability to process multiple alternatives and to follow a course of action

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Define

Opt-in procedure

The consumer enables direct marketing communication by subscribing in a list or sending a query that he is willing to receive advertisements via e-mail, SMS, etc.

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# Define Opt-out procedure

Consumers who are not interested in particular marketing measures, or in direct marketing measures in general, can subscribe to a list, which is checked by commercial address brokers

# Define Premise

a previous statement or proposition from which another is inferred or follows as a conclusion.

# Define Reasoning

the action of thinking about something in a logical, sensible way

# Define Representativeness heuristic

assessing similarity of objects and organizing them based around the category prototype (e.g., like goes with like, and causes and effects should resemble each other)

# Define Risk aversion

the behavior of humans (especially consumers and investors), who, when exposed to uncertainty, attempt to lower that uncertainty

# Define Social exchange theory

a sociological and psychological theory that studies the social behavior in the interaction of two parties that implement a cost-benefit analysis to determine risks and benefits

# Define Wason four-card problem

a logic puzzle devised by Peter Cathcart Wason in 1966. It is one of the most famous tasks in the study of deductive reasoning

# Definition a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person's mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision

Availability heuristic

# Definition the proportion of individual in the population who show the behaviour of interest in a given psychological testing or assessment situation

Base rate

# Definition the tendency to judge the strength of arguments based on the plausibility of their conclusion rather than how strongly they support that conclusion

Belief bias

# Definition an argument consisting of exactly three categorical propositions (two premises and a conclusion) in which there appear a total of exactly three categorical terms, each of which is used exactly twice

Categorical syllogism

# Definition a kind of logical argument that applies deductive reasoning to arrive at a conclusion based on two or more propositions that are asserted or assumed to be true

Conclusion (of syllogism)

# Definition It is one whose major premise is a conditional proposition and whose minor premise and conclusion are categorical propositions. It consists of the antecedent and the consequent for the truth of the hypothetical judgment lies in the truth of dependence between the two clauses

Conditional syllogism

# Definition type of cognitive bias that involves favoring information that confirms your previously existing beliefs or biases

Confirmation bias

# Definition Calculates the probability of two (or more) events BOTH happening

Conjunction rule

# Definition a conclusion or resolution reached after consideration

Decisions

# Definition the process of reasoning from one or more statements (premises) to reach a logically certain conclusion

Deductive reasoning

# Definition This is a concept that individuals have two different sets of decision-making processes

Dual systems approach

# Definition anticipated emotional states associated with a given decision that are never actually experienced

Expected emotion

# Definition concerning people's preferences with regard to choices that have uncertain outcomes (gambles)⁠—states that the subjective value associated with an individual's gamble is the statistical expectation of that individual's valuations of the outcomes of that gamble, where these valuations may differ from the dollar value of those outcomes

Expected utility theory

# Definition proposed by scientific philosopher Karl Popper. It proposes that for something to be scientific it must be be able to be proven false. If things are falsifiable (able to possibly be proven false) then they can be used in scientific studies and inquiry

Falsification principle

# Definition a cognitive bias where people decide on options based on whether the options are presented with positive or negative connotations; e.g. as a loss or as a gain

Framing effect

# Definition the strategies derived from previous experiences with similar problems

Heuristics

# Definition the phenomenon of perceiving a relationship between variables (typically people, events, or behaviors) even when no such relationship exists

Illusory correlation

# Definition the emotions we carry with us to the decision that have nothing to do with the decision

Incidental emotions

# Definition a method of reasoning in which the premises are viewed as supplying some evidence for the truth of the conclusion; this is in contrast to deductive reasoning

Inductive reasoning

# Definition a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times

Law of large numbers

# Definition an explanation of someone's thought process about how something works in the real world

Mental model

# Definition occurs when people evaluate evidence, generate evidence, and test hypotheses in a manner biased toward their own prior opinions and attitudes

Myside bias

# Definition an interdisciplinary field that seeks to explain human decision making, the ability to process multiple alternatives and to follow a course of action

Neuroeconomics

# Definition The consumer enables direct marketing communication by subscribing in a list or sending a query that he is willing to receive advertisements via e-mail, SMS, etc.

Opt-in procedure

# Definition Consumers who are not interested in particular marketing measures, or in direct marketing measures in general, can subscribe to a list, which is checked by commercial address brokers

Opt-out procedure

# Definition a previous statement or proposition from which another is inferred or follows as a conclusion.

Premise

# Definition the action of thinking about something in a logical, sensible way

Reasoning

# Definition assessing similarity of objects and organizing them based around the category prototype (e.g., like goes with like, and causes and effects should resemble each other)

Representativeness heuristic

# Definition the behavior of humans (especially consumers and investors), who, when exposed to uncertainty, attempt to lower that uncertainty

Risk aversion

# Definition a sociological and psychological theory that studies the social behavior in the interaction of two parties that implement a cost-benefit analysis to determine risks and benefits

Social exchange theory

# Definition a logic puzzle devised by Peter Cathcart Wason in 1966. It is one of the most famous tasks in the study of deductive reasoning

Wason four-card problem

What is reasoning?

Evaluating only the information given

What is judgement?

Reasoin using given information but going beyond to make a conclusion. Requires abstractation from the information or discerning a pattern

What is decision making?

Evaluating given information (like reasoning), making a judgement and then choosing between alternatives

What is bounded rationality?

Bounded rationality is the idea that in decision-making, rationality of individuals is limited by the information they have, the cognitive limitations of their minds, and the finite amount of time they have to make a decision

What does the Iowa Gambling Task reveal about the decision-making of substace users?

Tend to be biased toward small immediate gains at the cost of larger losses over time

What is inductive reasoning?

Making judgments on the basis of observations, or reaching conclusions from evidence

True or False: In inductive reasoning, the conclusion is probably, but not definitely true

True

True or False: In deductive reasoning, the conclusion is probably, but not definitely true

False The conclusion must be correct if the premises are correct

What are some examples of inductive reasoning?

Analogical reasoning Hypothesis testing

What type of reasoning is involved in this task?

Analogical reasoning

What does analogical reasoning involve?

Using a relationship between two variables as the basis of a relationship between two other variables

This task is testing what type of reasoning? A is to B as C is to \_\_\_

Analogical reasoning

What does analogical reasoning performance depend on?

* Complication of individual terms * Knowledge of the reasoner * Ease of finding a relationship between A and B * Load on memory

What does hypothesis testing involve?

Hypothesis testing involves going from the particular (i.e. sample) to the general (i.e. population)

True or False: Hypotheses cannot be confirmed as true, but they can be shown not to be true

True

How do laypeople perform on the following task? You are given the numbers 2, 4 and 6 and are told that this triplet of numbers follows a rule, which you have to identify; you are told that the experimenter had a rule in mind

People guessed, but tended to just look for evidence for what they were thinking rather than trying to disprove their ideas * This strategy belies a tendency to strive toward proving one’s hypothesis instead of disproving it (called confirmation bias) * Only 20% of participants solved the problem without error * Numbers were ascending

What factors influence reasoning?

Effects of premise phrasing (positive or negatives) Quantifiers (all/none easier than some) The order in which a propositions are presented also affects comprehension Alteration of premise meaning Failure to consier all possibilities Myside bias

All A’s are B’s Some B’s are C’s Which of these diagrams represents this premise information?

They are both possibly with the given information

Watching a debate and taking the side of the issue you always take regardless of the evidence is an example of what type of bias?

Myside bias

What are some examples of heuristics and biases?

Myside Availability Recognition Representativeness Confirmation etc.

People tend to be more afraid to ride in planes than cars despite more people dying in car accidents. What is this an example of?

Availability bias Media covers more plane crashes than car crashes

The _________ heuristic proposes that we evaluate the probability or likelihood of an event by judging the ease with which relevant instances come to mind

The **availability** heuristic proposes that we evaluate the probability or likelihood of an event by judging the ease with which relevant instances come to mind

The __________ heuristic operates when we assess the degree to which the object of our attention is similar to, or represents, our basic idea (or stereotype) of that object

The **representativeness** heuristic operates when we assess the degree to which the object of our attention is similar to, or represents, our basic idea (or stereotype) of that object

Which type of reasoning involves formal rules of proof?

Deductive reasoning

What are the types of deductive reasoning?

Conditional reasoning Conditional syllogisms

In conditional *reasoning/syllogisms* premises are combined to create arguments

In conditional **reasoning** premises are combined to create arguments

True or False: Conditional reasoning requires both confirming and disconfirming evidence

True

Conditional *reasoning/syllogisms* presents two or more premises and requires that we determine whether the conclusion is true or false

Conditional **syllogisms** presents two or more premises and requires that we determine whether the conclusion is true or false

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ present premises that deal with classes of entities

**Categorical syllogisms** present premises that deal with classes of entities

“All golden retrievers are dogs” and “No polar bears are inanimate objects” are examples of what?

Conditional syllogisms

True or False: If all red books are astronomy books and all astronomy books are large then all red books are large

True

All mammals are animals All dogs are mammals Therefore, all dogs are animals What type of reasoning is this an example of?

Syllogistic reasoning

What is/are the primary component(s) of decision-making? Select one: a. Evaluating the given information b. Making a judgement c. Choosing between alternatives d. All of the above

What is/are the primary component(s) of decision-making? Select one: a. Evaluating the given information b. Making a judgement c. Choosing between alternatives **d. All of the above**

Inductive reasoning goes from the ___________ to the \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_, and therefore _____________ add knowledge. ## Footnote **Options:** * adds* * external* * specific* * internal* * general* * does not add*

Inductive reasoning goes from the **specific** to the **general**, and therefore **adds** knowledge.

All spiders have 8 legs. A black widow is a spider. Therefore, black widows have 8 legs. This is a form of _______ reasoning.

All spiders have 8 legs. A black widow is a spider. Therefore, black widows have 8 legs. This is a form of **deductive** reasoning.

The first lolly you pull out of a bowl is strawberry flavoured. The next lolly you pull out is also strawberry flavoured. Therefore, every lolly in that bowl is strawberry flavoured. This is a form of ________ reasoning.

Analogical reasoning uses the relationship between two variables as the basis of a relationship between two other variables. An example of this is: Select one: a. Snake is to scaly as dog is to furry b. Snake is to scaly as dog is to Jack Russell c. Snake is to scaly as dog is to cute d. Snake is to scaly as dog is to happy

Analogical reasoning uses the relationship between two variables as the basis of a relationship between two other variables. An example of this is: Select one: **a. Snake is to scaly as dog is to furry** b. Snake is to scaly as dog is to Jack Russell c. Snake is to scaly as dog is to cute d. Snake is to scaly as dog is to happy

True or false: A hypothesis can be confirmed as true and can be confirmed not to be true.

False

Andrew believes that drinking lemon juice can cure the common cold. He Googles his hypothesis and reads all of the information that states lemon juice can cure the common cold. He ignores all pages that state lemon juice cannot cure the common cold. Andrew is experiencing: Select one: a. Schema shift b. The confirmation bias c. Cognitive dissonance d. Disconfirming evidence

Andrew believes that drinking lemon juice can cure the common cold. He Googles his hypothesis and reads all of the information that states lemon juice can cure the common cold. He ignores all pages that state lemon juice cannot cure the common cold. Andrew is experiencing: Select one: a. Schema shift **b. The confirmation bias** c. Cognitive dissonance d. Disconfirming evidence

“I knew this would happen!” is an example of: Select one or more: Hindsight bias Availability bias Recognition bias Confirmation bias

“I knew this would happen!” is an example of: Select one or more: **Hindsight bias** Availability bias Recognition bias Confirmation bias

True or false: In conditional reasoning, the final truth value of an argument depends on the truth of an individual premise. Categorical syllogisms present two or more premises and require us to determine whether the conclusion is true or false.

True

Judgement and Decision Making Flashcards

(103 cards)