Judgement and Decision Making Flashcards
Define
Availability heuristic
a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person’s mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision
Define
Base rate
the proportion of individual in the population who show the behaviour of interest in a given psychological testing or assessment situation
Define
Belief bias
the tendency to judge the strength of arguments based on the plausibility of their conclusion rather than how strongly they support that conclusion
Define
Categorical syllogism
an argument consisting of exactly three categorical propositions (two premises and a conclusion) in which there appear a total of exactly three categorical terms, each of which is used exactly twice
Define
Conclusion (of syllogism)
a kind of logical argument that applies deductive reasoning to arrive at a conclusion based on two or more propositions that are asserted or assumed to be true
Define
Conditional syllogism
It is one whose major premise is a conditional proposition and whose minor premise and conclusion are categorical propositions. It consists of the antecedent and the consequent for the truth of the hypothetical judgment lies in the truth of dependence between the two clauses
Define
Confirmation bias
type of cognitive bias that involves favoring information that confirms your previously existing beliefs or biases
Define
Conjunction rule
Calculates the probability of two (or more) events BOTH happening
Define
Decisions
a conclusion or resolution reached after consideration
Define
Deductive reasoning
the process of reasoning from one or more statements (premises) to reach a logically certain conclusion
Define
Dual systems approach
This is a concept that individuals have two different sets of decision-making processes
Define
Expected emotion
anticipated emotional states associated with a given decision that are never actually experienced
Define
Expected utility theory
concerning people’s preferences with regard to choices that have uncertain outcomes (gambles)—states that the subjective value associated with an individual’s gamble is the statistical expectation of that individual’s valuations of the outcomes of that gamble, where these valuations may differ from the dollar value of those outcomes
Define
Falsification principle
proposed by scientific philosopher Karl Popper. It proposes that for something to be scientific it must be be able to be proven false. If things are falsifiable (able to possibly be proven false) then they can be used in scientific studies and inquiry
Define
Framing effect
a cognitive bias where people decide on options based on whether the options are presented with positive or negative connotations; e.g. as a loss or as a gain
Define
Heuristics
the strategies derived from previous experiences with similar problems
Define
Illusory correlation
the phenomenon of perceiving a relationship between variables (typically people, events, or behaviors) even when no such relationship exists
Define
Incidental emotions
the emotions we carry with us to the decision that have nothing to do with the decision
Define
Inductive reasoning
a method of reasoning in which the premises are viewed as supplying some evidence for the truth of the conclusion; this is in contrast to deductive reasoning
Define
Law of large numbers
a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times
Define
Mental model
an explanation of someone’s thought process about how something works in the real world
Define
Myside bias
occurs when people evaluate evidence, generate evidence, and test hypotheses in a manner biased toward their own prior opinions and attitudes
Define
Neuroeconomics
an interdisciplinary field that seeks to explain human decision making, the ability to process multiple alternatives and to follow a course of action
Define
Opt-in procedure
The consumer enables direct marketing communication by subscribing in a list or sending a query that he is willing to receive advertisements via e-mail, SMS, etc.
Define
Opt-out procedure
Consumers who are not interested in particular marketing measures, or in direct marketing measures in general, can subscribe to a list, which is checked by commercial address brokers
Define
Premise
a previous statement or proposition from which another is inferred or follows as a conclusion.
Define
Reasoning
the action of thinking about something in a logical, sensible way
Define
Representativeness heuristic
assessing similarity of objects and organizing them based around the category prototype (e.g., like goes with like, and causes and effects should resemble each other)
Define
Risk aversion
the behavior of humans (especially consumers and investors), who, when exposed to uncertainty, attempt to lower that uncertainty
Define
Social exchange theory
a sociological and psychological theory that studies the social behavior in the interaction of two parties that implement a cost-benefit analysis to determine risks and benefits
Define
Wason four-card problem
a logic puzzle devised by Peter Cathcart Wason in 1966. It is one of the most famous tasks in the study of deductive reasoning
Definition
a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person’s mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision
Availability heuristic
Definition
the proportion of individual in the population who show the behaviour of interest in a given psychological testing or assessment situation
Base rate
Definition
the tendency to judge the strength of arguments based on the plausibility of their conclusion rather than how strongly they support that conclusion
Belief bias
Definition
an argument consisting of exactly three categorical propositions (two premises and a conclusion) in which there appear a total of exactly three categorical terms, each of which is used exactly twice
Categorical syllogism
Definition
a kind of logical argument that applies deductive reasoning to arrive at a conclusion based on two or more propositions that are asserted or assumed to be true
Conclusion (of syllogism)
Definition
It is one whose major premise is a conditional proposition and whose minor premise and conclusion are categorical propositions. It consists of the antecedent and the consequent for the truth of the hypothetical judgment lies in the truth of dependence between the two clauses
Conditional syllogism
Definition
type of cognitive bias that involves favoring information that confirms your previously existing beliefs or biases
Confirmation bias
Definition
Calculates the probability of two (or more) events BOTH happening
Conjunction rule
Definition
a conclusion or resolution reached after consideration
Decisions
Definition
the process of reasoning from one or more statements (premises) to reach a logically certain conclusion
Deductive reasoning
Definition
This is a concept that individuals have two different sets of decision-making processes
Dual systems approach
Definition
anticipated emotional states associated with a given decision that are never actually experienced
Expected emotion
Definition
concerning people’s preferences with regard to choices that have uncertain outcomes (gambles)—states that the subjective value associated with an individual’s gamble is the statistical expectation of that individual’s valuations of the outcomes of that gamble, where these valuations may differ from the dollar value of those outcomes
Expected utility theory
Definition
proposed by scientific philosopher Karl Popper. It proposes that for something to be scientific it must be be able to be proven false. If things are falsifiable (able to possibly be proven false) then they can be used in scientific studies and inquiry
Falsification principle
Definition
a cognitive bias where people decide on options based on whether the options are presented with positive or negative connotations; e.g. as a loss or as a gain
Framing effect
Definition
the strategies derived from previous experiences with similar problems
Heuristics
Definition
the phenomenon of perceiving a relationship between variables (typically people, events, or behaviors) even when no such relationship exists
Illusory correlation
Definition
the emotions we carry with us to the decision that have nothing to do with the decision
Incidental emotions
Definition
a method of reasoning in which the premises are viewed as supplying some evidence for the truth of the conclusion; this is in contrast to deductive reasoning
Inductive reasoning
Definition
a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times
Law of large numbers
Definition
an explanation of someone’s thought process about how something works in the real world
Mental model
Definition
occurs when people evaluate evidence, generate evidence, and test hypotheses in a manner biased toward their own prior opinions and attitudes
Myside bias
Definition
an interdisciplinary field that seeks to explain human decision making, the ability to process multiple alternatives and to follow a course of action
Neuroeconomics
Definition
The consumer enables direct marketing communication by subscribing in a list or sending a query that he is willing to receive advertisements via e-mail, SMS, etc.
Opt-in procedure
Definition
Consumers who are not interested in particular marketing measures, or in direct marketing measures in general, can subscribe to a list, which is checked by commercial address brokers
Opt-out procedure
Definition
a previous statement or proposition from which another is inferred or follows as a conclusion.
Premise
Definition
the action of thinking about something in a logical, sensible way
Reasoning
Definition
assessing similarity of objects and organizing them based around the category prototype (e.g., like goes with like, and causes and effects should resemble each other)
Representativeness heuristic
Definition
the behavior of humans (especially consumers and investors), who, when exposed to uncertainty, attempt to lower that uncertainty
Risk aversion
Definition
a sociological and psychological theory that studies the social behavior in the interaction of two parties that implement a cost-benefit analysis to determine risks and benefits
Social exchange theory
Definition
a logic puzzle devised by Peter Cathcart Wason in 1966. It is one of the most famous tasks in the study of deductive reasoning
Wason four-card problem
What is reasoning?
Evaluating only the information given
What is judgement?
Reasoin using given information but going beyond to make a conclusion.
Requires abstractation from the information or discerning a pattern
What is decision making?
Evaluating given information (like reasoning), making a judgement and then choosing between alternatives
What is bounded rationality?
Bounded rationality is the idea that in decision-making, rationality of individuals is limited by the information they have, the cognitive limitations of their minds, and the finite amount of time they have to make a decision
What does the Iowa Gambling Task reveal about the decision-making of substace users?
Tend to be biased toward small immediate gains at the cost of larger losses over time
What is inductive reasoning?
Making judgments on the basis of observations, or reaching conclusions from evidence
True or False:
In inductive reasoning, the conclusion is probably, but not definitely true
True
True or False:
In deductive reasoning, the conclusion is probably, but not definitely true
False
The conclusion must be correct if the premises are correct
What are some examples of inductive reasoning?
Analogical reasoning
Hypothesis testing
What type of reasoning is involved in this task?
Analogical reasoning
What does analogical reasoning involve?
Using a relationship between two variables as the basis of a relationship between two other variables
This task is testing what type of reasoning?
A is to B as C is to ___
Analogical reasoning
What does analogical reasoning performance depend on?
- Complication of individual terms
- Knowledge of the reasoner
- Ease of finding a relationship between A and B
- Load on memory
What does hypothesis testing involve?
Hypothesis testing involves going from the particular (i.e. sample) to the general (i.e. population)
True or False:
Hypotheses cannot be confirmed as true, but they can be shown not to be true
True
How do laypeople perform on the following task?
You are given the numbers 2, 4 and 6 and are told that this triplet of numbers follows a rule, which you have to identify; you are told that the experimenter had a rule in mind
People guessed, but tended to just look for evidence for what they were thinking rather than trying to disprove their ideas
- This strategy belies a tendency to strive toward proving one’s hypothesis instead of disproving it (called confirmation bias)
- Only 20% of participants solved the problem without error
- Numbers were ascending
What factors influence reasoning?
Effects of premise phrasing (positive or negatives)
Quantifiers (all/none easier than some)
The order in which a propositions are presented also affects comprehension
Alteration of premise meaning
Failure to consier all possibilities
Myside bias
All A’s are B’s
Some B’s are C’s
Which of these diagrams represents this premise information?
They are both possibly with the given information
Watching a debate and taking the side of the issue you always take regardless of the evidence is an example of what type of bias?
Myside bias
What are some examples of heuristics and biases?
Myside
Availability
Recognition
Representativeness
Confirmation
etc.
People tend to be more afraid to ride in planes than cars despite more people dying in car accidents. What is this an example of?
Availability bias
Media covers more plane crashes than car crashes
The _________ heuristic proposes that we evaluate the probability or likelihood of an event by judging the ease with which relevant instances come to mind
The availability heuristic proposes that we evaluate the probability or likelihood of an event by judging the ease with which relevant instances come to mind
The __________ heuristic operates when we assess the degree to which the object of our attention is similar to, or represents, our basic idea (or stereotype) of that object
The representativeness heuristic operates when we assess the degree to which the object of our attention is similar to, or represents, our basic idea (or stereotype) of that object
Which type of reasoning involves formal rules of proof?
Deductive reasoning
What are the types of deductive reasoning?
Conditional reasoning
Conditional syllogisms
In conditional reasoning/syllogisms premises are combined to create arguments
In conditional reasoning premises are combined to create arguments
True or False:
Conditional reasoning requires both confirming and disconfirming evidence
True
Conditional reasoning/syllogisms presents two or more premises and requires that we determine whether the conclusion is true or false
Conditional syllogisms presents two or more premises and requires that we determine whether the conclusion is true or false
______________ present premises that deal with classes of entities
Categorical syllogisms present premises that deal with classes of entities
“All golden retrievers are dogs” and “No polar bears are inanimate objects” are examples of what?
Conditional syllogisms
True or False:
If all red books are astronomy books
and all astronomy books are large
then all red books are large
True
All mammals are animals
All dogs are mammals
Therefore, all dogs are animals
What type of reasoning is this an example of?
Syllogistic reasoning
What is/are the primary component(s) of decision-making?
Select one:
a. Evaluating the given information
b. Making a judgement
c. Choosing between alternatives
d. All of the above
What is/are the primary component(s) of decision-making?
Select one:
a. Evaluating the given information
b. Making a judgement
c. Choosing between alternatives
d. All of the above
Inductive reasoning goes from the ___________ to the ___________, and therefore _____________ add knowledge.
Options:
- adds*
- external*
- specific*
- internal*
- general*
- does not add*
Inductive reasoning goes from the specific to the general, and therefore adds knowledge.
All spiders have 8 legs. A black widow is a spider. Therefore, black widows have 8 legs. This is a form of _______ reasoning.
All spiders have 8 legs. A black widow is a spider. Therefore, black widows have 8 legs. This is a form of deductive reasoning.
The first lolly you pull out of a bowl is strawberry flavoured. The next lolly you pull out is also strawberry flavoured. Therefore, every lolly in that bowl is strawberry flavoured. This is a form of ________ reasoning.
The first lolly you pull out of a bowl is strawberry flavoured. The next lolly you pull out is also strawberry flavoured. Therefore, every lolly in that bowl is strawberry flavoured. This is a form of inductive reasoning.
Analogical reasoning uses the relationship between two variables as the basis of a relationship between two other variables. An example of this is:
Select one:
a. Snake is to scaly as dog is to furry
b. Snake is to scaly as dog is to Jack Russell
c. Snake is to scaly as dog is to cute
d. Snake is to scaly as dog is to happy
Analogical reasoning uses the relationship between two variables as the basis of a relationship between two other variables. An example of this is:
Select one:
a. Snake is to scaly as dog is to furry
b. Snake is to scaly as dog is to Jack Russell
c. Snake is to scaly as dog is to cute
d. Snake is to scaly as dog is to happy
True or false:
A hypothesis can be confirmed as true and can be confirmed not to be true.
False
Andrew believes that drinking lemon juice can cure the common cold. He Googles his hypothesis and reads all of the information that states lemon juice can cure the common cold. He ignores all pages that state lemon juice cannot cure the common cold. Andrew is experiencing:
Select one:
a. Schema shift
b. The confirmation bias
c. Cognitive dissonance
d. Disconfirming evidence
Andrew believes that drinking lemon juice can cure the common cold. He Googles his hypothesis and reads all of the information that states lemon juice can cure the common cold. He ignores all pages that state lemon juice cannot cure the common cold. Andrew is experiencing:
Select one:
a. Schema shift
b. The confirmation bias
c. Cognitive dissonance
d. Disconfirming evidence
“I knew this would happen!” is an example of:
Select one or more:
Hindsight bias
Availability bias
Recognition bias
Confirmation bias
“I knew this would happen!” is an example of:
Select one or more:
Hindsight bias
Availability bias
Recognition bias
Confirmation bias
True or false:
In conditional reasoning, the final truth value of an argument depends on the truth of an individual premise. Categorical syllogisms present two or more premises and require us to determine whether the conclusion is true or false.
True
