Japan

Question 1

Pre World War II ( before 1945)

Answer 1

. High birth rates and death rates ( stage 1), however population growth has constrained by high mortality rates due to diseases, famine and lack of medical care

Question 2

Post World War II ( economic boom in 1950s to 1970s)

Answer 2

. Dramatic decrease in death rates due to improvements In medical care, nutrition and public health measure. This lead to population boom as birth rates remained high during the initial phase of economic recovery

. 1970s: the beginning of stage 3, where birth rates started to decline due to increased urbanisation, better education and changes in societal norms regarding family size

Question 3

Modern Era ( 1980s - present )

Answer 3

. Stage 4- birth rates and death rates both become low, resulting in stabilised population ( high levels of economic development, advanced healthcare and societal shifts towards smaller families)

. Stage 5- the country has the worlds lowest fertility rate, well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per women ( the total fertility rate ( TFR) in Japan was around 1.36 in 2022 )

This decline in birth rates and high life expectancy ( 84 years) has lead to an aging population and natural decrease in population numbers

Question 4

Data and trends

Answer 4

. Population peak and decline:
- 2010: Population peaked at around 128 million, then population declined
- 2023: population estimated to be around 125 million and is projected to decrease to ~ 88 million by 2065

Aging population:
- highest proportion of elderly people globally
- 2021: 29% of population was aged 65 or over

Low birth rates:
- combination of high living costs, limited living space and changing cultural attitudes towards family and career
- 2021: 7.1 births per 1,000 people ( one of the lowest in the world)

Question 5

Comparison with DTM

Answer 5

. Stages 2,3 and 4 however the country now exemplifies stage 5 which is not traditionally included in DTM

Question 6

Characteristics of Japan’s population change ( Aging population)

Answer 6

• 2021: 29% of population where aged 65 or over. ( highest proportion of elderly people globally)
• increasing dependency ratio: number of economically active people ( 15-64) is declining relative to the number of retirees

Question 7

Declining birth rates

Answer 7

. Low fertility rate: total population fertility rate (TFR) is around 1.36, far below the replacement level of 2.1 Children per women. Resulted in natural population decrease

. Societal factors: high living costs, limited living space and changing cultural attitudes towards family and career

Question 8

Population decline

Answer 8

Peak and Decline:
-2010: population peaked at around 128 million
- 2065: predict a decrease to ~ 88 million

Migration: low levels of immigration compared to other developed countries which can offset some population decline

Question 9

Stage 6 ( post decline stabilisation or Adaptation)

Answer 9

1. Population stabilisation or slow decline:
   . population numbers stabilising at a lower level or continue to decline slowly
2. Increased dependency ratio:
   . Increased focus on elderly care, social security and healthcare systems
3. Economic and social adaptations
   . Economic structures may shift to accommodate smaller, older workforce
4. Cultural and social shifts
   . Changes in family structures, gender roles and societal norms could play a significant role in promoting work life balance and child care

Question 10

Examples of stage 6 policy responses

Answer 10

. Pro natalist policies- encourage higher birth rates by implementing parental leave policies and childcare support ( however these have limited access so far)

. Elder care innovations: Developing technologies and services for elderly care, e.g. robotic caregivers and smart homes designed for aging population

. Workforce Adaption: retain older workers in the economy and increase females in the workforce