future global population prospects Flashcards
What is the projected global population by 2100 according to the UN?
The global population is projected to reach 11.2 billion by 2100.
What do the ‘high’, ‘middle’, and ‘low’ projections for population growth indicate?
The projections indicate fertility rates: high fertility rates correspond to higher population growth (high projection), while lower fertility rates correspond to slower population growth (low projection).
What might cause global population growth to stop or even decline by 2100?
If fertility rates become lower than projected, population growth could stop, and the population could decline, potentially reaching 8.7 billion in the 2050s before returning to current levels by 2100.
Why is there uncertainty in population projections?
There is uncertainty due to potential future threats like global warming, which could impact population growth.
How has the global population growth rate changed?
The global population growth rate has slowed, mainly due to the projected lowering of the total fertility rate.
What is the trend in total fertility rates from 2010-2015 compared to projections for 2095-2100?
From 2010-2015, many countries had fertility rates over 4 live births per woman, especially in Africa. By 2095-2100, all countries are projected to have a total fertility rate lower than 2.50.
How does a decrease in fertility rate affect population growth?
As fertility rates decrease, population growth slows because fewer children are born per woman, leading to smaller increases in population year upon year.
How will population distribution change in the future?
Population growth will vary by region, with low-income countries (LICs) having the highest growth rates, while upper-middle and high-income countries will see slower or declining growth.
What does the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) explain about population growth in low-income countries?
LICs are typically in stage 2 or early stage 3 of the DTM, where there is a high birth rate and a lowered death rate, leading to rapid population growth.
What is expected to happen to the population of upper-middle-income countries by 2100?
Upper-middle-income countries are expected to experience the largest decline in population by 2100.
How will the populations of high-income countries change by 2100?
The population in high-income countries is projected to level out, with little or no significant decline.
What significant changes in the global population rankings are expected by 2100?
India is expected to overtake China as the most populous country, and Nigeria is projected to grow from the 7th to the 3rd most populous country, surpassing the US.
