Forecasting Flashcards
What is forecasting
he process of making predictions about future events or trends in the market, sales, consumer behavior, or other business-related areas, based on historical data and other relevant information. In order to aid planning
Advantages of Forecasting
- Improved decision-making
- Better planning and allocation of resources
- Increased competitiveness
- Better risk management
- Increased efficiency
- improved financial performance
Difference between qualitative forecasting and quantitative forecasting
- Qualitative forecasting involves using subjective judgment, expert opinions, and other non-numeric information to make predictions.
- Quantitative forecasting, on the other hand, involves the use of mathematical models and statistical techniques to make predictions based on historical data
Structured methods of qualitative forecasting (Delphi Technique)
It involves gathering expert opinions through a structured and iterative process.
In a typical Delphi study, a group of experts is asked to provide their opinions about a future event or trend. These opinions are then compiled and shared with the group, who are then asked to revise their opinions based on the insights of their peers. This process is repeated several times until a consensus is reached or until the level of agreement stabilizes.
Unstructured methods of qualitative forecasting (Brainstorming and Intuition)
- Brainstorming is a group problem-solving technique in which a group of people are encouraged to generate as many ideas as possible in a short period of time.
- Intuition forecasting involves relying on personal experience, gut feeling, and other informal sources of information to make predictions.
Advantages and Disadvantages of Structured and Unstructured methods of forecasting.
Calculate the range of quantitative financial forecasts including sales, costs, profits and cash flow
What is meant by Seasonal and Cyclical variations
How to calculate cyclical variation
How seasonal and cyclical variations impact forecasting
How to use correlations to analyse trends and make forecasts
How to use Time Series Analysis
How should a business respond to forecasts
What is the importance of accurate forecasting to a business and its stakeholders
Disadvantages of forecasting