Chapter 12 - Deductive Reasoning and Decision-Making

Question 1

deductive reasoning

Answer 1

begin with specific premises that are generally true - allow you to draw a conclusion based on logic

Question 2

conditional reasoning

Answer 2

if/then structure; valid/invalid only - type of deductive reasoning which describes the relationship between conditions

Question 3

decision-making

Answer 3

choosing between 2 or more alternatives (more ambiguous than deductive reasoning)

Question 4

syllogism

Answer 4

deductive reasoning type - 2 statements that we must assume to be true plus a conclusion - all/none/some - valid/invalid/indeterminate

Question 5

affirming the antecedent

Answer 5

“if…” part is true = valid

Question 6

affirming the consequent

Answer 6

“then…” part is true = invalid

Question 7

denying the antecedent

Answer 7

“if” part is false = invalid

Question 8

denying the consequent

Answer 8

“then” part is false = valid conclusion

Question 9

dual process theory

Answer 9

type 1 processing = fast automatic

type 2 processing = slow and controlled focused attn

Question 10

negative terms

Answer 10

add cognitive burden

Question 11

belief bias effect

Answer 11

based on prior beliefs or knowledge, related to top down processing

Question 12

confirmation bias

Answer 12

looking for evidence to support a certain claim rather than evidence of the other

Question 13

decision-making heuristics

Answer 13

strategies that tend to produce a correct solution

Question 14

representative heuristic

Answer 14

we judge a sample to be representative of a larger group and of a prototype - often look for random outcomes more likely than orderly outcomes (e.g. 21.97 vs. 22.22 grocery total - would think the 2222 is unusual but it’s just as common as the others)

Question 15

small sample fallacy

Answer 15

wrong assumption that a small sample of the population from which it is selected - it’s less likely to be representative of a population

Question 16

base rate fallacy

Answer 16

paying too little attention base rate (how often something occurs in population)

Question 17

conjunction rule

Answer 17

the probability of two events cannot be greater than the probability of either event individually happening

Question 18

conjunction fallacy

Answer 18

judging that 2 events have greater probability of occurring together than either individual event

Question 19

availability heuristic

Answer 19

estimating the frequency or probability of something based on how easy it is to think of examples

Question 20

recency and availability

Answer 20

better memory for things you’ve seen recently therefore distorting how frequent you think it occurs

Question 21

familiarity and availability

Answer 21

how familiar you are with the issue can impact your impression of how big an issue is

Question 22

recognition heuristic

Answer 22

comparing the relative frequency - if you are more familiar with something you might think there is a higher frequency

Question 23

illusory correlation

Answer 23

when people believe two variables are connected - often relate to stereotypes

Question 24

anchoring and adjustment heuristic / anchoring effect

Answer 24

begin with the first approximation which serves as an anchor an make adjustments from there - e.g. price, first price serves as point of comparison - often relied upon too much and adjustments are too small

Question 25

belief bias

Answer 25

relying too heavily on beliefs

Question 26

confirmation bias

Answer 26

prefer to confirm a current hypothesis rather than reject it

Question 27

anchoring and adjustment heuristic research

Answer 27

kahneman and tversky - starting with 1x8x4 then 8x4 – estimated that the one starting with the larger number would be higher

Question 28

confidence interval

Answer 28

range within which we expect a number to fall - but can be too confident

Question 29

framing effect

Answer 29

outcome can be influenced by 2 factors

background context of the choice

the way in which a question is worded or framed

ticket $20, lost $20 etc. - issue - perception

Question 30

prospect theory

Answer 30

people’s tendency to think possible gains are different from possible gains:

possible gains - people avoid risks

possible losses - people seek risks to avoid the losses

Question 31

overconfidence about decisions

Answer 31

confidence higher than it shoudl be

Question 32

illusory correlation

Answer 32

confident two variables are related but they’re not

Question 33

people overestimate…

Answer 33

their own skills, leaderships abilities, academic sklils, etc.

Question 34

cultural differences

Answer 34

impact confidence

Question 35

planning fallacy

Answer 35

underestimating the amount of time required to complete a project

Question 36

how to avoid planning fallacy

Answer 36

divide project into sub parts and estimate time reqd

envision each step

try thinking about someone else -how long would they take

Question 37

crystal ball technique

Answer 37

asking decision makers to imagine that a completely accurate ccrystal ball has determined that their favoured hypothesis is incorrect and therefore they must search for alternate eplanations

Question 38

hindsight bias

Answer 38

judgment about events that happened in the past - as though we knew it all along to match our present knowledge

Question 39

maximizers vs. satisficers decision-making style

Answer 39

maximizers - examine as many options as possible and experience more depression and regreT

settle for something that is satisfactory, not concerned about another shift that is better at another location