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BIO220 > BIO220 Lecture 22 > Flashcards

BIO220 Lecture 22 Flashcards

Greenhouse gasses & climate change

1
Q

Earth entered __th major ice age 2.58 million years ago

A

5

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2
Q

Ice age has alternating ___ and ___ periods

A

glacial & interglacial

- sinusoidal temperature changes

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3
Q

We are exiting the interglacial period in the next…

A

10-50 thousand years

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4
Q

long-term prediction of climate? short-term?

A

long-term: entering glacial period

short-term:

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5
Q

4 pioneers of climate prediction

A
  • Tyndall
  • Arrhenius
  • Bjerknes
  • Richardson
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6
Q

Tyndall’s contribution

A

How different gasses absorb radiation

  • greenhouse effect of water vapour (how water holds heat)
  • diff gasses store diff amounts of heat
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7
Q

Arrhenius’s contribution

A

Overall effect of CO2 as a greenhouse gas

  • double CO2 = 4*C increase in global temperature
  • alternating glacial & interglacial periods due to fluctuations in CO2 concentration
  • coal burning will fend off next ice age
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8
Q

Milankovich cycles

A

interglacial & glacial cycles based on wobbling of earth’s axis and our position in the universe

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9
Q

Why do we have alternating glacial & interglacial periods?

A
  • Arrhenius: CO2 concentration
  • Milankovich: wobbling of earth’s axis
    ^ both contribute
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10
Q

Bjerknes’s contribution

A

Primitive equations for modelling weather

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11
Q

Richardson’s contribution

A

Calculate first numerical weather prediction

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12
Q

ENIAC’s breakthrough prediction in 1950

A

predicted 24h of weather in 24h

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13
Q

What can we predict far in advance: weather or climate?

A

climate

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14
Q

why can’t we predict weather far in advance?

A
  • chaotic nature

- estimation & computation limitations

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15
Q

CLIMATE

A

statistics of weather

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16
Q

How to predict future climate?

A

Look at mean weather for current month + standard deviations -> project forward.
e.g. April 2014 is 10C +- 5C, so April 2020 will probably be about the same

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17
Q

IPCC

A

intergovernmental panel on climate change

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18
Q

Backward prediction (climate)

A

Use method of predicting future climate for data in 1990, and see if predicted result match real result of 2000
- allow us to see if our method of prediction is good

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19
Q

Different groups are studying climate around the world. What do they do?

A
  • model building
  • collect data on past climates
  • validation & approve causes
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20
Q

IPCC was established by __ in __

A

UN;

1988

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21
Q

What does the IPCC do?

A

Review all available research and get a central central opinion -> core findings on climate that everyone can agree
- does not do its own research

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22
Q

Why was IPCC established?

A

avoid “alarmist” projections by independent scientists

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23
Q

Albedo effect

A

Cools earth; reflection of solar radiation back into space

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24
Q

Greenhouse effect

A

Heats earth; traps infrared radiation emitted by the Earth

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25
Q

__ of the solar radiation is absorbed by the Earth’s surface

A

1/2

26
Q

___ radiation is emitted from Earth’s surface

A

infrared

27
Q

Past climate cooling is associated with… (Albedo effect)

A

uplift of mountain ranges -> snowy regions

28
Q

What reflects the most light? What problem does this cause?

A 
Snow > crops > forest > water;
When snow (75%) melts to water (5%) due to heat, Earth with heat even MORE
29
Q

Keeling’s annual measurement of CO2 in Hawaii showed…

A

sinusoidal fluctuations

  • drop due to northern summer (photosynthesis)
  • rises due to northern winter
30
Q

Keeling’s measurement of CO2 in Hawaii showed…

A

upward trend if you put many years together

31
Q

Major greenhouse gasses ranked by the relative effect per molecule (least -> most). Also list their sources.

A
  1. H2O
  2. CO2 (respiration, combustion)
  3. CH4 (anaerobic organic decomposition, grazing)
  4. N2O (denitrification, combustion)
  5. CFC (refrigerants, spray can)
32
Q

Removing which greenhouse gas would have the biggest impact on improving Earth? Why?

A

CO2;

Even though it does not have as much of an effect as the other greenhouse gasses, there are many more molecules of it

33
Q

Which counties are the biggest emitters of CO2?

A
  • China (overall)

- Canada & Australia (emission/capita)

34
Q

Why are Canada & Australia such big emitters of CO2?

A
  • mining
  • oil extraction
  • forestry?
35
Q

Trend: global avg temp

A

increase

36
Q

trend: global avg sea level

A

increase

37
Q

trend: northern hemisphere snow cover

A

decrease

38
Q

Trend: temp changes by region

A
  • overall: increase

- each reach increase slightly differently

39
Q

What is mostly likely the driving factor of temp increase?

A

CO2

40
Q

Trend: current CO2 levels

A

exponential increase

  • before: sinusoidal
  • higher than ever before
41
Q

Manifestations of current climate change

A
  1. exponential increase of CO2
  2. costal areas of Greenland & Antarctica loosing ice
  3. sea-level rise
  4. loss of Arctic sea ice
42
Q

Rising sea level ___ previous estimate. Data from…

A

matches;

IPCC & Merrifield (independent group)

43
Q

According to current predictions, we will be ice-free in the Arctic by…

A

2050

44
Q

Sakura flowering time data shows…

A

Spring was getting here later and later, but suddenly started getting here earlier

45
Q

Why is the cause of warming not due to increased solar activity? (which data does not match)

A
  • nighttime temp rising faster than daytime ones

- troposphere heating & stratosphere cooling

46
Q

Warming trends that we see

A
  • poles warm faster than mid-latitudes
  • winter warm faster than summer
  • nighttime temp rising faster than daytime ones
  • troposphere heating & stratosphere cooling
47
Q

Why is the cause of warming not just due to solar & volcanic activity?

A

Models:

  1. solar & volcanic activity
  2. greenhouse gas activity
  3. all of the above

Impose model on real data: 3 matches the best

48
Q

Research from Berkley on climate heating results

A
  • graph temperature of earth
  • put best-fit line
  • best fit line = activity from CO2 and volcanic eruptions
49
Q

Effect of volcanic eruptions

A
  • release lots of soot
  • reflect solar radiation back to atm
  • cools earth dramatically (set global warming back 10 years)
  • “year summer never came” -> bad for farming
50
Q

Who were the Berkley scientists funded by?

A

Koch Brothers (skeptics, oil industry) & Gates Foundation

51
Q

post-____rise in temperature is due to ___, says IPCC

A

1956;

humans

52
Q

most of the globe (2000-2010) warmed up by __C compared to 1900-1910

A

2

53
Q

80 years from now, Earth’s temp will increase about __C

A

4-6

54
Q

Rising temp effects on human health

A
  • some disease will die because too hot for vectors to survive (malaria)
  • malnutrition
  • deaths from extreme weather
  • cardio-diseases due to bad air quality
  • reduce cold-related deaths
  • more diarrheal diseases
55
Q

Weather events will become more extreme because…

A

atmospheric heat engine will be more powerful

56
Q

limitations of global climate model

A
  • hard to model clouds
  • coupling of land-ocean atmospheres weak
  • can’t make small-region predictions
57
Q

GCM

A

global climate model

58
Q

What was the highest temp in the past? When?

A

Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Max (PETM), 56 MYA

  • 6C increase in 20 000 years
  • much higher temp than now
  • spiked in both temp and CO2
59
Q

PETM was most likely due to…

A
  • some positive feedback mechanism

- melting of frozen methane from ocean (clathrate gun hypothesis)

60
Q

PETM events

A
  • mass extinction of oceanic organisms
  • oceans acidified from CO2 -> animals can’t make carbonate shells
  • migration of species & biomes
  • dwarfing of mammals
  • leaf sizes shrink, increased insect
  • wet tropical forest -> dry savannah
  • arctic -> swamps
61
Q

Bergmann’s rule

A
  • larger organisms in colder climates

- smaller organisms in hotter climates

BIO220 (24 decks)

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