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BIO220 > BIO220 Lecture 19 > Flashcards

BIO220 Lecture 19 Flashcards

Human population ecology

1
Q

Humans are a very unique species that need an ___ perspective, and have ___, ___, ___ issues.

A

ecosystem;
political;
sociological;
ethical

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2
Q

The carrying capacity of the Earth is limited by…

A
  • food supply

- land (space)

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3
Q

What impact do humans have on natural systems?

A
  • population size
  • consumption
  • technology
  • affluence (have a lot of money)
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4
Q

Growth trajectory: shape & assumptions

A

shape: density-dependent, exponential
assumptions: rates are constant, [births + immigration] > [death + emigration]

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5
Q

immigration vs. emigration

A

immigration: move into population
emigration: move out of population

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6
Q

problem with growth trajectory model

A

too simple, populations cannot continue to grow unchecked

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7
Q

model/formula for exponential growth trajectory

A 
dN/dt = rN
N_t = (N_0)(e^rt)
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8
Q

with is the simplest model of density-dependent regulation of growth?

A

logistic growth model

  • dN/dt = rN[(K-N)/K)
  • sigmoidal curve
  • carrying capacity K
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9
Q

what was the first really successful ecology textbook?

A

The Great APPES

by Allee et. al

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10
Q

in the mid-20th century, ___ was viewed as an ecological law

A

logistic growth model

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11
Q

What was was predicted by Allee et. al in 1940’s regarding human growth?

A

Human population should level off at 2.6 billion (predicted until 2010)
Current population: 2.4 billion

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12
Q

What is the current population (2011)?

A

7 billion +

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13
Q

Human population growth curve looks…

A

exponential rather than logistic

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14
Q

Why did extrapolating from logistic growth model give poor prediction for human growth?

A 
Statistical error:
- extrapolating is dangerous
- logistic curve is too simple
Biological:
- logistic allows no overshoots
- logistic assumes r and K are constant
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15
Q

If we allow populations to overshoot K, what will the population model look like?

A
  • dramatic overshoot (exponential growth)
  • dramatic crash (exponential decrease)
    = sinusoidal wave (mean of wave is K)
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16
Q

Why is current human population growing so fast?

A
  • birth rate has always been high, but now, death rate is very low (technology, medicine, sanitation, nutritious foods)
  • slightly increase in fertility
  • increased K due to changes in agriculture (genetics, machine, fertilizers, biocides)
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17
Q

Growth (r) depends on…

A

fertility rates (bx) & mortality (inverse Lx)

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18
Q

What is the UN’s guess about human growth trajectory?

A

level off at about 9 billion (maybe)

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19
Q

current observations on human growth trajectory

A

still growing exponentially, but much slower

  • 2% growth/year (x^2) -> 1.2% (x^1.2)
  • 74 million increase/year
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20
Q

leveling off the growth trajectory requires…

A
  • less birth

- more deaths

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21
Q

___ structure affects trajectory

A

age

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22
Q

Shape of age pyramid: fast-growing populations

A

high momentum;

broad base, small tip: even if r = 0, populations keep growing as children reach reproductive age

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23
Q

shape of age pyramid: slow-growing populations

A

low momentum;

broad middle

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24
Q

Who made the first estimate of human capacity of earth? What was his estimate?

A

Antoni van Leewenhoek;

  1. 4 billion
    - estimated land area of globe & applied density of Holland
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25
Q

Leewenhoek invented…

A

the microscope

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26
Q

What was seen in Cohen’s history of K estimate?

A

the carrying capacity prediction varies more as times are more modern

27
Q

The real answer to human K depends on…

A

how people are living

28
Q

Who said that human K depends on how people are living?

A

Lester Brown

29
Q

Current food production can support ___ people if we consume like India

A

10 billion

30
Q

Current food production can support ___ people if we consume like Canada/US

A

2.5 billion

31
Q

Demographic Transition Model

A
  1. Pre-industrial: birth & death rate high (r = 0)
  2. Death rates fall -> population boom
  3. Birth rates fall -> growth rate slows
  4. Birth & death rates equilibrate (r = 0)
32
Q

death rates might fall because of…

A
  • sanitation

- vaccination

33
Q

birth rates might fall because of…

A
  • contraception
  • changing cultural values
  • later marriage
34
Q

Changes in age distribution have profound consequences for…

A
  • economy
  • social structure
  • government programs (based on more people paying into system than those collecting out of it)
35
Q

dependency ratio

A

ratio of youth + elderly : working adults

36
Q

What causes spikes in death rates?

A
  • epidemics
  • famine
  • war
37
Q

baby boom “echo”

A
  • children born during the baby boom had children themselves
38
Q

baby boom

A

after WWII, people wanted to “replenish the population” to replace those who died in the war

39
Q

when do we usually see baby booms?

A

after wars

40
Q

what causes fertility to decline?

A
  • government policy
  • decision by parents (greater survival of children, children too expensive, society can take care of them in old age, overpopulation)
  • contraception/abortion
  • marry later
41
Q

which countries have government policies to control population growth?

A
  • China

- India

42
Q

Where are human populations growing the fastest?

A

Middle East & Africa

43
Q

Where are human populations not growing?

A

nowhere, just some places faster than others

44
Q

where has the highest GDP?

A

US has most GDP/capita

45
Q

30 years ago, what were the fastest growing populations?

A
  • Latin America
  • China
  • India
46
Q

Which counties has the highest 2011 population?

A
  • China

- Inda

47
Q

Problem: GDP/capita vs. population growth

A

If we want to equalize population growth with resource distribution: populations that are growing the fastest has the least GDP/capita

48
Q

Will demographic transition model be seen in developing countries?

A

Unsure

  • unsure why fertility rates fall
  • death rates still high (infections, HIV)
  • some places oppose contraception

Maybe if women can be educated & given contraception methods, as well as economic opportunites

49
Q

Different views on population issues: what were the 2 sides?

A

Neo-Malthusians vs. Cornucopians

50
Q

Neo-Malthusians was founded by ___. Their view?

A

Malthus (current leader: Enrlich)

  • growth is controlled by natural selection
  • continued human population growth is unsustainable
  • current level is probably unsustainable
  • over-consumption will exhaust K
51
Q

Cornucopian was founded by ___. Their view?

A

Simon (economist)

  • technological improvements will increase K
  • population can grow without limits
  • when resources become limited -> demand increase -> new technologist allow more harvest
52
Q

Paul Ehrlich is famous for ___. He helped found ____, and urge governments to ___.

A

The Population Bomb;
Zero Population Growth;
curb birthrates

53
Q

Julian Simon believes that ___ forces can solve problems

A

market

54
Q

what was the first Ehrlich-Simon bet? Outcome?

A

Metal (Ni, Sn, Cr, W, Cu) prices raise/drop from 1980 -> 1990?
Ehrlich lost: all metals became cheaper due to substitution

55
Q

What was the Simon-David South bet? Outcome?

A

Will resource prices raise due to scarcity? Will market price of lumber rise/fall over the next 5 years (1996)?
Simon lost: lumber prices went down

56
Q

What was the second Ehrlich-Simon bet (1994)? Outcome?

A

Will selected conditions affected humans get worse/better?

  • temperature: warmer
  • atmospheric CO2, N2O, ozone, SO2: more
  • crop-land per person: less
  • firewood/person: less
  • area of tropical forest: less
  • fishery harvest/person: less
  • species of wildlife: less
  • death from AIDS: more
  • sperm count, reproductive disorders: less, more
  • gap in wealth: increase

Simon refused bet (would have lost)

57
Q

Why is managing populations not popular with left or right-winged political views?

A

left: rich countries shouldn’t boss poor countries around and dictate how much they want to have babies
right: birth control is wrong

58
Q

How do we address population growth in a good way?

A

Give women education, legal rights, access to contraception

  • fertility rates fall
  • standard of living goes up
  • no compulsion (force)
59
Q

There have been no countries in the pre-industrial phase of demographic transition since…

A

Rwanda in 1990s (war)

60
Q

countries in phase 2 of demographic transition

A
  • Uganda
  • Nigeria
  • Angola
61
Q

countries in phase 3 of demographic transition

A
  • India
  • Brazil
  • Bangledesh
  • US
62
Q

countries in phase 4 of demographic transition

A
  • Japan
  • Russia
  • Italy
  • China
63
Q

Economic development in ___ and ___ accounts for much of recent rise

A

India & China

64
Q

which country had the largest INCREASE in GDP/capita? Which country has the largest GDP/capita?

A

China;

US

BIO220 (24 decks)

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