4 - The External Environment Flashcards
What are Taleb’s black swans?
Unknown unknowns
What can we do re. black swans when developing strategy?
Have a generic plan of how we will deal with their inevitable emergence
3 categories of risks/uncertainties that business face
- Environmental
- Technological
- Human
4 layers of boundary within which an org operates
- Organisation
- Competitors and markets (micro)
- Industry or sector (micro)
- Macro environment
What is changeability re. the external environment?
The degree to which the external environment is likely to change
What is predictability re. the external environment?
The degree to which macro changes can be predicted
What is PESTEL used for?
A model for the analysis and deeper interrogation of the macro environment
What does PESTEL stand for?
Political
Economic
Socio-cultural
Technological
Environmental
Legal
How is PESTEL analysis most frequently presented?
Tabular structure (additional column to further expand / refer back to the org being considered)
Which PESTEL is most important / significant?
This is completely dependent on the org in question, their priorities/mission, and the sector that they exist in
4 common forces under first E of PESTEL
- Interest rates
- Currency exchange rates
- Inflation rates
- Economic growth rate
2 key aspects of S within PESTEL
Demographics (eg. ageing population, more people to look after, less people willing to look after them)
Wealth distribution (greater wealth disparity constraining areas of consumption)
3 key forces within T of PESTEL
Tech push or market pull (will tech aid us in effective business or force us down a particular route)
People skill divergence (need for technologically capable individuals must be recognised, many ordinary jobs will be done by robots)
Diffusion (process and timing of spread of use of certain technology)
3 aspects of second E of PESTEL
- Sustainability and stewardship
- Global warming
- Public conscience
4 specific legal areas to consider re. PESTEL
- Labour and employment laws
- Environmental protection legislation and consumer regulation
- Finance, taxation and reporting requirements
- Ownership, merger and competition law
3 types of forecasting - Johnson (2017)
Single-point forecasting
Range forecasting
Alternative futures forecasting (number of fixed-point outcomes)