week 7 Flashcards
decision making
- identifying and choosing alternative solutions that lead to an end desired result
Simon’s normative models
bounded rationality
-> constraints that restrict rational desicion making
- > satisficing
- > choosing a sloution that meets a minimum standard of acceptance
the optimizing model
- need for a decision
- > whats important
- > alternatives
- > assess them
- > choose the best
heuristics
- rule of thumb
- > people use to make decisions and judgements quickly and efficiently
- > mental shortcuts
- > coming to a conclusion or decision
decision making biases
- status quo bias
- > anchoring bias
- escalation of commitment
- > confirmation bias
- > framing bias
- status quo bias
- -> refers to a preference for the current state of affairs
- -> current baseline is taken as a reference point, and any change from that is perceived as a loss
decision making biases
-> anchoring bias
–> occurs when decision makers are influenced by the first information received about a decision
decision making biases
- escalation of commitment
–> refers to the tendency to stick to an ineffective course of action even when it is unlikely that the bad situation can be reversed
decision making biases
confirmation bias
- refers to seeking or attending more to information that supports your initial idea, belief or attitude
framing bias
-> refers to the tendency to consider risks about gains differently than risks pertaining to losses
overconfidence bias
-> tendency to be overconfident about estimates or forecasts
estimating / forecasting biases
-> availability heuristic is tendency to base decisions on information that is readily available in memory
forecasting (dawes)
- intuitive judgement never beats a weighted regression
two disciplines
- > gestalt
- -> a person has a problem
- -> has a goal and reaquires thought
- > information processing theory
- -> incremental steps to be followed after a particular problem re-presentation was generated
problem solving as search
- problem space
- > problem solver’s internal representation of a problem
- problem states
- > states of knowledge
- operators
- > the means of moving from one state to another
two types of heuristics
- hill climbing
- > always opt for a step that would move him or her higher
- > local considerations
- means end analysis
- > takes into account the bigger picture
- > reduce the difference between the current goal state
creating problem solving model
- exploring the challenge
- > people are supposed to identify, clarify, and overwise clearly define the problem to be confronted
- idea finding or idea generation
- > generate ideas for possible solutions to problems as it has been defined or represented
- preparing for action
- > choose one of the possibilities produced during idea generation and refine it
creativity
- production of high quality, original and elegant solutions to problems
- more than idea creation
- a form of performance
- finding and solving problems and offering new solutions
- iterative process
economic models of decision making - racial economic model
- decision making is and should be a rational process
- sequence of steps that enhance probability of attaining a desired outcome
