W10_lec2 Flashcards
What does it mean when someone is known to be a good intuitive statistician?
it means that ppl are able to decide which of two options are advantageous even in cases where there is uncertainty
Describe the law of small numbers
the tendency we have to jump to conclusions based on a small set of information
“Linda is thirty-one years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a
student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice and also
participated in antinuclear demonstrations” Based on this which option is someone more likely to choose? is this the correct ANS? Why?
a) Linda is a bank teller
b) Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement
Someone is more likely to pick b as the passage mentions information about being a feminist while showing no information about being a bank teller. however, a is the more likely ANS as it is more likely that someone is either a bank teller or feminist than both
Chris flips a coin 5 times. Which outcome is more likely? What type of bias of judgment and reasoning is this related to?
a) HHHHH
b) HTTHT
All of the above are equally as likely as the chances of getting either a Head or tail is 50% however, most would likely choose b due to the perception of randomness
Describe human randomness perception. provide an example
a bias in which humans tend to under/over-represent certain patterns based on an unbiased random process. For instance, they are more likely to see a pattern of boy-girl-boy-girl more random than boy-boy-boy-boy despite the chances of having either still being 50%
Despite the DEC in violent crime rate over the years why might ppl believe that the violent crime rate is INC?
B/c of the tendency to believe that something is iNC/more likely when it comes to mind more easily. Over the years, we have INC’s ability to share info so it seems violent crimes have INC but instead it’s just easier to spread info about violent crimes
“Tornadoes are judged to be more likely killers than asthma, although the latter cause 20 times more deaths” This is an example of what?
the availability principle is where you are more likely to judge tornadoes as more likely killers as they tend to cause more destruction however more ppl in general to have asthma. That being said you have probably experienced many who have yet to die from it
Describe the loss aversion bias.
its the tendency to avoid losses over achieving equivalent gains due to the act of feeling more pain from losses then pleasure from gains of the same size
based on the loss aversion which of the following are you likely to choose
a) 50% chance to win $1000
b) get $500
b
based on the loss aversion which of the following are you likely to choose
a) 50% chance to lose $1000
b) lose $500 for sure
a
according to the loss aversion bias “At a given reference point, a loss
of _______ amount is perceived as more negative than a gain of _____ amount is perceived as positive”
a) X, X
b) X, Y
c) Y, X
d) all of the above
e) none of the above
a - the same
Using the following during a colonoscopy ANS the following
a) objectively who experienced the most pain?
b) who reported the most pain?
c) describe the reasoning for these results
d) how does this relate to duration neglect?
a) patient B
b) Patient A
c) this is due to the bias of the peak-end rule as the average b/w the peak pain and the end was much lower for patient B compared to patient A
d) this indicates that the retrospective (looking back on or dealing with past events) evaluation of the pain is indep from the length of the procedure
