voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
how does class affect voting patterns
- traditionally working class (D and E) have votes for Labour, linking to trade unions
- middle class (A and B) tend to vote for Conservatives as they own more assets
- privatisation and decline of trade union power under Thatcher reduced the size of Labour
- change in 1997 when there was a switch across classes to Labour under Blair
- middle class are more likely to vote as they have more assets at stake
- in 2010, 76% of the two highest social classes voted, compared to 57% for the two lowest
- class dealignment
define class dealignment
individuals no longer associate themselves with a class and thus do not vote for who they are expected to
how does party loyalty affect voting patterns
- partisan dealignment
- people are now less likely to instilled by family traditions on voting
- more people are swing voters and open to persuasion from either party
- disillusion and apathy
- in 1979, 81% of electorate voted for either Labour or Conservatives and has fallen to 74% in 1997 and 65% by 2010
define partisan dealignment
decline in individuals attachment and loyalty to a certain party
define disillusion
disappointment in the party and politics and believe they cannot solve problems or make a difference
define apathy
lack of interest or enthusiasm in politics
how does gender affect voting patterns
- women are slightly more likely to vote conservative, most likely due traditional tory values on family
- in blair era, voting habits between genders lessened as women were now more likely to have a job and labour had more family friendly policies
- older women tend to vote conservatives (2019- 30% 18-24 compared to 42% over 65)
- turnout is the same
how does age affect voting patterns
- older people usually vote conservative as they have more material interests
- younger people are less likely to vote idealistically
- older generations may remember difficulties faced by Labour in 1970
- in 2019, 61% of over 65 voted conservatives, versus 25% of 18-24)
- as a result, conservatives factor in policies for older people like triple pension lock
- older people are more likely to vote (76% of over 65 in 2010, but 44% for 18-24)
- young people are more disillusioned by politics
how does ethnicity affect voting pattern
- ethnic minorities more likely to vote labour, which may overlap with class
- asians are more likely to vote conservatives because they respond to party’s emphasis on small business values
- in 2010, ethnic minorities preferred labour by 60% to 26%
- white peoples re more likely to vote- 67% in 2010 compare to 51% of ethnic minorities
how does region affect voting pattern
- most votes in south and rural or suburbs are conservatives
- cities like london vote labour
- north england and wales tend to vote labour
- turnout is lowest in northern ireland, perhaps due to the political situation stabilising
demographic factors affecting voting patterns
- class
- gender
- age
- region
- ethnicity
how does rational choice theory explain voting patterns
- voters act like consumers and evaluate the most beneficial options
- more educated electorate
- look at manifestos and choose the party that most closely aligns with them
- however doesn’t show where voters disagree with the party
how does issue voting affect voting patterns
- voters make a decision on a range of issue by becoming aware and having an opinion on an issue, and then voting for the party with follows their views
- however, it is problematic as it relied on high political engagement and doesn’t explain all voting patterns, like voting preferring labour in 1987 and 1992 but still voting conservative
how does valence or revised rational choice theory explain voting patterns
- people support the party best able to deliver on issues they care about
- how much they trust the party to deliver and who would be the best PM to manage the country and economy
- governing competency
define governing competency and examples
perceived ability for governing party in office to manage the affairs if state effect jekyll
- major lost power in 1997 when electorate thought he couldn’t handle financial crisis
- johnson was voted in as people believe he could deliver brexit
how does party leader affect voting patterns
- charisma and personality party leaders
- johnson still had faith due to his charismatic nature
how does economic model explain voting patterns
- voters are more likely to support the party that has managed the economy successfully
- vote for the party that will bring economic prosperity
- can be influenced by inflation, unemployment and interest rates
- conservatives managed to win in 2010 due to financial crisis
- people reluctant to vote labour due to perceived poor handling of economy
define opinion polls
assess popularity of political parties by asking a sample of people how they intend to vote
conducted by Ipsos MORI, Populus and YouGov
examples of opinion polls being wrong
1992- failed to predict Major’s majority as polls predicted narrow Labour victory or hung parliament, may be due to boomerang effect where people voted after seeing outcome of opinion polls or due to “shy tories”
2015- predicted hung parliament but conservatives got a majority with 36.9% of the vote, may be due to inaccurate representation in opinion polls
examples of opinion polls being right
2015- predicted SNP over Labour in scotland
define internal poll
poll within party, including members and MPs, on internal party matters
define exit poll
asking people as they leave polling stations how they voted and seen as one of the most accurate polling- John Curtice
define focus group
group of people asked more in depth questions to see why outcomes have happened
how can opinion polls influence politics
- influence policy direction and party leadership
- “bandwagon effect” - vote for the party they think will win
